初至层析静校正在复杂山地三维地震勘探中的应用

随着地形高差增大、地貌单元多变、近地表模型复杂,目前被广泛应用的初至折射静校正的精度已无法满足精细勘探的要求。初至层析静校正技术,由给定的初始模型进行正演,用射线追踪方法得到初始模型的初至波,利用该初至波和实际拾取的初至波进行比较,计算地表模型的修正量,反复迭代求得准确的地表模型。山西省国阳新能股份有限公司二矿390水平九采扩区地表标高940～1100m,地貌单元复杂,在对该区资料处理时,利用初至层析折射静校正,经9次迭代计算后,真实地刻划出近地表模型。在二种静校正技术对比中,初至折射静校正不但近地表模型精度低于层析折射静校正,而且其叠加剖面精细程度也远低于层析静校正,如在初至折射静校正叠加剖面同相轴上呈现的凹凸形态,在层析静校正叠加剖面并无显示,且后者剖面的信噪比也比前者明显提高。     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

舞阳、襄城盐湖盆地未熟-低熟油成藏模式

舞阳、襄城凹陷下第三生活费为膏、盐岩相盐湖沉积。半咸水-咸水湖相、盐湖相是形成未熟-低熟油的良好环境，沉积旋回中期断坳式沉积形成了主要油源层系，其高丰度未熟烃类推岩体是形成未熟-低熟油藏的物质基础，中-高孔、中-高渗碎屑岩层构成了未熟-低熟油藏的重要储集层，并发育了较好的生储盖组合，这些有利条件为舞阳、襄城凹陷形成未熟-低熟油藏提供了重要保证。指出凹陷陡坡带为背斜、断鼻型油藏分布区，还可能有混合型油藏；中部洼陷带为岩性油藏、裂隙型油藏发育区；斜坡带主要发育断鼻型油藏。     

A non-linear stress-stiffness model for geomaterials at small to intermediate strains

A double exponential fitting model (DEFM) capable of expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of geomaterials has been proposed by Shibuya et al. (1997). The model comprises two material constants; the elastic stiffness at very small strains and the strength, together with other free parameters to determine the complete stress-stiffness relationship. In this paper, the capability of the original function used for DEFM in simulating the tangent stiffness-stress relationship of geomaterials is first discussed. Second, the methods for determining the free model parameters, as well as its conversion to obtain a stress-strain relationship are proposed. The applicability of DEFM to predicting non-linear stress-stiffness relationship is examined in detail in a total of forty-nine fitting cases of compression test data on sedimentary rock, artificial soft rock and soft clay. It is found that the DEFM is effective in expressing the non-linear stress-stiffness relationship of various kinds of geomaterials at small to intermediate strains, say less than 0.5%. The superiority of this model compared to other fitting models currently in use is also demonstrated in some of the fitting cases.     

山岳型旅游区人文建筑环境后效与调控模型

许多山岳型旅游区内或其流域上游，都建有人文建筑，而且在急剧增多，导致自然环境日趋恶化，其中乱建疗养院和旅馆的影响最为严重。通过地监测并全面分析张家界环境演变趋势，发现住宿施对环境的影响，比其他游乐设施更为明显。张家界国家森林公园生态环境的脆弱因子是金鞭溪水质。金鞭溪水质恶化主要表现为蓝藻，绿藻迅速繁殖，感官质量下降。主要原因是磷污染较重，总磷年均值100%超标。本文提出了基于环境脆弱因子的动态阈值调控模型，通过计算得出：在不超出张家界景区最为脆弱的环境因子-金鞭溪水质标准：总磷≤0.02前提下，金鞭溪上游接待区住宿设施生态阈值的动态系列：春季临界床位数为1186，夏季为3057，冬季为545，秋季为333。目前的建筑规模已超过了金鞭溪上游接待区住宿设施生态阈值。     

静力触探中土层界面效应试验研究

根据成层土模型试验结果,对静力触探中土层面效应进行试验研究和机理分析,取得了成层土界面效应的规律性,为利用静力触探划分土层提供了理论和实践依据。     

Lateral tidal mixing in the Antarctic marginal seas

Tidal mixing plays an important role in the modification of dense water masses around the Antarctic continent. In addition to the vertical (diapycnal) mixing in the near-bottom layers, lateral mixing can also be of relevance in some areas. A numerical tide simulation shows that lateral tidal mixing is not uniformly distributed along the shelf break. In particular, strong mixing occurs all along the Ross Sea and Southern Weddell Sea shelf breaks, while other regions (e.g., the western Weddell Sea) are relatively quiet. The latter regions correspond surprisingly well to areas where indications for cross-shelf exchange of dense water masses have been found. The results suggest that lateral tidal mixing may account for the relatively small contribution of Ross Sea dense water masses to Antarctic Bottom Water.     

Stepwise Conditional Transformation for Simulation of Multiple Variables

Most geostatistical studies consider multiple-related variables. These relationships often show complex features such as nonlinearity, heteroscedasticity, and mineralogical or other constraints. These features are not handled by the well-established Gaussian simulation techniques. Earth science variables are rarely Gaussian. Transformation or anamorphosis techniques make each variable univariate Gaussian, but do not enforce bivariate or higher order Gaussianity. The stepwise conditional transformation technique is proposed to transform multiple variables to be univariate Gaussian and multivariate Gaussian with no cross correlation. This makes it remarkably easy to simulate multiple variables with arbitrarily complex relationships: (1) transform the multiple variables, (2) perform independent Gaussian simulation on the transformed variables, and (3) back transform to the original variables. The back transformation enforces reproduction of the original complex features. The methodology and underlying assumptions are explained. Several petroleum and mining examples are used to show features of the transformation and implementation details.