Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

Improbability of DUrca Process Constraints EOS

According to recent observational and theoretical progresses, the DUrca process （direct Urca process） may be excluded from the category of neutron star cooling mechanisms. This result, combined with the latest nuclear symmetry energy experiments, will provide us an independent way of testing the EOS （equation of state） for supernuclear density. For example, soft EOSs, such as FPS, will probably be excluded.     

He Conductivity in Cool White Dwarf Atmospheres

We investigate the conductivity of warm dense helium under conditions found in the atmospheres of cool white dwarfs using ab initio simulations. The calculations performed consist of quantum molecular dynamics simulations where the electronic wavefunction at each time step is obtained using density functional theory, while the ion trajectories are calculated using the resulting quantum mechanical forces. We use both conventional DFT (PW91) and hybrid (PBE0) functionals to calculate the conductivities that provide an estimate of the ionization fraction. While the calculations are in good agreement with the measurements for the equation of state, a significant discrepancy exists with the recently measured conductivity.     

基于模糊Hopfield神经网络的大气降水粒子分类

提出基于模糊Hopfield神经网络的大气降水粒子分类,它是通过计算样本间的模糊关系的相似程度,再加上Hopfield网络所特有的高稳定性,对大气降水粒子进行分类.通过对各降水粒子所对应雷达回波数据的分析,验证了方法的可行性.     

Oil migration driven by exhumation of the Canol Formation oil shale: A new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field,northwestern Canada

Thermal history, petroleum system, structural, and tectonic constraints are reviewed and integrated in order to derive a new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field, and a new play type for tectonically active foreland regions. The thermal history recorded by Devonian rocks suggests that source rocks experienced peak thermal conditions in the Triassic–Jurassic, during which time oil was likely generated. After initial oil generation and expulsion, the Canol Formation oil shale retained a certain fraction of hydrocarbons. The shallow reservoir (650–350 m) is a Devonian carbonate bank overlain by the Canol Formation and resides within a hanging wall block of the Norman Range thrust fault. Both reservoir and source rocks are naturally fractured and have produced high API non-biodegraded oil. Thrust faults in the region formed after the Paleocene, and a structural cross-section of the field shows that the source and reservoir rocks at Norman Wells have been exhumed by over 1 km since then.The key proposition of the exhumation model is that as Canol Formation rocks underwent thrust-driven exhumation, they crossed a ductile–brittle transition zone and dip-oriented fractures formed sympathetic to the thrust fault. The combination of pore overpressure and new dip-directed subvertical fractures liberated oil from the Canol Formation and allowed for up-dip oil migration. Reservoir rocks were similarly fractured and improved permeability enhanced charging and pooling of oil. GPS and seismicity data indicate that strain transfer across the northern Cordillera is a response to accretion of the Yakutat terrane along the northern Pacific margin of North America, which is also the probable driving force for foreland shortening and rock exhumation at Norman Wells.     

曹县梁堤头地区第四系地裂缝成因及防治

鲁豫交界的曹县黄河故道地区,地势较高的自然堤堤缘区是地裂缝等地质灾害的高发区。地裂缝主要由地表厚粘土层干湿胀缩产生,有一定的隐蔽性,并受地形和大气影响。地下水动态变化对地裂缝影响不大。地表裂隙张力的直接作用、建筑物的非均质土地基不均匀沉陷等因素的存在共同导致了该区民房开裂。可以采取加固地基和搬迁避让等方法进行防治。