自然灾害复杂性研究

从自然灾害系统的观点出发,阐述了自然灾害系统的特点,提出了自然灾害复杂性的概念。基于前人研究的一些成果,讨论了分形,混沌,人工神经网络等非线性理论以及定性与定量综合集成技术在自然灾复杂性研究中的应用。     

中国传统民居建筑文化的自然地理背景

讨论了气候、地貌与水文、地质与植被等自然地理要素对中国传统民居建筑的格局、型式、风格、特色等方面的影响。在此基础上分析了以功利观、审美观和生态观为内涵的中国传统民居建筑文化的自然观。     

自然类比法对张北──尚义6.2级地震序列类型和震后趋势早期判断实例

用自然类比法对1998年1月10日张北─尚义6．2级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行了早期判断,找出了与之最相似的四个序列是1976年9月23日巴音木仁6．2级地震（S17）、1996年5月3日包头6．4级地震（558）、1985年4月18日禄劝6．3级地震（S34）和1984年5月21日南黄海6．0级地震（S33）。由此判断张北地震序列为主震余震型,推算最大余震震级应在4．3～4．7之间,一个月内4级以上余震数可能在11～22次之间。实测结果张北地震最大余震震级4．6,一个月内4级以上余震数18次,均在预测范围内。     

反射系数K法在地质灾害评价中的应用

应用电阻率测深法探测滑坡和塌陷,采用反射系数K法区分滑坡和塌陷的类型和性质,正确地评价地质灾害,为治理工作提供快速准确的地质依据。     

Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

福建东山岛地质灾害特征与成因初探

海岛是海上陆地国土和人类开发海洋的远涉基地及前进支点。海岛大幅度地快速增长的开发活动与工程建设使脆弱的海岛生态环境正遭受到严重威胁。东山岛是福建第二大岛,近10年随着水产养殖与育苗、风电建设、环岛公路和房地产开发等海岛利用和开发强度的加大,海岛地质灾害及潜在风险陡增。基于现场调查和遥感影像解译,分析东山岛赋存的地质灾害类型及其分布,初步探究了主要地质灾害的诱因,为更有效地保护和可持续性开发东山岛,制定合理长效规划、防灾与减灾对策提供准确依据,并为福建及周边基岩岛的地质灾害调查与防治提供实测数据参考。     

Oil migration driven by exhumation of the Canol Formation oil shale: A new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field,northwestern Canada

Thermal history, petroleum system, structural, and tectonic constraints are reviewed and integrated in order to derive a new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field, and a new play type for tectonically active foreland regions. The thermal history recorded by Devonian rocks suggests that source rocks experienced peak thermal conditions in the Triassic–Jurassic, during which time oil was likely generated. After initial oil generation and expulsion, the Canol Formation oil shale retained a certain fraction of hydrocarbons. The shallow reservoir (650–350 m) is a Devonian carbonate bank overlain by the Canol Formation and resides within a hanging wall block of the Norman Range thrust fault. Both reservoir and source rocks are naturally fractured and have produced high API non-biodegraded oil. Thrust faults in the region formed after the Paleocene, and a structural cross-section of the field shows that the source and reservoir rocks at Norman Wells have been exhumed by over 1 km since then.The key proposition of the exhumation model is that as Canol Formation rocks underwent thrust-driven exhumation, they crossed a ductile–brittle transition zone and dip-oriented fractures formed sympathetic to the thrust fault. The combination of pore overpressure and new dip-directed subvertical fractures liberated oil from the Canol Formation and allowed for up-dip oil migration. Reservoir rocks were similarly fractured and improved permeability enhanced charging and pooling of oil. GPS and seismicity data indicate that strain transfer across the northern Cordillera is a response to accretion of the Yakutat terrane along the northern Pacific margin of North America, which is also the probable driving force for foreland shortening and rock exhumation at Norman Wells.     

曹县梁堤头地区第四系地裂缝成因及防治

鲁豫交界的曹县黄河故道地区,地势较高的自然堤堤缘区是地裂缝等地质灾害的高发区。地裂缝主要由地表厚粘土层干湿胀缩产生,有一定的隐蔽性,并受地形和大气影响。地下水动态变化对地裂缝影响不大。地表裂隙张力的直接作用、建筑物的非均质土地基不均匀沉陷等因素的存在共同导致了该区民房开裂。可以采取加固地基和搬迁避让等方法进行防治。     

输电线路电磁干扰对北斗变形监测数据质量及定位精度的影响分析

我国自主研发的北斗卫星导航系统已完成组网,除了传统测绘领域之外,目前北斗正在各行业普及,落实相关应用。本文针对输电线路地质灾害监测应用,从北斗原始观测值数据质量、定位精度两个角度探究输电线路电磁环境对北斗卫星监测数据的影响。长达23d的500kV输电线路北斗监测数据分析结果表明：在强电磁干扰、无电磁干扰两种情形下,数据完整率差异小于1%,多路径效应差异小于0.1m,信噪比差异均小于0.3dBHz,周跳比差异均小于150;定位精度的相对差别小于5%。综合而言,输电线路电磁环境对北斗变形监测数据质量及定位精度的影响不显著。