天津潮间带高程现状与滨海新区城市安全

通过6条潮间带水准测量剖面,对天津滨海新区潮间带的高程及坡度进行了测量和计算。结果显示:人工岸线(海堤、海防公路等)与滩面交汇处的高程为+0.22m~+0.73m(1956黄海高程);天津潮间带的平均坡度为1.25‰,海河南侧滩面的平均坡度为1.09‰,较北侧1.33‰小,海河北侧从蛏头沽剖面(1.21‰)到大神堂剖面(1.58‰)滩面坡度呈现变大的趋势;结合潮位观测数据,获得了潮间带的出落宽度,永定新河潮间带最宽,为1730~1810m,大神堂潮间带最窄,为1090~1160m。与20世纪80年代对比,滩面已变陡、变窄。进一步的滩面高度与潮位对比发现,滩面与人工岸线交汇处的高程均低于平均高潮位,揭示了海防设施受到海水直接影响的现状。海防设施真正地成了保护城市的唯一屏障,因此应该进一步加高、加固海防设施,提高防灾等级。     

Facies in a Devonian‐Carboniferous volcanic fore‐arc succession,Campwyn Volcanics,Mackay district,central Queensland∗

The Middle Devonian to Early Carboniferous Campwyn Volcanics of coastal central Queensland form part of the fore‐arc basin and eastern flank of the volcanic arc of the northern New England Fold Belt. They consist of a complex association of pyroclastic, hyaloclastic and resedimented, texturally immature volcaniclastic facies associated with shallow intrusions, lavas and minor limestone, non‐volcanic siliciclastics and ignimbrite. Primary igneous rocks indicate a predominantly mafic‐intermediate parentage. Mafic to intermediate pyroclastic rocks within the unit formed from both subaerial and ?submarine to emergent strombolian and phreatomagmatic eruptions. Quench‐fragmented hyaloclastite breccias are widespread and abundant. Shallow marine conditions for much of the succession are indicated by fossil assemblages and intercalated limestone and epiclastic sandstone and conglomerate facies. Volcanism and associated intrusions were widely dispersed in the Campwyn depositional basin in both space and time. The minor component of silicic volcanic products is thought to have been less proximal and derived from eruptive centres to the west, inboard of the basin.     

Calculated mineral equilibria for eclogites in CaO–Na2O–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O: application to the Pouébo Terrane, Pam Peninsula, New Caledonia

The high- P , medium- T  Pouébo terrane of the Pam Peninsula, northern New Caledonia includes barroisite- and glaucophane-bearing eclogite and variably rehydrated equivalents. The metamorphic evolution of the Pouébo terrane is inferred from calculated P–T  and P–T  – X H2O pseudosections for bulk compositions appropriate to these rocks in the model system CaO–Na₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O. The eclogites experienced a clockwise P–T  path that reached P ≈19  kbar and T  ≈600  °C. The eclogitic mineral assemblages are preserved because reaction consequent upon decompression consumed the rocks' fluid. Extensive reaction occurred only in rocks with fluid influx during decompression of the Pouébo terrane.     

Streamflow response to Pinus plantation harvesting: Canobolas State forest,southeastern Australia

Streamflows were measured in two Pinus radiata plantation catchments and one native eucalypt forest catchment in Canobolas State forest from 1999 to 2007. In 2002/2003, clearfall harvesting of 43·2 and 40·3% of two plantation catchments occurred, respectively. Water yields increased by 54 mm (52%), 71 mm (35%) and 50 mm (19%) in the first three years post‐harvest in treated catchment A and by 103 mm (118%), 157 mm (82%) and 119 mm (48%) in treated catchment B relative to the native forest control catchment. In the fourth post‐harvest water year annual rainfall was only 488 mm, which resulted in negligible run‐off in all catchments, regardless of forest cover. In both plantation catchments, monthly streamflows increased significantly (p = 0·01, p < 0·001) due to a significant increase in baseflows (p < 0·001) after harvesting. Monthly stormflows were not significantly affected by harvesting. Flow duration curve analyses indicated a variable response between the two plantation catchments. Treated catchment A was converted from an ephemeral stream flowing 42% of the time pre‐harvest to a temporary stream flowing 82% of the time post‐harvest. These changes occurred throughout all seasons of the year but were most pronounced during summer and autumn when baseflows were maintained post‐harvest but were not observed under native forest or mature pine plantations. By contrast, flow duration increased in treated catchment B from 12% of the time pre‐harvest to 38% of the time post‐harvest with the greatest changes measured during the winter and spring months when streamflow would normally occur under native forest conditions. These observations have important implications for the development of models of plantation water use to be utilized in water resource planning in Australia. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New Zealand glacier response to climate change of the past 2 decades

Oblique aerial photography of 111 glaciers during the past 2 decades has recorded a reversal of the past century glacier-recession trend. Cirque glaciers show little response to the recent mass balance increase; mountain glaciers show visible advances. Some valley glaciers have advanced, some have thickened in the upper trunk, and the larger ones and those with proglacial lakes continue to recede. The shift to advance is driven by an average lowering of snowlines of 67 m, equivalent to a cooling of 0.47°C if other factors are held constant.     

城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价方法与实践

城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价是合理进行地下空间立体化开发、降低开发地质风险的重要手段,但目前尚缺乏系统的研究,工作方法体系仍有待深入探讨。本文在前人工作基础上,对城市地下空间地质安全风险的类型、地质诱因与核心评价指标,以及传统二维评价的局限性进行归纳总结,并结合三维地质建模、三维评价指标体系以及三维空间分析等关键三维方法技术,提出了一套较为系统的城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价技术方法体系。为验证方法的有效性,在南京市江北新区开展了城市地下空间地质安全风险三维评价实例研究,取得了较好的效果。研究显示该方法体系能够显著提升三维尺度下地下空间地质安全风险评价精度和准确性,为立体化地下空间开发提供有力支持。     

应用新型辐散方程诊断“6.28”关岭大暴雨的激发和维持机制

利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°和2.5°×2.5°再分析资料、FY—2E相当黑体亮温TBB资料和区域自动站逐时降水资料,结合新型辐散方程,对2010年6月28日贵州省关岭县一次特大暴雨天气的发生和维持机制进行了诊断分析。结果表明:(1)大气运动非平衡强迫使贵州西部地区出现辐合增长,激发了该区域暴雨天气的产生;(2)能量锋生与垂直风切变的耦合强迫,促进了贵州西部地区辐合的持续增长,使暴雨得以维持;(3)对流层中低层湿位涡水平分量与垂直涡度耦合,其负值中心与地面强降水中心相对应,随后中尺度对流复合体(MCC)云团北侧出现了新生单体,第二轮暴雨随即发生并维持。     

Transaction costs analysis of low-carbon technologies

Transaction costs (TCs) must be taken into account when assessing the performance of policy instruments that create markets for the diffusion and commercialization of low-carbon technologies (LCTs). However, there are no comprehensive studies on the development and application of transaction cost analysis to LCTs. In this meta-analysis, a wide-ranging evaluation of TCs associated with energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon market technologies is provided. There is a plethora of different definitions of, and measurement techniques to estimate, TCs. There is wide variation in the quantitative estimates, which can be attributed to factors such as the definition used, data collection, quantification methods, the type and size of technologies, the regulatory frameworks, the complexity of transactions, and the maturity of policy instruments. It is concluded that TCs are highly specific to both LCTs and policy instruments and that a common methodological approach is needed to avoid misleading policy analysis of the extant and future assessments.

Policy relevance

Transaction costs (TCs) accrued by, for instance, the search for information, due diligence, monitoring and verification (M&V) activities, must be considered in the design, implementation, and assessment of policy instruments. Such costs can have a negative effect on the performance of policy instruments aimed at the diffusion and commercialization of low-carbon technologies. It is shown here that TC analysis is mostly technology and policy context-specific and hence that it is not advisable to make generalizations about sources and estimates. The nature and scale of TCs are likely to differ due to a variety of endogenous determinants (e.g. size and performance of technologies), exogenous drivers (e.g. regulatory policy frameworks), and methodological aspects (e.g. quantification techniques). Several measures and strategies have the potential to reduce TCs, including standardized full cost accounting systems, an ex ante M&V approach, project bundling, and streamlining of procedures.     

New Zealand's abandonment of the Carbon Neutral Public Service programme

In 2009, New Zealand's new National-led government abandoned the Carbon Neutral Public Service (CNPS) programme, a Labour-led government initiative intended to help Government achieve carbon neutrality within its core agencies. This short analysis article provides an overview and brief assessment of the CNPS initiative by drawing on the relevant scholarly literature and public documents relating to New Zealand's climate change agenda. It is argued that although the CNPS programme faced a range of challenges it was successful in some respects. Although the Labour-led government was keen to act on climate change mitigation, New Zealand no longer intends to take a lead on carbon neutrality under the National-led government.