Volcanic hazards in the surroundings of Pico de Orizaba,eastern Mexico

Volcanic hazards from Pico de Orizaba volcano are presented here tor the first time. Some 1.3 million people live within the hazard zone, which in the most severe case would encompass the Mexican Gulf coast, east of the volcano. Three major cities located in the eastern part of the hazard zone account for 800 000 of this population and about 200 000 people live within a 20 km radius of the volcano. Probability calculations are presented as an attempt to quantify the hazards in the surroundings of the volcano. Such quantification can be of use in planning for future land use within the hazard zones.A zone of about 10 km radius centred on the top crater is a high hazard zone for gravity-driven flows and fallout ejecta. For large volume eruptions, the radius could be extended to 120 km to the east and 60 km to the west. The asymmetrical distribution is related to the topography of the volcano. Hazards from Pyroclastic-fall deposits are principally to the west of the volcano, since easterly winds are dominant in the area lava-flow hazards are greatest within a 10 km radius from the summit crater. Pyroclastic flow hazards are high up to 20 km from the volcano summit.In the case of reactivation of the volcano, melting of a glacier covering the summit of Pico de Orizaba having a volume equivalent to some 45 × 10⁹ litres of water, would produce lahars which would descend the flanks of the volcano.     

Fluid flow patterns and infiltration isograds in melilite marbles from the Bufa del Diente contact metamorphic aureole, north-east Mexico

In the inner aureole of the Bufa del Diente alkali syenite (north-east Mexico), thin calcareous argillite bands horizontally embedded in impure marbles acted as contact-metamorphic aquifers for hypersaline brines of magmatic origin. Thick-bedded marbles were largely impervious. From 180 m up to the intrusion contact, argillites were completely decarbonated, resulting in melilite + wollastonite + phlogopite + perovskite-bearing parageneses. In marbles, this assemblage is confined to a narrow 7-12-m-wide infiltration zone adjacent to the contact. Up to this distance, calcite + wollastonite + diopside + alkali feldspar + titanite was stable, indicating that the fluid evolution in these marbles was internally buffered. Brine infiltration from the metaargillite aquifer into the marbles occurred perpendicular to the marble-metaargillite boundaries and was confined to a zone 4-6 cm wide above the boundaries. This is documented by the three reactions Cc + Di = Mel + CO₂, (1) Cc + Kfs + Di + H₂O = Phl + Wo + CO₂, (2) Cc + Ttn = Prv + Wo + CO₂, (3) Melilites (Ak_32-45Gh_13-32Sm_32-40 to Ak_52-72Gh_0-1Sm_28-48) occur as rims around diopsides and become continuously thicker towards the metaargillite beds. Fluid inclusion observations suggest that the infiltrating brine was hypersaline (NaCl + KCl_cq～ 65 wt%) and that the reactions took place at the water-rich side of the H₂O-CO₂-salts immiscibility field at about 600d? C (2, 3) and 660 to 680d? C (1) at P～ 1200 bar and X_co2～ 0.02. Mass balance calculations show that the amount of brine infiltrated from the aquifer into the marble was very low and decreased continuously with increasing distance from the boundary. The maximum width of brine infiltration was about 6 cm. This confirms that brine flow was largely parallel to the aquifer, not perpendicular to it. The CO₂ produced by the decarbonation reactions probably escaped as an immiscible low-density H₂O-CO₂ fluid of X_co2≤ 0.5 into overlying marble via grain-edge flow. The metaargillite-marble boundary acted as a semipermeable membrane 6 cm in thickness keeping back the brine in the aquifer and losing the in-situ produced low-density CO₂-rich fluid.     

The lunar barometric tide in New Zealand

The lunar barometric tide has been determined with reasonable accuracy, on an annual and seasonal basis, at five stations on the mainland of New Zealand and at three of the outlying islands. The determinations show that in the New Zealand region the lunar tide has a larger amplitude and smaller phase than might have been expected from previously available southern-hemisphere results. In general, the seasonal variation of phase in the New Zealand region conforms to the currently recognised global pattern, with the J-season phase greater than that of the D-season. Similarly, the amplitude variation tends to support the suggestion that, south of latitude 30°S, the D-season amplitude is greater than that of the J-season. Approximate tests are introduced and used to assess the statistical significance of some of the apparent differences in amplitude and phase made evident by the analysis. These assessments indicate that although many of the apparent differences may be attributed to sampling fluctuations, the main regional anomalies in amplitude and phase are likely to be real. It is suggested that these anomalies may indicate a significant regional input of tidal energy to the atmosphere (at the lower boundary) from the Pacific oceanic tide.     

Geomorphic evolution of the Southern Alps,New Zealand

The Southern Alps are the topographic expression of late Cenozoic (<8 Ma ago) uplift of the crust of the leading edge of the Pacific plate in South Island, New Zealand. New fission track data on the basement exposed in the Southern Alps quantify the age, amount, and rate of rock uplift, and in combination with geomorphic parameters permit the construction of a new model of the geomorphic evolution of the Southern Alps. The model emphasizes the development over time and space of rock uplift, mean surface elevation, exhumation of crustal section, and relief. The earliest indications of mean surface uplift are between 4 and 5 Ma ago at the Alpine Fault. Mean surface uplift, which lagged the start of rock uplift, propagated southeastward from the Alpine Fault at a rate of 30 km/Ma. By about 4 Ma ago, exhumation had exposed greywacke basement adjacent to and east of the entire 300 km long central section of the Alpine Fault. At 3 Ma ago, greenschist was exposed in the southern parts of the Southern Alps near Lake Wanaka, and since then has become exhumed along a narrow strip east of the Alpine Fault. The model infers that amphibolite grade schist has been exhumed adjacent to the Alpine Fault only in the last 0·3 Ma. The age of the start of rock uplift and the amount and rate of rock uplift, all of which vary spatially, are considered to be the dominant influences on the development of the landscape in the Southern Alps. The Southern Alps have been studied in terms of domains of different rock uplift rate. At present the rate of rock uplift varies from up to 8–10 mm/a adjacent to the Alpine Fault to 0·8–1·0 mm/a along the southeastern margin of the Southern Alps. This spectrum can be divided into two domains, one northwest of the Main Divide where the present rock uplift rates are very high (up to 8–10 mm/a) and exceed the long-term value of 0·8–1·0 mm/a, and another to the southeast of the Main Divide where the long-term rate is 0·8–1·0 mm/a. A domain of no uplift lies immediately to the east of the Southern Alps, and is separated from them by a 1·0–1·5 km step in the basement topography. We argue that this spatial sequence of uplift rate domains represents a temporal one. The existing models of the geomorphic development of the Southern Alps—the dynamic cuesta model of J. Adams and the numerical model of P. Koons—are compared with the new data and evolutionary model. Particular constraints unrealized by these two earlier models include the following: the earlier timing of the start of rock uplift of the Southern Alps (8 Ma ago); the spatial variation in the timing of the start of rock uplift (8 Ma ago to 3 Ma ago); the lower long-term rock uplift rate (0·8–1·0 mm/a) of the Southern Alps for most of the late Cenozoic; the lag between the start of rock uplift and the start of mean surface uplift; and the patterns of the amounts of late Cenozoic rock uplift and erosion across the Southern Alps.     

Early deformation fabrics of melange in the Mesozoic Waipapa Terrane, North Island, New Zealand

Abstract The Waipapa Terrane in northern North Island, New Zealand, is a Mesozoic accretion-ary complex formed along the Gondwana margin. It contains abundant melange rocks with distinctive characteristics. Precise analyses of their mesoscopic fabrics in Waiheke Island near Auckland have revealed the following sequence of deformation. The earliest phase of deformation of the sandstone/mudstone association, which is the main constituent of this terrane, originated by chaotic mixing of sand and mud due to liquidization of water-saturated, poorly consolidated sediments. The second phase was characterized by hydrofracturing and subsequent forceful injection of ductile mud into rather brittle sand. Local intrusions of sand forming dykes and sills followed these events, as well as intrusions of pelagic/hemipelagic green argillite originally underlying the sandstone/mudstone association. An abundant occurrence of these mixing and multi-stage injection/intrusion fabrics strongly suggest that the Waipapa Terrane around the study area was a site of high pore-fluid pressure. Scaly-foliated melange fabrics with monoclinic symmetry, originating from layer-parallel shearing, were then locally superimposed on the pre-existing melange fabrics. Similar scaly-foliated fabrics also developed in the chert beds originally intercalated between the green argillite and the uppermost part of the oceanic crust. These scaly fabrics might have been related to the regional stacking and juxtaposition of the accreted sediments. The sequence and variation in style of deformation forming the melange fabrics presumably reflected changes in porosity and state of compaction of accreted sediments in a shallow tectonic level.     

Slab weakening: Mechanical and thermal-mechanical consequences for slab detachment

Abstract Slab detachment is a geophysical instability whose manifestation can be revealed by seismic tomography. Evidence of this phenomenon is in the Dinarides/Hellenic and the New Hebrides subduction zones. Subducted slabs in these regions are torn horizontally at depths ranging from 100 to 300 km. We constructed a viscoelastic three-dimensional finite element model and investigated the state of stress. We found that an area with high stress concentration of the order of several hundred MPa is formed near the tip of the tear inside the slab, which can cause lateral migration of the tear. Favorable conditions for slab detachment are characterized by large interplate frictional force at a subduction zone and small slab resistance force deeper down. Stress concentration increases with the down-dip tension inside the slab. The phenomenon of slab weakening has also been studied from a thermal-mechanical standpoint, using a two-dimensional convection model with non-Newtonian, temperature-dependent rheology. The stress-dependent rheology plays an important role in causing local weakening of the descending slab. In strongly time-dependent situations the fast descending slab is not strong everywhere but has a weak region in the middle, making it vulnerable to slab detachment. The presence of viscous heating will enhance slab detachment tendency by further weakening the interior by the frictional heating. Besides these effects, there are other mechanisms which can also weaken the slab interior and help to make slabs more pliable and susceptible to detachment.     

Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.     

江苏浅层低温位地热资源开发利用前景

江苏能源供应的严峻形势促使了地热资源的勘查和开发力度的加大；地热工作的实践和科学技术的进步，逐步扩大了其工作领域；浅层地温作为江苏地热资源开发利用的新领域被提上日程，依据现有资料，认为其前景广阔。     

A Spatial Variant of the Basic Reproduction Number for the New Orleans Yellow Fever Epidemic of 1878

A spatial variant of the basic reproduction number (R₀), here defined as the number of subsequent deaths attributed to an initial mortality, can be used to identify geographic variation within an epidemic. A spatial R₀ was calculated at the neighborhood level, here defined by a 50‐m buffer surrounding an index case, for mortality data from the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans. The highest number of secondary mortalities linked to a neighborhood index case was twelve, with a further eighty‐seven extrapolated morbidity cases. Results also highlight the importance of multideath residences and cultural contacts in neighborhood‐level disease spread.