Conflict on the Range: Evaluating Driving Factors of Attitudes Toward Prey Species in Qilianshan

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a global conservation issue of increasing concern, and understanding the factors driving conflict is crucial for preventing or mitigating it. In many parts of China, large human populations and increasing development has led to an escalation in HWC with both carnivore and prey species. In this paper we assess herder attitudes toward blue sheep (Pseudaois nayaur, Hodgson, 1833), white lipped deer (Carvus albirostris, Przewalski, 1883), red deer (Cervus elaphus, Linnaeus, 1758), and marmot (Marmota himalayana Hodgson, 1841) through interview-based surveys conducted in 46 households across 8 villages in Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu, China. We also examine the perceived impact of three ecological-restoration policies (anti-grazing, sustainable grazing, and grass-planting policies) on livelihoods, and how this affects attitudes toward wildlife. Herders reported neutral attitudes toward wildlife species in general, but reported negative attitudes towards blue sheep. Mixed-effects modeling revealed that herder attitudes toward the target species varied significantly across villages, but other socioeconomic variables had limited explanatory power for attitudes. Furthermore, we found that while policy implementation was negatively perceived by herders, anti-grazing policy implementation and total policy implementation were positively correlated with positive attitudes toward wildlife, highlighting a potential gap between perceived threats and actual threats. Finally, we show that the leading cause of reported livestock death is preventable disease, alleviation of which may help improve attitudes toward wildlife.     

基于MODE对模式预报强风风场的检验分析

基于专业气象服务领域十分关注的模式强风预报性能的客观检验和致灾性强风预警服务效果的合理性判别问题,利用一次强风过程对电网专业气象预警服务效果的检验示范,探讨基于目标(面向对象)的诊断检验方法(Method for ObjectBased Diagnostic Evaluation,MODE)对强风事件检验的适用性。通过对强风空间检验的各个关键参数的选择确定、匹配分析,发现:(1)MODE检验的卷积半径、诊断量权重和匹配阈值等参数的选择,将影响检验目标的适度聚焦和误差表达的客观性,因此需要综合考虑预报和实况场的水平分辨率、用户对该类强天气预报误差的空间和时间冗余度等;(2)MODE检验可较好地量化给出模式预报的整体效果,包括:强风落区的范围大小和位置偏差、强风过程的时间相位差等,从而可量化判别出模式在各个时刻的空报和漏报区域以及对强风过程移动速度和生命周期长度的预报性能。     

边坡监测信息可视化查询分析系统及其应用

大型边坡监测系统数据庞大,项目及测点繁多。传统的数据库管理系统很难直观地查询分析监测数据。作者用在Window 系统下面向对象的程序设计语言VisualBasic和面向对象的数据库管理开发系统Access 开发了具有可视化查询分析特征的监测信息分析管理系统。本文以五强溪水电站左岸船闸边坡为例,介绍了系统的设计和程序功能。     

基于目标分割和景观格局特征的城市土地利用分类

根据相同土地利用类型景观格局特征相似的原理,在传统遥感分类方法的基础上,结合景观生态学理论,建立了土地利用分类新方法; 应用SPOT遥感图像提取了北京市五环内的居民用地和非居民用地类型,总分类精度达到了85.9%,Kappa系数为71.1%.本研究结合学科交叉的优势,为遥感技术应用和土地利用信息提取提供了新思路.     

面向对象的配电GIS系统空间数据模型与组织

GIS在配网自动化系统中的应用越来越深入和广泛,随着配电网络各种设备的复杂性提高,传统的分析设计方式已很难满足现有配电网络的飞速发展。面向对象的分析与设计方法作为一种先进的系统设计方法,能很好地应用于规模较大、层次较复杂的配电网络设备管理。首先简要介绍配电网络的特点和面向对象的分析方法,然后结合面向对象的分析与设计方法对配电网络的对象模型和数据组织进行了详细阐述和分析,最后以一个应用系统作为实例结束本文。     

Temporality of disasters: The politics of women's livelihoods ‘after’ the 2004 tsunami in Sri Lanka

The devastation caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka is represented as a ‘natural disaster’. Yet, the tsunami did not occur in a sociopolitical and historical vacuum. How people responded to the tsunami, the challenges of and attitudes to relocation and post‐tsunami livelihoods, were/are shaped by uneven development, social exclusion and ethnonationalist war. All these responses are embedded in structures of gender, caste, class, and ethnicity. The tsunami, thus, brought to the forefront preexisting inequalities, showing up complexities in the temporality of disasters. Drawn from fieldwork in two coastal areas in the Southern and Eastern provinces, this paper shows how gendered structures within the local political economy influenced the ways that institutional actors as well as the displaced communities and women initially devised livelihood strategies. These reactions show how place matters as much as preexisting gendered political economy conditions and reveal the complex ways in which women continue to mediate and negotiate everyday responses in the aftermath of a ‘natural’ disaster.     

黔桂岩溶山区土地利用冲突强度演变及其空间分异特征

采用基于“压力-状态-响应（Press-State-Response,PSR)的土地利用冲突强度模型,评估了1990-2010年黔桂岩溶山区土地利用冲突强度演变过程,并运用探索性空间分析方法(Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA)对黔桂岩溶山区县域土地利用冲突强度变化的空间分异特征进行探讨,结果表明:（1）1990-2010年间黔桂岩溶山区土地利用冲突呈增强趋势,综合指数从0.09增长到0.30;（2）从全局空间自相关看,该区1990-2010年土地利用冲突强度存在显著空间集聚特征,且集聚态势进一步增强,时段Ⅲ压力指数、响应指数和综合指数变化量的Global Moran’s I指数为0.317 9、0.473 3和0.185 9,时段Ⅱ的Global Moran’s I值均大于时段Ⅰ的值;（3）就局域空间自相关而言,热点区、次热区趋向集聚于以贵阳市为龙头的黔中城市群、黔西南州、南宁市及其周边区域,冷点区、次冷区连片分布于黔桂峰丛洼地及其周边偏远山区。因而,建议在黔桂岩溶山区城镇化、工业化加速阶段,应优化土地利用结构,缓解土地利用冲突,以提高土地资源可持续利用水平。      

中亚各国在咸海流域水资源问题上的冲突与合作

咸海流域是中亚社会发展进程中水资源供需矛盾和生态环境问题表现最为突出的区域,已严重妨碍了经济发展和社会稳定,甚至严重影响到中亚国家间的关系. 在解决咸海问题上,中亚各国虽然都表现出了极度忧虑和希望合作解决共同问题的诚意,签订了一系列的多边和双边合作协议,付诸了较多的行动;发达国家和国际组织也多方介入,大力援助、积极斡旋,但仍未从根本上缓解咸海危机. 深入分析介绍了咸海流域的水资源及开发利用情况、中亚各国在咸海流域水资源问题上的冲突以及开展的一系列合作,探讨了咸海危机的潜在水冲突,提出了合理利用水资源,实现流域一体化管理,化解咸海危机的对策措施.     

基于行动者网络的土地利用冲突及其治理机制研究——以广州市海珠区果林保护区为例

用行动者网络分析方法,以广州市海珠区果树保护区为例,探讨土地利用冲突的演化过程、根源、类型及其治理机制。按照冲突的强度和显隐程度,土地利用冲突的演化过程大致可以区分为潜伏、显化、转变和胶着等4个阶段,但冲突循环的存在使其进一步的演变存在较大不确定性。在土地利用冲突治理过程中,各种社会行动者通过协商和谈判而建立纵横交织的网络,形成资源共享、互惠合作的机制,从而达成共同的治理目标。     

2015年缅北冲突下的果敢难民空间分布特征

通过实地调研、问卷调查、深入访谈等方式,并结合GIS及统计分析法,从宏观和微观上对2015-02-09果敢冲突涌进中国的果敢难民的空间分布特征及原因进行了分析。结果表明：冲突下果敢难民主要受地理距离、政策、社会关系、经济和自然条件等因素影响,难民集中分布在果敢与中国边境交界的中国一侧。从宏观地域格局上看,难民分布的总体特征是沿边境线呈条带状的空间分布,且呈现出向中国境内纵深递减的趋势;从微观上看,主要呈现出集聚型、分散型、集聚-分散型分布的特征。