The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

Motive force of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau moving to east

A calculation formula on spherical pattern of Qinghai-Tibet plateau moving model is established. Tibet massif moves norward by east in speed of 28 mm/a, Ganshu-Qinghai massif moves to northeast in speed of 15 mm/a, Qomolangma Feng moves northward by a few east in speed of 35 ～42 mm/a. The low latitude perimeter is longer than the nigh latitude perimeter. When the Tibet massif moves northward, its latitude perimeter must be contracted and the Tibet massif must move eastward by Coriolis. Coriolis force is inertial in earth rotation. It makes the fall body turning to east and the rising block turning westward. In the Northern Hemisphere, it makes the northward body turning to east and the southward block turning to west.This is the reason why the tectonic zones of western Pacific are different from those of eastern Pacific.     

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

Opening of the Fram Strait gateway: A review of plate tectonic constraints

We have revised the regional crustal structure, oceanic age distribution, and conjugate margin segmentation in and around the Lena Trough, the oceanic part of the Fram Strait between the Norwegian–Greenland Sea and the Eurasia Basin (Arctic Ocean). The Lena Trough started to open after Eurasia–Greenland relative plate motions changed from right-lateral shear to oblique divergence at Chron 13 times (33.3 Ma; earliest Oligocene). A new Bouguer gravity map, supported by existing seismic data and aeromagnetic profiles, has been applied to interpret the continent–ocean transition and the influence of Eocene shear structures on the timing of breakup and initial seafloor spreading. Assuming that the onset of deep-water exchange depended on the formation of a narrow, oceanic corridor, the gateway formed during early Miocene times (20–15 Ma). However, if the initial Lena Trough was blocked by terrigenous sediments or was insufficiently subsided to allow for deep-water circulation, the gateway probably formed with the first well developed magnetic seafloor spreading anomaly around Chron 5 times (9.8 Ma; Late Miocene). Paleoceanographic changes at ODP Site 909 (northern Hovgård Ridge) are consistent with both hypotheses of gateway formation. We cannot rule out that a minor gateway formed across stretched continental crust prior to the onset of seafloor spreading in the Lena Trough. The gravity, seismic and magnetic observations question the prevailing hypotheses on the Yermak Plateau and the Morris Jesup Rise as Eocene oceanic plateaus and the Hovgård Ridge as a microcontinent.     

Application of MODFLOW and geographic information system to groundwater flow simulation in North China Plain, China

MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology. Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 10⁶ m³ and the total discharge was 56,530 × 10⁶ m³ the budget deficit was −7,156 × 10⁶ m³. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online.     

Anthropogenic affects on lake sedimentation process: a case study from Lake Sapanca, NW Turkey

Lake Sapanca in NW Turkey is a fault originated freshwater basin fed by seasonally variable flows of 15 streams. Considerations of lake–river interaction, supported by statistical measures of 47 bottom samples, suggest that sediment transport and deposition within the lake is controlled by two types of human constructed structures in addition to natural factors: (1) the dykes constructed in the front of streams, which feed the lake by strong flows, to prevent the filling of lakebed by coarse-grained sediments; (2) the constructed regulator on the outflowing Çarksuyu stream results in a higher sedimentation rate of clay-sized material on the NE corner of the lake, which is extraordinary in the shelf environment.     

华北克拉通北缘隆化地区S型花岗岩的独居石年龄图谱

位于华北克拉通北缘中段的隆化S型花岗岩由石榴石黑云母花岗岩、石榴石花岗岩以及片麻理化的黑云母花岗岩组成。其主体岩性石榴石黑云母花岗岩SiO_2和Al_2O_3含量分别为64.09%～69.6%以及14.6%～16.13%,K_2O/Na_2O>1.0,A/CNK>1,0,Mg~#在20.76～34.89之间变化,具有明显的Nb、Ta、P、Ti和Sr亏损以及Rb、K和Th富集。石榴石黑云母花岗岩(样品JB6031-1)采用独居石电子探针U-Th-Pb化学法进行测年,获得了2553±120Ma、2180±42Ma和1854±24Ma三个年龄峰值。一颗独居石内部成分分带上6个分析点定年结果构成2553±120Ma的峰值年龄,这一年龄与我们最新获得的2506±7Ma和2541±8Ma(继承锆石年龄)LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素年龄相似,我们将这一独居石年龄解释为继承独居石的年龄,表明在赤城-隆化断裂以北存在太古宙陆块,并且在后期构造-热事件中发生部分熔融形成S型花岗岩。该独居石颗粒幔部成分分带上10个分析点的测年结果揭示的峰值年龄为2181±42Ma,该年龄也是出现频率最高的年龄值,我们建议2181±42Ma为S型花岗岩的结晶年龄,反映了S型花岗岩的侵位时代。独居石颗粒外部成分分带上8个分析点的测年结果构成1854±24Ma的峰值年龄,该年龄与华北克拉通中部带的变质年龄接近,我们将其解释为S型花岗岩的变质年龄,表明华北克拉通北缘的构造演化与中部带的构造演化密切相关。     

青藏高原西部赛利普中新世火山岩源区:地球化学及Sr-Nd同位素制约

青藏高原拉萨地块西部赛利普地区新生代火山岩依据主量元素可划分为超钾质、钾质和钙碱性系列,主要的岩石类型为粗面安山岩、粗面岩,一个超钾质岩石的40Ar-39Ar年龄为17.58Ma,指示出火山活动为中新世.超钾质、钾质和钙碱性火山岩都显示出富集LREE及LILE(Th、U)、亏损HFSE(Nb、Ta、Ti)的特征.超钾质火山岩具有较高的K2O(6.31%～8.55%)、MgO(6.75%～8.96%)、Cr(270.7×10-6～460.4×10-6)、Ni(142.3×10-6～233.9×10-6)含量,较高的(87Sr/86Sr)i(0.71883～0.72732)和较低的εNd(-14.78～-15.37),指示可能起源于一个前期亏损并经后期俯冲作用改造的富钾的方辉橄榄岩富集地幔源区.钾质火山岩具有比超钾质火山岩低的K2O、MgO、Cr、Ni含量以及高的Ba、Sr含量,初始87Sr/86Sr为0.71553～0.71628,初始143Nd/144Nd为0.51197～0.51198,在空间上与超钾质火山岩共生,可能是前者母岩浆的演化产物.钙碱性火山岩具有较高的Sr(881.7×10-6～1309.2×10-6)、Sr/Y比值(50～108)和较低的Y(12.05×10-6～18.02×10-6),明显亏损重稀土Yb(0.93×10-6～1.30×10-6),类似于典型的埃达克质岩成分特征但相对高钾,并具有相对低的(87Sr/86Sr);(0.70928～0.71374)以及高的εNd(-7.90～-10.91),指示起源于富钾增厚下地壳物质的部分熔融.区域上拉萨地块超钾质岩、钾质岩与N-S向地堑系在空间上共存、时间上相吻合,由此本文认为拉萨地块中新世钾质.超钾质岩和南北向地堑系的形成可能与中新世早期北向俯冲的印度大陆岩石圈断离有关.     

新疆北部库尔提蛇绿岩中角闪片岩的原岩恢复及其成因

库尔提角闪片岩产于库尔提蛇绿岩南部岩片中,与斜长花岗岩呈互层产出。这套角闪片岩的不相容微量元素组分显示了大洋中脊和岛弧玄武岩的双重特征,主要表现为大离子亲石元素(LILE)富集,高场强元素(HFSE)亏损以及平坦到亏损的轻稀土(LREE)配分模式。原岩恢复的结果表明,该角闪片岩的原岩为亚碱性的拉斑玄武岩类。库尔提角闪片岩亏损的LREE、高ε_(Nd)(t),以及关键元素比值(Th/Nb,La/Yb和Th/Yb)呈正相关都表明,其源区可能以MORB地幔为主,同时还伴有少量弧组分。因此,我们认为其形成于弧后盆地环境,同时推断该区弧后盆地存在一个二阶段的熔融演化模式:第一阶段,大约在晚古生代早期,古亚洲洋向西伯利亚板块发生北向俯冲,在会聚板块边界,弧火山岩被从含水的地幔楔中提取出来,留下一个亏损地幔;第二阶段,随着古亚洲洋板块持续消减,在中-晚泥盆世形成了库尔提弧后盆地,下部的亏损地幔发生了小比例的部分熔融形成了这套角闪片岩的原岩。