Fault type analysis along the San Andreas Fault zone: A numerical approach

Finite Element (FE) modeling under plane stress condition is used to analyze the fault type variation with depth along and around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) zone. In this simulation elastic rheology was used and was thought justifiable as the variation in depth from 0.5 km to 20 km was considered. Series of calculations were performed with the variation in domain properties. Three types of models were created based on simple geological map of California, namely, 1) single domain model considering whole California as one homogeneous domain, 2) three domains model including the North American plate, Pacific plate, and SAF zone as separate domains, and 3) Four domains model including the three above plus the Garlock Fault zone. Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion and Byerlee's law were used for the calculation of failure state. All the models were driven by displacement boundary condition imposing the fixed North American plate and Pacific plate motion along N34°W vector up to the northern terminus of SAF and N50°E vector motion for the subducting the Gorda and Juan de Fuca plates. Our simulated results revealed that as the depth increased, the fault types were generally normal, and at shallow depth greater strike slip and some thrust faults were formed. It is concluded that SAF may be terminated as normal fault at depth although the surface expression is clearly strike slip.     

金融危机下国家大规模投资政策模拟

构建了一个中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型(MReCGE-C),利用该模型分析了我国应对国际金融危机的大规模投资政策。MReCGE-C根据城乡属性和年龄结构对居民进行了分组,放松了要素流动的限制,使劳动力和资本可以同时跨区域跨部门流动,并设计了一种基于居民终生效用的区域均衡机制,通过区域差距变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用MReCGE-C模型针对国家大规模投资计划下的3种典型投资方案进行了模拟。结果发现在等量新增投资下,针对中部地区投资方案的GDP增长率高于针对中西部和全国投资方案的GDP增长率,同时针对中部地区投资方案对于城乡就业的拉动也要优于其余两种投资方案,而且可以实现缩小区域差距的目标。综合比较,目前国家大规模投资的优势应该指向中部地区。     

基于实体建模的三维地层构造

以三维实体模型为基础,提出了三维地层实体模型,给出了三维实体地层模型的体系数据结构和几何拓扑结构,完整描述了三维地层模型。给出了地层模型的构造过程,并讨论了地层缺失、倒转等的特殊地质状况的构模处理方法。三维地层实体模型是完整,全面的地层模型,比基于多层网格和三棱柱体元的地层模型具有更多的优点。     

Quantifying the effect of in-stream rock clasts on the retardation of heat along a stream

With the introduction of Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) into the field of hydrology, temperature has become a powerful tracer in both space and time. However, the interpretation of the observed temperature signal is often not straightforward due to its non-conservative behavior. The objective of this research is to explore and quantify the retardation of heat along a small first order stream, with the long-term objective of identifying different runoff mechanisms by using heat as a tracer.     

Higher-order compositional modeling with Fickian diffusion in unstructured and anisotropic media

We present advances in compositional modeling of two-phase multi-component flow through highly complex porous media. Higher-order methods are used to approximate both mass transport and the velocity and pressure fields. We employ the Mixed Hybrid Finite Element (MHFE) method to simultaneously solve, to the same order, the pressure equation and Darcy's law for the velocity. The species balance equation is approximated by the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approach, combined with a slope limiter. In this work we present an improved DG scheme where phase splitting is analyzed at all element vertices in the two-phase regions, rather than only as element averages. This approximation is higher-order than the commonly employed finite volume method and earlier DG approximations. The method reduces numerical dispersion, allowing for an accurate capture of shock fronts and lower dependence on mesh quality and orientation. Further new features are the extension to unstructured grids and support for arbitrary permeability tensors (allowing for both scalar heterogeneity, and shear anisotropy). The most important advancement in this work is the self-consistent modeling of two-phase multi-component Fickian diffusion. We present several numerical examples to illustrate the powerful features of our combined MHFE–dg method with respect to lower-order calculations, ranging from simple two component fluids to more challenging real problems regarding CO₂ injection into a vertical domain saturated with a multi-component petroleum fluid.     

汾渭地震带地震趋势数学建模分析

按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震带的划分方案, 使用Mapsis软件选取了汾渭地震带1000年以来M_S4.7以上地震, 这样的地震资料应具有地质单元的统一性。 使用数学中19阶多项式模型, 对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合, 并递推未来1—2年时间尺度预测。 模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取。 引用一种数学方法来描述汾渭地震带的地震趋势规律。     

地震预报实验场:科学问题与科学目标

本文简要回顾了以往地震预报实验场的经验教训,讨论了新一代地震预报实验场的实施策略。汲取汶川地震的经验启示,本文提出"地震博弈"策略,即考虑中长期地震预测的可用性与不确定性,在监测与实验系统设计中考虑地震活动和地震构造相依的区域模型。对于特定的活动断裂或活动地块边界带的潜在强震段落,设置适应多种孕震模型的"想定地震破裂",针对地震孕育的"想定模式"设计观测项目和监测系统。这一系统以地震成因和孕震模型的有效约束、"预期"前兆的有效监测、预测/预报效能的有效检验为导向。从技术角度,本文提出将地震预报实验场作为一个"大科学工程",强调复杂的多层次、多组分技术系统性能的稳健性,以及为确保与地震有效的"近距离接触"的系统可持续性。     

动态构建福建紫金山铜金矿矿体模型

为了将不同边界品位情况下矿体的形态及由边界品位变化引起的矿体形态变化程度在计算机中动态、实时地展现,同时也为了解矿体在不同工业指标条件下的空间形态,进行了矿体动态建模方法研究。采用了一种新的、基于矿体属性模型向其几何结构模型转化的方法--克里格块体法。通过该方法,基于指示克里格估值技术,使用块体模型＋实体模型的三维数据模型结构,动态地构建出了福建上杭紫金山铜金矿矿体在不同边界品位条件下、信息充分、完备且具高可信度的矿体模型,达到了使建模结果能够真正服务于矿山勘探和生产实践的效果。该方法具有一定的可扩展和易推广的性质,能够完成大多数类似矿山及类似地质体的动态建模过程。     

Formation and deformation processes of late Paleogene sedimentary basins in southern central Hokkaido,Japan: Paleomagnetic and numerical modeling approach

Formation and deformation processes of the late Paleogene sedimentary basins related to a strike–slip fault system in southern central Hokkaido are described by a combination of paleomagnetic study and numerical analysis. After correction of the Miocene counter‐clockwise rotation associated with back‐arc opening of the Japan Sea, paleomagnetic declination data obtained from surface outcrops in the Umaoi and Yubari areas show significant easterly deflections. Although complicated differential rotation is anticipated as a result of recent thrust movements, clockwise rotation in the study areas is closely linked with development of the Paleogene Minami‐naganuma Basin as a pull‐apart depression along the north–south fault system. Numerical modeling suggests that 30 km of strike–slip is required to restore the distribution and volume of the Minami‐naganuma Basin. The relative slip rate on the long‐standing fault system is about 10 mm/yr, which corresponds to global‐scale plate motion. It has inevitably caused regional rearrangement of the eastern Eurasian margin. A rotation field simulated by simplified dextral motion using dislocation modeling basically accords with the paleomagnetic data around the pull‐apart basin.     

Experimental evaluation of vulnerability for urban segmental tunnels subjected to normal surface faulting

Faulting is one type of permanent ground displacement (PGD); tunnels are at the risk of damage when they are susceptible to faulting. The present study proposes an experimental approach to create the fragility curves for shallow segmental tunnels in alluvial deposits subjected to normal surface faulting. Centrifuge testing was carried out in order to achieve this purpose. The proposed approach allows evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of tunnel geometry and fault specifications. The comparison between the new fragility curves and the existing empirical curves was discussed as well. Compared to tunnels in rock, tunnels in alluvial deposits are more susceptible to failure because of different mechanisms of collapse into tunnel at large exerted PGD.