On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

Unstructured,anisotropic mesh generation for the Northwestern European continental shelf,the continental slope and the neighbouring ocean

A new mesh refinement strategy for generating high quality unstructured meshes of the Northwestern European continental shelf, the continental slope and the neighbouring ocean is presented. Our objective is to demonstrate the ability of anisotropic unstructured meshes to adequately address the challenge of simulating the hydrodynamics occurring in these three regions within a unique mesh. The refinement criteria blend several hydrodynamic considerations as the tidal wave propagation on the continental shelf and the hydrostatic consistency condition in steep areas. Several meshes illustrate both the validity and the efficiency of the refinement strategy. The selection of the refinement parameters is discussed. Finally, an attempt is made to take into account tidal ellipses, providing another cause for anisotropy in the mesh.     

1998年地面加热场的基本特征及其与南海夏季风爆发的可能联系

文中对 1 998年 1月 1日到 8月 31日共 2 4 3d的南海季风试验再分析资料的地面感热场和潜热场进行 EOF分析 ,由感热的第一特征向量场发现 ,中南半岛地区、青藏高原的东北部和印度半岛的大部分是感热通量大值区 ,而海洋上是小值区 ,海陆热力差异十分明显 ,这种海陆感热对比是促使季风爆发的大背景。由感热的时间经度演变图可以看出 ,中南半岛所在经度范围内南北连续的感热分布对南海季风的早爆发具有重要作用。由温度平流项的分布可发现 ,中南半岛的加热作用明显早于青藏高原地区 ,使得中南半岛对南海季风的早期爆发有重要作用 ,而青藏高原对于南海季风的维持具有重要意义。由于印度半岛与中南半岛的海陆分布的差异 ,使得两个地区的温度平流项也有所不同     

社会信息化、经济全球化与世界地理研究的全息景观化—以韩国地理的全息景观研究为例

知识经济与传统的农业经济和工业经济显著不同，由它推动着的社会信息化及经济全球化所带来的地理发展效应，无论是在发展因素的加入上，还是在地域的建造上都愈来愈向着全息化的方向发展。与之相应，世界地理的研究范式，也应该向着更为开放、更为兼容化的方向改进。为此笔者提出全息景观论，并以韩国为例，以展示这种理论的科学解释价值。     

Planning issues in the territorial integration of the Korean peninsula

The historic summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in June 2000 provided a new opportunity for inter-Korean dialogue. Despite many uncertainties regarding the form and substance of inter-Korean economic cooperation, Korean people believe that inter-Korean economic cooperation will expand and eventually lead to economic and territorial integration of the two Koreas. This essay discusses the progress and issues of inter-Korean economic cooperation including infrastructure development. In particular, the essay examines long-term planning issues surrounding the territorial integration of the Korean peninsula and their implications for balanced development. With the German case of economic integration as a point of reference, the essay points out a few strategic problems involved in inter-Korean economic cooperation and suggests an alternative strategy to achieve balanced development.     

高密度电法在湘西北岩溶石山区找水中的应用

湘西北岩溶石山区地质构造复杂，岩溶发育且具分布不均匀性，找水难度大，为提高含水构造的异常分辨力，各种物探方法的优化组合中，以高密度电法在确定最佳井位方面发挥了重要作用，它采集的数据量大，对异常特征反映灵敏度高，在湘西北不同的岩溶水文系统中找水，取得了成功的范例。     

穿越雷州半岛时地形对热带气旋特性的影响

通过对1949～1993年共计29个穿越雷州半岛台风及热带风暴特性变化进行的分析，得出:台风及热带风暴强度（Vmax）一般在登陆前6小时开始明显减弱；台风过岛后强度平均下降24%，热带风暴强度平均下降33%。热带风暴8级大风圈范围的缩小亦较台风为大；半岛对台风和热带风暴移向的影响，台风受影响较早；不论对台风或热带风暴，穿岛前、后均未出现路径明显南折现象。     

南极菲尔德斯半岛湖泊沉积物的稀土地球化学

本文研究了燕鸥湖、西湖和基太湖湖泊沉积物的稀土地球化学。这些湖泊沉积物的稀土分布模式与菲尔德斯半岛第三纪火山岩非常相似，它们的物质来源是菲尔德斯半岛岛弧火山岩。湖泊沉积相与冰碛层稀土模式的差异，反映了它们经历的化学风化程度不同、粘土含量不同。Ｃｅ异常意味着每个湖泊沉积旋回结束的阶段气候是比较干燥的。湖泊沉积物的稀土含量和分布模式变化小，也意味着在中晚更新世时气候是比较干燥的。     

The Coastal Zone Loess of the Liaodong Peninsula, Liaoning Province

This Paper discusses the origin of the Coastal Zone Loess on the Liaodong Peninsula, Liaoning Province.The loess is composed mainly of proximal materials transported by low-altitude air flow and less commonly ofinland distal materials carried by high-altitude air flow. The main provenance is the Liaodong Bay. When thesea level declined during glacial period, the bottoms of the Liaodong Bay and Bohai Sea emerged, wheredesertization occurred. As a result, submarine sediments were transported by strong northwesterly winds to theeastern coastal zone of the peninsula and deposited there. These materials mixed with the windblown dust car-ried by atmospheric circulation from the interior of the continent, forming the loess.     

菲尔德斯半岛东南附近海域的两种仔鱼

198 7年 1 1月至 1 988年 4月在菲尔德斯半岛东南附近海域采集到的仔鱼体长为 1 3 .1 -1 5 mm,它们都处于早期发育阶段。经鉴定隶属一科 (南极鳕鱼科 Nototheniidae) ,一属 (Notothe-nia)两种 :(N.larseni Lonnb,N.gibberifrons Lonnb)。 N.larseni占 88 ,N.gibberifrons占1 2 %。本文对仔鱼形态作了详细的描述。