CMIP5西北太平洋气候变率的模拟评估

利用观测海温资料和CMIP5模式模拟结果分析西北太平洋(120°E~120°W,20~60°N)海表温度的气候态和年代际变化特征。结果表明,所选22个模式可以较好地模拟出西北太平洋海表温度的气候特征及其年际、年代际变化特征;模式模拟的海表温度总体标准偏差在黑潮延伸体区域最大;绝大多数模式能模拟出海表温度的第一EOF模态;西北太平洋海表温度具有较明显的年代际振荡现象,13/22的模式模拟的海表温度存在明显的年代际振荡,同时海表温度气候态的模拟偏差对其周期振荡模拟的影响较大,尤其在黑潮延伸体区域。     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

Quantitative assessment of dissolved radiotracers in the English Channel: Sources, average impact of la Hague reprocessing plant and conservative behaviour (1983, 1986, 1988, 1994)

Knowledge of long-term movements of water-masses in the English Channel has been substantially improved using hydrodynamic modelling coupled with radio-tracers studies; nevertheless, the precision of results so obtained is still largely dependent on measurement precision. New tools are now available to make more accurate determinations of radio-tracer distribution: (1) Repositioning of station locations at the same tide reference-time, giving a homogeneous spatial data set, coupled with the possibility of interpolating and quantifying the amounts of dissolved radioactivity flowing through the English Channel; (2) the first measurements of tritium (³H) in seawater on a large scale in the English Channel demonstrate that this fully conservative radionuclide is a clearly identifiable marker of industrial releases; (3) recent campaigns carried out during the FLUXMANCHE II CCE (1994) programme show the general distribution of dissolved radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs, ¹³⁴Cs, ⁶⁰Co, ¹²⁵Sb, ¹⁰⁶Ru and ³H in the English Channel and the Irish Sea; and (4) the re-utilisation of data from previous campaigns (1983, 1986, 1988) provides indications, at any given location in the English Channel, about the average dilution and distribution of releases derived from the La Hague reprocessing plant. Excesses and losses of radionuclides are now quantified with respect to known source terms; estimates of losses are provided for non-conservative radionuclides, while an excess of ¹³⁷Cs was observed in the English Channel during the period 1983–1994. This excess, which has the same order of magnitude as the quantities released from La Hague plant in the English Channel, could be explained by about 1% of the Sellafield reprocessing plant releases entering the Channel. These results confirm and give a more detailed picture of the previously known distribution of water masses in the English Channel. They lead to clear information about transit times and dilution at this scale, and provide directly comparable data for the validation of hydrodynamic models.     

闽西北地区混合花岗岩类型划分及其与金成矿关系

根据闽西北混合花岗岩产出的大地构造位置、成岩物质来源及其与周围地质体的关系等研究,认为闽西北地区混合花岗岩总体上可分为区域型混合花岗岩和边缘型混合花岗岩2种类型。通过2类混合花岗岩的空间展布和特征对比,并对其形成机理及其与金成矿关系进行了初步探讨。     

广东省1960～2007年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势分析

降雨侵蚀力反映由降雨引起的土壤侵蚀的潜在能力.本文利用广东省25个站点48年(1960～2007)的日雨量资料计算了各站的降雨侵蚀力,并用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验和克里格空间插值法分析了降雨侵蚀力的时空变化规律.结果表明:广东省降雨侵蚀力的空间分布呈沿海向内陆逐渐递减的趋势.全省大部分地区的年降雨侵蚀力呈现不明显上升趋势,且存在较明显的年代际和年际变化.降雨侵蚀力的年内分布特征和降雨量分布类似,呈"双峰型",主要集中在4～9月的雨季.对于季节序列,冬季、春季和夏季大部分地区的降雨侵蚀力有不同程度的上升,秋季全省几乎所有地区呈下降趋势.汛期的降雨侵蚀力变化特征与年降雨侵蚀力相似.     

粤西沿海“4.20”特大暴雨特征分析

根据气象常规观测资料、湛江新一代天气雷达资料、CFL-08风廓线雷达资料及卫星云图,分析2012年4月20日粤西沿海特大暴雨的天气环流形势、能量场、对流不稳定度、水汽输送和辐合辐散等环境特征及物理量场特征。结果表明:这次暴雨过程粤西地区共经历两次强降水过程,分别是受飑线系统、以及高空槽和低空切变影响;西南低空急流的出现有利于粤西暴雨的形成、维持和发展;暴雨过程粤西上空垂直累积液水含量达25~30g/m2;暴雨期间风向随高度明显逆转,有冷平流输送;约2.0 km高度以下低空急流的下传和增强与暴雨的产生有密切关系;短时间内多普勒天气雷达的速度回波低层辐合区域远远大于辐散区域是可能产生强降水的标志。     

中国西北地区城市网络体系分析——基于民营企业布局

从民营企业视角对中国西北地区的城市网络体系进行实证分析,透视民营企业对其城市网络形成的作用。利用民营企业的分布数据,借鉴城市网络分析方法,从服务值、连通性、网络性3个方面对西北地区的城市网络体系进行了分析。基于民营企业视角,西北地区的城市构成了以西安和乌鲁木齐为主副双核、省会城市为核心节点、其他城市可作为其辐射区域的网络系统,且基于民营企业的城市网络体系尚处于初级发展阶段。     

2000年以来广东省经济极化时空演变

选择崔-王指数、变异系数和空间自相关等3种方法,以地级市为基本评价单元,对2000年以来广东省的经济极化的时空演变进行了分析。研究表明：（1）广东省经济极化程度呈上升趋势;（2）2000以来,广东省极化现象明显,但是经济总量的极化现象大于人均经济总量;（3）广东省人均GDP和GDP的Moran＇s I均为正值且呈现增大趋势,经济空间集聚程度呈增大趋势,但是人均GDP的空间集聚程度大于GDP;（4）从局部空间自相关关系来看,广东省经济极化格局2000年以来处于稳定状态。     

基于潜力模型的广东城市可达性度量及经济联系分析

以城市中心职能强度指数分析为基础,应用和改进潜力模型对广东省各地级市的可达性进行综合测算和空间差异分析。结果表明,广东城市可达性及由此反映出来的经济联系的空间格局呈现同心圈层结构,并以佛山市禅城区和顺德区为中心向外辐射。广东珠三角城市群表现出最优的可达性和经济联系强度,而北部和东、西两翼城市在交通网络结构缺乏横向关联、远离经济中心的地理位置和过于依赖珠三角城市群的带动作用等因素的综合影响下,可达性程度和经济联系最差。通过城市可达性和经济联系强度的空间分异规律分析,揭示出广东区域空间结构和交通网络结构存在的问题,诠释城市经济水平、发展模式和地理区位对可达性空间分异的作用,从而为广东省城镇网络体系发育、区域经济协调及珠三角产业转移规划优化提供科学支撑。     

一种基于DCT变换的数字水印算法在“天地图·广东”中的应用

地理信息公共服务通过云平台进行部署和发布,可以使得其应用于政府部门和社会的空间数据服务更加高效和稳定。然而,把对应的地图信息挂载在云平台供应商处同时也加大了防止电子地图被盗用的难度。本文针对"天地图?广东"的电子地图瓦片,提出了一种具有高鲁棒性、基于离散余弦变换(DCT)的数字水印算法,在寄存云端和公开发布的电子地图中隐藏生产单位版权的数字水印图片,藉此来跟踪、抵制"天地图"图片数据的非法流通,非法复制,有效地保护数据生产单位的合法权益。