Estimated population mixing by country and risk cohort for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Western Europe

 This paper applies a compartmental epidemic model to estimating the mixing relations that support the transfer of HIV infection between risk populations within the countries of Western Europe. To this end, a space-time epidemic model with compartments representing countries with populations specified to be at high (gay men and intravenous drug injectors ever with AIDS) and low (the remainder who are sexually active) risk is described. This model also allows for contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals by both local and international travel. This system is calibrated to recorded AIDS incidence and the best-fit solution provides estimates of variations in the rates of mixing between the compartments together with a reconstruction of the transmission pathway. This solution indicates that, for all the countries, AIDS incidence among those at low risk is expected to remain extremely small relative to their total number. A sensitivity analysis of the low risk partner acquisition rate, however, suggests this endemic state might be fragile within Europe during this century. The discussion examines the relevance of these mixing relationships for the maintenance of disease control. Received: 4 May 2000 / Accepted: 9 July 2000     

Late Pleistocene-Holocene paleolimnology of three north-western Russian lakes

The vegetation history and development of three different types of lakes, lakes Valday, Kubenskoye and Vishnevskoye (northwest of the East European Plain) were reconstructed using paleolimnological techniques. Watershed vegetation demonstrates a close connection with climate fluctuations: gradual expansion of the southern broad-leaved trees to the North during the Holocene with the maximum extent during the climate optimum (8000–5000 BP); and their subsequent retreat afterwards; followed by the extension of spruce during the cold and dry Subboreal time; and dominance of pine-spruce-birch forests in the Subatlantic time. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene climate changes resulted in lake-level fluctuations and other ecosystem changes. Valday Lake was formed ca. 12,500 BP as an oligotrophic, deep water basin. The lake level decreased during the dry Boreal, then increased again during the humid Atlantic period. The large shallow Kubenskoye Lake was formerly a part of an ice margin lake, which was then separated (ca. 13,000 BP) and developed into the Sukhona Basin with an outflow to the northwest. During the Atlantic, the outflow direction changed to the east. As a result, the ancient Sukhona Lake disappeared and Kubenskoye Lake formed in its modern size and shape. Vishnevskoye Lake, on the Karelian Isthmus, was formed at the beginning of the Preboreal after the disappearance of the Baltic Ice Lake. It was flooded by waters of the Boreal Ancylus transgression of the Baltic Basin and had become a small eutrophic lake by the time.     

中国西北地区蒸发散量计算的遥感研究

自然陆面区域蒸发散的教育处是一个复杂的问题，在利用遥感资料求取地表特征参数的基础上，首先建立了2种极端条件下（裸露地表和全植被覆盖）的裸土蒸发和全植被覆盖蒸散计算模型，然后结合植被覆盖度给出非均匀陆面条件下的区域蒸发散计算方法，实测资料验算表明该模型具有较高的计算精度，最后利用该模型对我国西北5省区的蒸发散量进行了计算，并对该研究区蒸发散的特点进行了分析。     

西北地区城市规模分形结构的研究

本文利用分形理论和相空间概念，从理论的角度演绎推导出城市规模分形结构的一般模式，并以此为基础，结合西北地区自然，经济，社会状况，对五省萄城市规模分形结构进行初步分析，为深入研究其城市体系，制定城市，区域发展战略提供一定的参考。     

Late Cretaceous lithoevents in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, Czechoslovakia

Facies evolution and vertical changes within the Late Cretaceous sequence of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin reveal fluctuations of intra- and extrabasinal circumstances. Evidence of periodic oscillations is recognized and two categories of aperiodic event indications are distinguished according to their significance and lateral persistence. Several lithoevents may be related to eustatic changes, while others indicate the independent evolution of the basin, influenced by epeirogenetic movements of segments of the Bohemian Massif.     

Late Maastrichtian cephalopods,dinoflagellate cysts and foraminifera from the Cretaceous–Paleogene succession at Lechówka,southeast Poland: Stratigraphic and environmental implications

The Lechówka section comprises the most complete Cretaceous–Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary succession in Poland and is among 29 sites worldwide with the youngest ammonite record. Here, cephalopods (ammonites and nautilids), organic-walled dinoflagellates (dinocysts) and foraminifera from the uppermost Maastrichtian interval are studied. In terms of ammonite biostratigraphy, the upper Maastrichtian Hoploscaphites constrictus crassus Zone is documented up to a level 120 cm below the K-Pg boundary. There is no direct, ammonite-based evidence of the highest Maastrichtian H. constrictus johnjagti Zone. However, the predominance of the dinocyst marker taxon Palynodinium grallator suggests the presence of the equivalent of the uppermost Maastrichtian Thalassiphora pelagica Subzone, which is correlatable with the H. c. johnjagti ammonite Zone. The planktonic foraminiferal assemblage is coeval with that from the H. c. johnjagti Zone as well. These data indicate that the top of the Maastrichtian at Lechówka is complete within the limits of biostratigraphic resolution, albeit slightly condensed. The dinocyst and foraminiferal assemblages are dominated by taxa that are characteristic of high-energy, marginal marine environments. A reduction in test size among the calcareous epifaunal benthic foraminifera is observed at a level 50 cm below the K-Pg boundary, which is possibly related to environmental stress associated with Deccan volcanism.     

Review of the Late Cretaceous-early Paleogene crocodylomorphs of Europe: Extinction patterns across the K-PG boundary

Although the European dinosaur succession during the latest Cretaceous and its relationship with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction has been the focus of recent work, other continental vertebrates, such as crocodylomorphs, have received less attention. The European continental record of crocodylomorphs in general, and of eusuchians in particular, is relatively dense through the Maastrichtian until the K-Pg boundary. Traditionally it has been argued that continental crocodylomorphs were minimally impacted by the K-Pg extinction, but they were substantially affected in Europe with the disappearance of endemic eusuchians such as Hylaeochampsidae, Allodaposuchus and their close relatives, and non-eusuchians such as Doratodon or Theriosuchus. Despite extensive sampling in Danian continental deposits, only scarce fragmentary crocodylomorph remains have been cited. It is not until the late Paleocene and Eocene that a recovery in continental crocodylomorphs is observed. The presence of taxa such as planocraniids, the alligatoroids Diplocynodon and Hassiacosuchus, and stem crocodyloids during this period provide the first reliable continental records of Crocodylia in Europe and is best explained by post-extinction immigration from Asia or North America. By contrast, marine forms such as Thoracosaurus are found on both sides of the K-Pg boundary in Europe. The adaptation of these marine animals to different environments, from shallow seas to more transitional or fluvial environments, could be the key to their success and survival across the K-Pg boundary, as seen in other marine crocodylomorph clades such as Dyrosauridae.     

固结钻井液对湘西北页岩气储层的护壁机理研究

文中提出了一种液态离子固结剂,该处理剂能够有效提高页岩气井井壁的力学强度。通过开展室内实验以及进行相关分析,初步了解了添加液态离子固结剂的钻井液的基本性能,并探究了该体系钻井液对炭质页岩膨胀的抑制性以及对炭质页岩力学强度的影响。发现钻井液滤失量随液态离子固结剂含量的增加先减小后增大;在各配方钻井液中的压制岩心膨胀率明显低于在清水中的,但液态离子固结剂含量增加使得钻井液中的压制岩心膨胀率越来越高;各钻井液处理的岩粉所制成的剪切试样抗剪强度高于经清水处理的,随着液态离子固结剂含量的增加,试样抗剪强度总体上先升高再下降,且试样单轴抗压强度增大。实验结果表明,在适宜的含量范围内,液态离子固结剂有助于增强钻井液维护井壁稳定的能力。     

Modeling the Invasion of Holly (Ilex aquifolium): Spatial Relationships and Spread Trajectories

In this study, we investigated the environmental factors associated with the establishment of invasive English holly (Ilex aquifolium) and the spatiotemporal trajectories of its potential spread. We collected georeferenced presence and absence and demographic data of holly between 2011 and 2014 in Saint Edward State Park, Washington. We analyzed them through a spatially explicit framework that combines multiple logistic regression, cellular automata, and bivariate quadratic modeling. Results showed that the presence of holly is influenced by the proximity to evergreen coniferous vegetation and forest edge, distance to streams, forest structure, and slope direction. Our study confirmed that local environmental conditions, species characteristics, and vegetative and dispersal mechanisms play a significant role in determining the rate and success of holly establishment across the different phases of invasion. Invasive species management plans should consider both species characteristics and their habitat and the interactions among them when planning long-term strategies for control and eradication.     

Diatom-inferred lake level from near-shore cores in a drainage lake from the Experimental Lakes Area,northwestern Ontario,Canada

We inferred late Holocene lake-level changes from a suite of near-shore gravity cores collected in Lake 239 (Rawson Lake), a headwater lake in the Experimental Lakes Area, northwestern Ontario. Results were reproduced across all cores. A gravity core from the deep central basin was very similar to the near-shore cores with respect to trends in the percent abundance of the dominant diatom taxon, Cylcotella stelligera. The central basin, however, does not provide a sensitive site for reconstruction of lake-level changes because of the insensitivity of the diatom model at very high percentages of C. stelligera and other planktonic taxa. Quantitative estimates of lake level are based on a diatom-inferred depth model that was developed from surficial sediments collected along several depth transects in Lake 239. The lake-level reconstructions during the past ~3,000 years indicate that lake depth varied on average by ±2 m from present-day conditions, with maximum rises of ~3–4 m and maximum declines of ~3.5–5 m. The diatom-inferred depth record indicates several periods of persistent low levels during the nineteenth century, from ~900 to 1100 AD, and for extended periods prior to ~1,500 years ago. Periods of inferred high lake levels occurred from ~500 to 900 AD and ~1100 to 1650 AD. Our findings suggest that near-shore sediments from small drainage lakes in humid climates can be used to assess long-term fluctuations in lake level and water availability.