基于机器学习的格点气温预报订正方法

使用2017年9月至2021年3月国家级业务化运行的智能网格实况分析产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(EC)产品,根据湖北省的地理分布特征构建6个分区,采用基于LightGBM机器学习算法建立的气温预报方法,生成湖北省0.05°×0.05°格点气温预报产品。利用2021年4—9月的预报产品和格点实况资料进行检验,结果表明:基于机器学习的气温预报方法(MLT)取得了较好的预报效果,其在0～72 h时效内优于中央气象台下发的气温精细化指导预报(SCMOC)和EC产品;MLT在山区的误差较平原大,但山区的订正幅度大于平原,日最高气温的订正幅度大于日最低气温的订正幅度;4—9月MLT、SCMOC、EC产品的平均绝对误差(MAE)日变化都呈现了白天偏高、夜间偏低、午后凸起的单峰特征,MLT的MAE值较SCMOC和EC产品的更低,并且在转折性天气中仍具有优势;站点检验与格点检验结论一致,基于格点建模的气温预报产品对站点预报同样得到了订正。机器学习在格点气温的模式订正方面可以作为一个行之有效的手段。     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

Micromechanical viscoelasto‐plastic models and finite element implementation for rate‐independent and rate‐dependent permanent deformation of stone‐based materials

This paper presents parallel and serial viscoelasto‐plastic models to simulate the rate‐independent and the rate‐dependent permanent deformation of stone‐based materials, respectively. The generalized Maxwell viscoelastic and Chaboche's plastic models were employed to formulate the proposed parallel and serial viscoelasto‐plastic constitutive laws. The finite element (FE) implementation of the parallel model used a displacement‐based incremental formulation for the viscoelastic part and an elastic predictor—plastic corrector scheme for the elastoplastic component. The FE framework of the serial viscoelasto‐plastic model employed a viscoelastic predictor—plastic corrector algorithm. The stone‐based materials are consisted of irregular aggregates, matrix and air voids. This study used asphalt mixtures as an example. A digital sample was generated with imaging analysis from an optically scanned surface image of an asphalt mixture specimen. The modeling scheme employed continuum elements to mesh the effective matrix, and rigid bodies for aggregates. The ABAQUS user material subroutines defined with the proposed viscoelasto‐plastic matrix models were employed. The micromechanical FE simulations were conducted on the digital mixture sample with the viscoelasto‐plastic matrix models. The simulation results showed that the serial viscoelasto‐plastic matrix model generated more permanent deformation than the parallel one by using the identical material parameters and displacement loadings. The effect of loading rates on the material viscoelastic and viscoelasto‐plastic mixture behaviors was investigated. Permanent deformations under cyclic loadings were determined with FE simulations. The comparison studies showed that the simulation results correctly predicted the rate‐independent and rate‐dependent viscoelasto‐plastic constitutive properties of the proposed matrix models. Overall, these studies indicated that the developed micromechanical FE models have the abilities to predict the global viscoelasto‐plastic behaviors of the stone‐based materials. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internal erosion of chemically reinforced granular materials: a mathematical modeling approach

Internal erosion (IE) affects the stability of natural and reinforced materials by causing instability within their granular structure. The dislodgement and transport of eroded particles affect both the particulate concentration of eroding fluid and the pore network of eroded material. In this study, we examined these modifications using a transport model with a finite element code. First, IE tests on chemically reinforced sand columns were performed to obtain information about eroded material loss of mass, particulate concentration of effluent, porosity and permeability modifications, and existing IE stages. Second, based on experimental results, a mathematical one‐dimensional model has been formulated to monitor the evolution and spatial distribution of erodible solids, fluidized particles, porosity, permeability, and seepage stresses. The model consists of a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations solved in sequence. It provides valuable information about the extent and the dynamics of structural changes, which can be used to estimate an IE time for the hydraulic work to reach failure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Curve‐Number/Green–Ampt mixed procedure for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins: Parameter sensitivity analysis

A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Breach erosion of earthfill dams (BEED) model

A computer model has been developed for simulation of breach erosion of earthfill dams (BEED). The model incorporates the processes of surface erosion and slope sloughing to simulate breach enlargement. Depletion of reservoir water is approximated by a volume continuity equation while broad-crested weir hydraulics is utilized to describe flow over and through the breach. Due to the implicit form of these equations, an iterative solution is proposed with convergence achieved within only a few iterations. The BEED model is written in both FORTRAN 77 and BASIC computer languages. Testing of the model using historical data of the failures of Teton and Huaccoto dams showed that timing, shape, and magnitude of the predicted outflow hydrograph were adequately simulated by this model. The same is true for the dimensions of the terminal breach. A sensitivity analysis indicated that internal friction angle and the relation for surface erosion were the major factors affecting the model results.     

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C1, C2–C5, C6–C15 and C15+ classes of hydrocarbons formed

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.     

Some remarks on cumulus parameterization

A simple parameterization of cumulonimbus convective heating is presented. The model is primarily based on preserving a moisture budget and on detraining cloud air at levels corresponding to the neutral buoyancy of the air converged at low levels. Results are compared with data from the western Pacific and GATE. Agreement is good. Suggestions are offered for improving the model and extending it to other regions.     

云南鹤庆—丽江地区锰资源量预测：资源量模型法的应用

云南鹤庆—丽江地区是我国著名的优质富锰矿产区,已探明储量超过300×10~4t。然而该区的锰资源量前景如何?本文试图运用资源量模型法,将鹤庆矿区作为已知模型区,通过模型区与预测区的特征分析,求出类比系数。最后通过随机抽样模拟,得出各种概率下预测区锰资源量估计值。