有限区分析预报系统及其业务应用

中国国家气象中心在新开发的有限区多元最优插值分析技术及１５层球面网格原始方程模式的基础上建立了一个新的有限区分析预报系统。１９９１年投入业务使用，主要用于２４－４８ｈ降水预报。这个系统是依附于全球同化预报系统的一个分支系统。亦即使用全球谱模式６ｈ预报作为初估值进行有限区细网格分析及使用其１２—６０ｈ预报作为侧边界值进行非同步嵌套预报。作为一个升级模式系统，它的进步表现在：较充分使用了卫星测湿资料及地面资料的细网格多元最优插值分析；同时使用同场及质量场初值，成功地实现了有限区非线性正规模初始化处理；采用位涡拟能守恒差分格式，包含较真实地形的球面坐标原始方程模式；实现了具有不同模式地形的差分模式与谱模式的嵌套及设计了分级降水客观检验系统。     

一个人造台风方案及其在移动套网格模式中的应用

发展了一个用于台风路径预报的初始场人造台风方案。该方案除包含对称台风环流外,也考虑了非对称凤的作用。使用双向移动套网格模式作的试验预报结果表明,初始场中引入人造台风后能明显提高路径预报的水平。      

T63预报产品对暴雨增强预报业务系统的影响及效果分析

利用兰州区域气象中心暴雨增强数值预业务系统，对应Ｔ６３模式预报产品资料和不用Ｔ６３模式预报产品资料两种方案进行了对比试验，并逐日分析了１９９６年７月、８月西北区的降水及形势预报结果，对其中几次大的降水过程作了重点讨论。     

水文模式DHSVM与区域气候模式RegCM2/China嵌套模拟试验

本研究在改进水文 -土壤 -植被模式DHSVM ,用气候观测资料驱动DHSVM进行模拟试验的基础上 ,建立了区域气候模式RegCM2 /China与水文模式DHSVM的嵌套系统 ,将区域气候模式对中国和东亚地区控制试验 (目前气候情景 )和敏感性试验 (未来 2×CO2 气候情景 )结果用双线性插值方法降尺度 (downscaling)到滦河、桑干河流域的 8个气象站点 ,然后再用数字高程模式DEM插值到DHSVM的细网格点 ,驱动水文模式进行嵌套模拟试验。试验结果表明 ,滦河、桑干河流域在未来大气中CO2 浓度加倍情况下 ,地面气温呈一致的增加趋势 ,年平均气温增加2 .8℃ ;两流域未来降水也呈增加趋势 ,滦河、桑干河流域年降水量分别增加 6mm和 4 6mm ;两流域未来蒸发量有所增加 ,年均蒸发量增加 2 9mm ;未来滦河流域年径流深减少 2 7mm ,流量减少 14 .72× 10 8m3 ,桑干河流域径流深增加 2 6mm ,流量增加 12 .2 2× 10 8m3 ,两流域合计 ,流量减少 2 .5× 10 8m3 ;未来滦河、桑干河流域径流深趋向一致 ,分别为 74和 71mm ,约为全国目前平均径流深 2 84mm的 1/ 4。可见 ,两流域未来总体上仍呈现暖干化趋势。本研究发展的嵌套模式系统具有一定的预测能力 ,而且通过参数移植 ,可应用于中国其他流域     

牛山湖浮游生物群落DNA指纹结构与理化因子的关系

对牛山湖5个站点的浮游生物群落DNA多态性进行了RAPD指纹和PCR-DGGE指纹分析,并探讨了其与理化因子的关系.结果如下:1)从40条随机引物中筛选出9条引物,共获得93条谱带,多态率为58%;各站点所得谱带平均为67条,其中I站最少,为61条,V站最多,为74条;2)PCR-DGGE指纹图谱共含102条谱带,其中原核生物56条,真核生物46条,谱带总数以Ⅲ站、Ⅳ站和V站较多,Ⅰ站和Ⅱ站较少;3)Ⅱ站的总磷、叶绿素、化学耗氧量、硬度及电导率最高;各站点间溶氧和pH差异较小.相似性聚类分析表明,浮游生物群落DNA指纹将5个站点划分为两支,Ⅰ站和Ⅱ站聚为一支,Ⅲ站、Ⅳ站和V站聚为另一支,理化因子将Ⅰ站、Ⅲ站、Ⅳ站和V站聚为一支,Ⅱ站单独聚为一支.研究表明牛山湖浮游生物群落DNA指纹结构与理化因子具有一定的相关性,并且与环境主要限制因子总磷的含量是密切相关的.因此,浮游生物群落级水平DNA分析能简便、准确、迅速地反映水质状况,这方面资料的积累可以为建立一种基于分子生物学简便而灵敏的水环境评价体系提供科学依据.     

扎陵湖和鄂陵湖大气边界层特征的数值模拟

利用美国科罗拉多州立大学和MRC/ASTER发展的中尺度数值模式RAMS(Regional Atmos-pheric Modeling System),设计了有、无湖对比模拟试验,以NCEP再分析资料作为初始条件和边界条件进行了120h的三重嵌套模拟试验。结果表明,模式的模拟性能良好。模拟的大气边界层特征显示,由于扎陵湖、鄂陵湖的存在,白天(夜晚)具有很好的降温(保温)作用,并表现出明显的冷(暖)湖效应;在白天(夜晚)扎陵湖、鄂陵湖有明显的湖(陆)风效应;在两湖之间的陆地低层有辐合和风切变,且鄂陵湖西岸的湖风比扎陵湖东岸的强,削弱了扎陵湖东岸的湖风;扎陵湖、鄂陵湖使得白天湖区的边界层顶低,周边陆地区域的边界层顶高,夜间则相反;扎陵湖、鄂陵湖对感热和潜热的影响有很强的日变化,白天湖面的感热小于周围陆地,夜间湖面的潜热则大于周围陆地。     

Spatiotemporal pattern of bacterioplankton in Donghu Lake

Bacterioplankton play key roles in the biogeochemical cycle and in organic contaminant degradation. The species richness and abundance of bacterial subgroups are generally distinct from each other, and this is attributed to their different functions in aquatic ecosystems. The spatiotemporal variations of eight phylogenetic subgroups （Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, Firmicutes, Planctomycetes, alpha-, beta-, and gamma-Proteobacteria） derived from Donghu Lake were investigated using PCR-DGGE fingerprinting, to explore their responses to environmental factors. Results indicate that Actinobacteria and beta-Proteobacteria were the two largest bacterial subgroups detected. These two groups and Bacteroidetes showed clear seasonal patterns in composition of the operational taxonomic unit. Results also suggest that the bacterioplankton subgroups in Donghu Lake were significantly correlated with different environmental factors. In brief, the total nitrogen was one of the major factors regulating all the bacterioplankton except for Actinobacteria. However, total phosphorus, another important eutrophication factor, contributed to the two largest bacterial groups （Actinobacteria and beta-Proteobacteria）, as well as to the Cyanobacteria and Firmicutes. Therefore, the responses of bacterioplankton subgroups to environmental factors were different, and this should be attributed to the differences in the fimctions of different groups.     

Bacterial diversity of gut content in sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) and its habitat surface sediment

This study investigated the bacterial diversity of gut content of sea cucumber(Apostichopus japonicus) and its habitat surface sediment in a bottom enhancement area using PCR-based denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis(DGGE) technique. Bacterial diversity evaluation showed that the value of the Shannon-Wiener index of gut content in different intestinal segments of A. japonicus varied between 2.88 and 3.00, lower than that of the surrounding sediment(3.23). Phylogenetic analysis showed that bacterial phylotypes in gut content and the surrounding sediment of A. japonicus were closely related to Proteobacteria includingγ-, α-, δ-and ε-proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicute, and Actinobacteria, of which γ-proteobacteria were predominant. These results suggested that the sea cucumber A. japonicus was capable of feeding selectively, and PCR-DGGE was applicable for characterizing the bacterial community composition in gut content and the surrounding sediment of sea cucumber. Further investigation targeting longer 16S rDNA gene fragments and/or functional genes was recommended for obtaining more information of the diversity and function of bacterial community in the gut content of sea cucumber.     

GSTA is a major glutathione S-transferase gene responsible for 4-hydroxynonenal conjugation in largemouth bass liver

We have previously shown that largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) has a remarkable ability to conjugate 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal (4HNE), a mutagenic and cytotoxic α,β-unsaturated aldehyde produced during the peroxidation of lipids. In addition, we have isolated a glutathione S-transferase cDNA (bass GSTA) that encodes a recombinant protein which is highly active in 4HNE conjugation and structurally similar to plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) GSTA. In the present study, HPLC-GST subunit analysis revealed the presence of at least two major GST isoforms in bass liver, with one peak constituting 80% of the total bass liver GST protein. Liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC–MS) and electrospray ionization analysis of the major bass GST subunit yielded a molecular weight of 26,396 kDa. Endo-proteinase Lys-C digestion and Edman degradation protein sequencing of this GST peak demonstrated that this protein was encoded by bass GSTA. Analysis of genomic DNA fragments isolated by nested PCR indicated the presence of a GST gene cluster in bass liver that contained GSTA, and was similar to a GST gene cluster characterized by Leaver et al., in plaice. Collectively, our data indicates the presence of a major GST in bass liver involved in the protection against oxidative stress. This GST is part of a gene cluster that may be conserved in certain freshwater and marine fish.     

Beyond the boom-bust cycle: An interdisciplinary framework for analysing crop booms

The expansion of commercial agriculture is one of the primary drivers of livelihood and land-use changes in the world. Globalisation and other factors have intensified this expansion to the point where booms in single cash crops overtake entire regions before going bust, a pattern that is particularly pervasive in resource frontiers. Using case studies across the Mekong Region, a place which serves as a harbinger for crop booms globally, we propose a new analytical framework for understanding and governing crop booms. We combine multiple theoretical approaches to study crop booms and draw on insights from case study work conducted across temporal and spatial scales. The framework consists of three components: 1) the nested nature of crop boom-bust trajectories, 2) the cyclical spatial and temporal patterns of crop booms, and 3) the variegated pathways and impacts of agrarian change. The framework presents new insights into the processes of agricultural intensification in frontier spaces. As such, it facilitates a better understanding of the drivers, characteristics and impacts of crop booms for researchers and decision-makers alike with the intention of supporting efforts to develop more sustainable pathways in the region and beyond.