Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.     

Investigations and assessment of the landslide hazards of Fengdu county in the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze River

The spatial database of landslides in Fengdu County of the reservoir region of the Three Gorges project (TGP) on the Yangtze River was compiled from a variety of different sources including field investigations on landslides, existing catalogues and archives on landslides, reports of meteorological events and human engineering activities that triggered slope failures. The major factors that are found to have affected the slope stabilities are outlined, and an assessment and zonation of landslide hazards of the region is made using an integrated information model, which is divided into destructive, disastrous, likely disastrous and essentially non-disastrous areas from the assessment of landslide hazards. The destructive and disastrous areas are respectively 1.9 and 13.8% of the total region, mostly being nearby townships, highways along the south bank of the Yangtze River and residential quarters along two flanks of the Yangtze River and its distributaries, that will impose direct impact to highway transportation and residential lives, and may effect to some degree the navigation of the Yangtze River, reservoir banks, and building of cities and towns.     

The Tornado Hazard In Southern New England: History,Characteristics, Student And Teacher Perceptions

Abstract

People generally do not perceive New England to be tornado-prone. Yet, there is a long history of such storms in the six states going back to the late seventeenth century. Usually, New England tornadoes are small and short-lived; even so, some have caused many deaths and much property damage. There is a greater probability for a person to be affected by a tornado in southern New England than in much of the American Midwest. As building and population density increases, so does the hazard potential. Data from awareness surveys indicate that the lack of tornado knowledge remains a serious problem for teachers, students, and the public, and government information about such storms is not being widely disseminated.     

基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型

地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Injection and arrest of dykes: implications for volcanic hazards

Dykes are the principal channels through which magma reaches the surface in volcanic eruptions. For this reason dykes observed in the field are commonly assumed to be feeders to lava flows. The actual proportion of dykes reaching the surface is, however, poorly known. In order to develop models for the purpose of estimating volcanic hazard, this proportion must be known. This follows because such models should not only consider the probability of dykes being injected from magma chambers during periods of unrest in the associated volcanoes, but also the probability of the injected dykes being arrested. This paper presents field data on several thousand dykes from Iceland and Tenerife (Canary Islands) indicating that many, and probably most, dykes become arrested at various crustal levels and never reach the surface to feed eruptions. Using the results of analytical and numerical models, it is shown that, for common loading conditions, the stress field in the vicinity of a magma chamber may favour the injection and propagation of dykes while the stress field at a certain distance from the chamber favours dyke arrest. This means that many dykes that are injected from the chamber propagate only for a very limited distance from the chamber to the point where they become arrested. The implication is that during periods of unrest in volcanoes, the probability of volcanic eruption is only a small fraction of the probability of dyke injection from the source magma chamber.     

Assessing probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site in a given exposure time using CPTU

This paper is a follow-up to a previous paper on the subject of liquefaction potential index (LPI), a parameter that is often used to characterize the potential for surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site subjected to a given shaking level (represented by a pair of peak ground surface acceleration a_max and moment magnitude M_w). In the previous paper by Juang and his coworkers, the LPI was re-calibrated for a piezocone penetration test (CPTU) model, and a simplified model based on LPI was created for computing the conditional probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction (P_G). In this paper, the model for this conditional probability P_G is extended into a complete framework for assessing the probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction in a given exposure time at a given site subjected to all possible ground motions at all seismic hazard levels. This new framework is formulated and demonstrated with an example site in 10 different seismic regions in the United States.     

The use of X-ray tomography in the study of water repellents and consolidants

To reduce the weathering rate of natural building stones, a wide variety of water repellents and consolidants are commercially available. Although a lot of research is performed on these products, it remains difficult to determine which product is appropriate to use for a certain type of building stone. Each type of building stone has its own petrographic characteristics (mineralogy, texture, …), leading to typical physical and technical properties which influence its rate of decay. The localisation of the products inside a stone type is not only depending on the properties of the products themselves, but also linked to the texture and structure of the stone. The impregnation depth of the products strongly influences their efficiency and is therefore a key issue in the determination if a product is functional for a certain type of stone. X-ray micro-CT has recently been introduced as a non-destructive material evaluation technique for engineering and geology purposes. The fact that micro-CT can provide information about the internal structure and properties of natural building stones, is a major advantage in the study of their conservation. Firmly linked with more classical research techniques, this non-destructive technique offers an extra dimension to the cultural heritage research.In this paper, non-destructive X-ray computed micro-tomography (micro-CT) turns out to be a powerful tool as it can visualise the presence of water repellents and consolidants inside the stone and can help to detect the influence that these treatments exert on porosity and pore-size distribution. For the visualization of the product its atomic number and density and the amount of product inside the natural building stone is crucial. Besides the contrast in attenuation, the resolution of the micro-CT also needs to be taken into account to obtain a good contrast between stone and product. By doping with 3-bromopropyltrimethoxysilane, more contrast occurs between the stone material and the conservation product. When the amount of product inside the samples is very low and the product is homogeneously spread inside the sample, the doped product is difficult to distinguish from the stone material due to the resolution of the micro-CT. When the amount of doped product inside the stone material reaches a certain threshold value, the dope will appear in the 2D cross-sections derived from micro-CT, creating a good visualization of the products inside the stone samples.     

Correlations of natural radionuclides in sediment from Danube

The correlation between specific activities of some natural radionuclides (²³⁸U, ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, ⁴⁰K) measured in sediment taken from river bottom was studied. The sediment was taken from the Serbian part of the Danube River. Good correlation between some of the isotopes is observed, so that their specific activity ratios are spread over a lower range than specific activities themselves. This suggests that evaluation of specific activity ratios of some natural radionuclides could be a more sensitive method for the determination of increased levels of some of them than the straightforward analysis of specific activities.     

川藏公路中段地质灾害现象的航空遥感研究

川藏公路巴塘至林芝段位于我国青藏高原东南部,该地区是现今地壳运动十分强烈的地区之一,地形起伏强烈,气候变化多样,因此地质灾害十分发育,川藏公路就穿过这样一个复杂的地区。为查明公路沿线的地质灾害分布情况,90年代初,地矿部航空物探遥感中心沿川藏公路进行了彩色红外航空摄影,比例尺为1∶6万。通过彩色红外航片的解译及野外实地观测,圈定出滑坡、泥石流及崩塌等灾害现象,并对这些灾害的强度、活动性及其对公路的影响进行分析,最后对灾害成因及治理方法提出了建议。