滇西北地区M≥5.0地震地震学短期预报指标及其预报效能研究

在滇西北地区(25°~28°N,99°~101.5°E)用不同的统计窗长和滑动步长,对当前常用的地震学参数进行分析研究,最终确定了6个预报指标:频度N、缺震、能量E、断层总面积ΣE、空间集中度C值、地震活动度S值。这6项指标对滇西北地区及周边区域1990年发生的M≥5.0地震有较好的短期映震能力,但丽江7级地震前,6个指标只有缺震出现了明显异常,达到预报指标,其余5个指标都无异常显示。这种结果一方面说明6项指标对6级左右地震有较好的对应关系,但对6.7级以上地震没有控制能力;另一方面也说明,丽江7.0级地震最显著的特征是短期阶段孕震区中小地震活动异常平静。因此,仅仅依靠地震学指标实现短临预报是不够的,还应结合其它方法和手段。     

Curie-point depth from spectral analysis of magnetic data in central-southern Europe

The basal depth of the outer layer with internal magnetic sources was calculated from magnetic data available within a roughly 500 km wide and 1200 km long area, running from central Germany to southern Italy. The dataset, deriving from different aeromagnetic surveys, is reduced to the reference altitude of 3000 m a.s.l. and a reference year of 1980.0. The adopted method, which transforms the spatial data into the frequency domain, provides a relationship between the two-dimensional spectrum of the magnetic anomalies and the top and centroid depths of the magnetic sources. The magnetic layer bottom depth (MLBD) thus obtained is 29-33 km deep in the stable areas (central Europe Variscan units, Corsica-Sardinia Variscan block) and corresponds to the Moho, having an average temperature of 560 °C. From the Alps to the Apennines, MLBD ranges between 22 and 28 km and is clearly shallower than the Moho. In these units, the wide variation of MLBD appears to be compatible with the presence of shallow magnetised bodies, consisting of lower crustal rocks (Ivrea-Verbano zone), ophiolitic units (Penninic zone and Voltri Massif) and intrasedimentary basic volcanic bodies (Po Basin). An average value of 25 km can be attributed to MLBD, which corresponds to a temperature of 550 °C. In the peri-Tyrrhenian zone and the Ligurian Sea, MLBD is below the Moho, which ranges from 17 to 20 km depth, and it has a temperature matching approximately to the Curie temperature of magnetite (580 °C).     

Biological response to coastal upwelling and dust deposition in the area off Northwest Africa

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll-a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load.     

Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in Northwest China: The roles of changing wind speed and surface air temperature

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is an important element in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions, and analysis of changes in ET₀ is of great significance for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. As ET₀ is an integrated effect of climate variables, increases in air temperature should lead to increases in ET₀. However, this effect could be offset by decreases in vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and solar radiation which lead to the decrease in ET₀. In this study, trends in the Penman–Monteith ET₀ at 80 meteorological stations during 1960–2010 in the driest region of China (Northwest China) were examined. The results show that there was a change point for ET₀ series around the year 1993 based on the Pettitt's test. For the region average, ET₀ decreased from 1960 to 1993 by ?2.34 mm yr^?2, while ET₀ began to increase since 1994 by 4.80 mm yr^?2. A differential equation method based on the Food and Agriculture Organization Penman–Monteith formula was used to attribute the change in ET₀. The attribution results show that the significant decrease in wind speed dominated the change in ET₀, which offset the effect of increasing air temperature and led to the decrease in ET₀ from 1960 to 1993. However, wind speed began to increase, and the amplitude of increase in air temperature also rose significantly since the mid‐1990s. Increases in air temperature and wind speed together reversed the trend in ET₀ and led to the increase in ET₀ since 1994. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1994年全球地震活动综述

１９９４年全球地震活动属于高水平，有４次大深震和４次浅源大地震。全球全年共发生６级以上地震１３４次，超过１９９３年。全球地震活动中心仍在太平洋西北边缘地震带。１０月４日的千岛群岛地震是最大的浅源地震；６月９日的玻利维亚地震是最大的深源地震。１９９４年全球地震活动开始转折，揭开强烈活动期的序幕。各大地震带的Ａ（ｂ）值几乎按同一比例上升，显示全球地震整体性增强。全球地震Ａ（ｂ）值在６月和１０月有两次高     

Shortage in the midst of plenty: Labour strategies in four Central and Eastern European cities

Labour shortage was an integral feature of the communist system of economic management and one that seemed most unlikely to persist in the face of systemic transformation. A casual examination of the unemployment rates that have emerged throughout most of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during the course of the past decade might suggest that this early assumption was correct. However, within the region the aggregate rate of joblessness, as well as the behaviour of national output, mask the fact that certain, major urban centres appear to have weathered well the storms caused by exposure to western markets and stringent fiscal and monetary policies. In these centres transformation has meant, to a greater or lesser degree, industrial modernisation and this begs the question of whether the human capital portfolios of the inherited labour force match up to the requirements of the new environment. This paper examines the meaning of the concept of labour shortage and presents the findings from a survey of employers in four leading cities of three major CEE economies designed to elicit if, and how, manpower requirements are being met in the present climate. The results indicate that, somewhat paradoxically, labour shortage persists in the more flexible markets of the post-communist era and that firms do not expect the situation to change radically in the near future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impacts of systematic precipitation bias on simulations of water and energy balances in Northwest America

At high latitudes and in mountainous areas, evaluation and validation of water and energy flux simu-lations are greatly affected by systematic precipitation errors. These errors mainly come from topographic effects and undercatch of precipitation gauges. In this study, the Land Dynamics （LAD） land surface model is used to investigate impacts of systematic precipitation bias from topography and wind-blowing on water and energy flux simulation in Northwest America. The results show that topographic and wind adjustment reduced bias of streamflow simulations when compared with observed streamflow at 14 basins. These systematic biases resulted in a -50%-100% bias for runoff simulations, a -20%-20% bias for evapotranspiration, and a -40%-40% bias for sensible heat flux, subject to different locations and adjustments, when compared with the control run. Uncertain gauge adjustment leads to a 25% uncertainty for precipitation, a 20% 100% uncertainty for runoff simulation, a less-than-10% uncertainty for evapotranspiration, and a less-than-20% uncertainty for sensible heat flux.     

An exploration of potential raw materials for prehistoric pottery production in the Tao River Valley,Gansu Province,China

Northwest China is known for its Majiayao-style Neolithic painted pottery which has received much praise for its high level of craftsmanship, yet its chain of production, in particular the step of raw material selection, is still poorly understood. To fill this lacuna, the present study explores the raw materials used in producing these wares from a geological and technological perspective. At its core stands the first geoarchaeological survey conducted around the eponymous site of Majiayao which collected 47 samples of raw materials suitable for ceramic production including clay, loess and rocks, which were all analysed macroscopically. A selection was analysed using thin-section petrography, and a subset of the clay and loess samples were subjected to firing experiments. Additionally, three clay samples were analysed by scanning electron microscope with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer to understand their composition and behaviour in ceramic production. These were then compared to archaeological ceramics, thus providing insights into raw-material availability and selection that will be of importance not only for research on Majiayao-style pottery but also for later-period ceramics produced in the area. This research shows how an archaeologically informed geological survey can contribute insights into human–environment interaction in early pottery production, especially the interplay between raw-material availability, technological know-how and potters' choices.     

我国西北地区多年降水的氢氧同位素分布特征研究

降水是干旱区水文循环研究不可缺少的水文要素,为了揭示我国西北地区大气降水的氢氧同位素时空分布特征,合理开展不同尺度水文循环研究和建立对比标准,系统搜集分析了乌鲁木齐、银川、张掖、兰州、平凉、西安和拉萨七个地区多年大气降水的氢氧同位素数据资料。分析结果表明:乌鲁木齐、银川、张掖和兰州四个地区的δ18O值夏半年明显高于冬半年,从全年尺度上来看只是受到了温度效应的影响;而位于关中盆地的西安地区则由于复杂的水汽来源,冬半年表现出受温度效应的控制,夏半年转为雨量效应控制为主。平凉地区δ18O与其它海拔相近地区(如兰州)相比5~9月份均偏负,这与平凉地区较弱的城市热岛效应有关。西北地区大气降水δD和δ18O的变化范围均在全球大气降水的变化范围之内,除平凉和拉萨外,其它几个地区大气降水线方程的斜率和截距均小于全球大气降水线,说明这些地区的降水是在干旱环境下经历较强程度的蒸发条件下进行的,且在降水过程中还可能受到了局地二次蒸发凝结等水汽循环的影响。而该区域大气降水的氘盈余(d值)表现出冬半年高、夏半年低的特点,表明冬半年和夏半年水汽来源不同或者水源地的蒸发条件不同。