Natural hazards in British Columbia: an interdisciplinary and inter-institutional challenge

 Although British Columbia experiences many natural hazards, there is as yet no unified policy to promote natural hazard management in the province. The problem is not in the quantity and quality of geoscience assessment of natural hazards, but instead, it is suggested, in the isolation of that work from broader risk perspectives and in the lack of clarity of division of responsibilities between various levels of government. The example of recent changes in perception of the terrain stability problem illustrates how natural hazard problems are driven by social and political priorities rather than by geoscience priorities. Received: 22 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 November 1998     

略阳县地质灾害发育特征及其危险性初步评价

根据野外实地调查,描述并总结了陕西省略阳县地质灾害的发育特征。依据地质灾害点目前的稳定状态和潜在危害程度,定性评价了区内各地质灾害点的危险性。并利用地质灾害的重现性,基于各地质灾害点的危险程度,综合区内的地形地貌、地质条件和人为因素、气象水文条件,对略阳县地质灾害危险性进行了分区,其结果可为当地的土地规划和防灾减灾提供依据。     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans in sediments from Hong Kong

Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were determined in 14 sediment samples collected from four sites in the Mai Po Marshes Nature Reserve (within a RAMSAR Site) and from another six sites in Victoria Harbour and along the Hong Kong coastline. Elevated levels of PCDDs, and particularly OCDD, were detectable in all samples collected from the Mai Po Marshes and five of the six sites. In contrast to PCDDs, PCDFs were mainly found in sediment samples collected from industrial areas (Kwun Tong and To Kwa Wan) in Victoria Harbour. PCDD/F levels and congener profiles in the samples from the Mai Po Marshes Nature Reserve in particular show strong similarities to those reported in studies which have attributed similar elevated PCDD concentrations to nonanthropogenic PCDD sources.     

Natural Gas Hazard (CO2, 222 Rn) within a Quiescent Volcanic Region and Its Relations with Tectonics: The Case of the Ciampino-Marino Area, Alban Hills Volcano, Italy

Groundwater surveys were performed by detailed(around 300 sites) grid-analysis of water temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, ²²²Rn, alkalinity and by calculating the pCO₂, throughout the Ciampino and Marino towns in the Alban Hills quiescent volcano (Central Italy). Following several episodes of dangerous CO₂ exhalation from soils during the last 20 years and earlier ashistorically recorded, the work aimed at assessing the Natural Gas Hazard (NGH) including the indoor-Rn hazard. The NGH was defined as the probability of an area to become a site of poisonous peri-volcanic gas exhalations from soils to the lower atmosphere (comprising buildings). CO₂ was found to be a ``carrier' for the other poisonous minor and in trace components (H<sub>s</sub>S, CH<sub>4</sub>, <sup>222</sup>Rn, etc.). This assessment was performed by extrapolating in the aquifer CO<sub>2</sub> and <sup>222</sup>Rn conditions, and discriminating sectors where future CO<sub>2</sub> flux in soils as well as indoor-Rn measurements have to be noted. A preliminary indoor-Rn survey was performed at about 200 sites. The highest values were found in the highest pCO<sub>2</sub> and high <sup>222</sup>Rn values in groundwater. This indicates convection and enhanced permeability in certain sectors of the main aquifer, i.e., along the bordering faults and inside the gas-trap of the Ciampino Horst., where ``continuous gas-phase micro-macro seepage mechanism' is invoked to explain the high peri-volcanic gases flux.     

地质灾害的非线性数据处理与建模技术

本文简略地介绍了几种地质灾害数据处理与建模的非线性方法,主要包括GMDH自组织建模技术、神经网络方法。GMDH是一种高阶非线性回归建模方法,它是以简单的二元二次回归方程为基础,通过"代复一代"的"生产"过程,客观、自动地求得实际资料的非线性模型。而神经网络则是用工程技术手段模拟生物神经网络的结构特征和功能特征的一类人工系统。与常规统计方法相比,神经网络最突出的优点为它是通过对网络的学习和训练,来掌握变量之间的非线性关系。因此,其处理复杂问题的能力更强大。实例检验效果表明,这些非线性数据处理与建模技术考虑了地质灾害问题的非线性特性,其比基于常规统计理论的数据处理方法的精度要高得多。     

A field study of the coupled effects of aquifer stratification,fluid density,and groundwater fluctuations on dispersivity assessments

A number of experimental studies have tackled the issue of solute transport parameter assessments either in the laboratory or in the field. But yet, the behavior of a plume in the field under density driven forces, is not well known due to possible development of instabilities. Some field tracer tests on the fate of plumes denser than native groundwater such as those encountered under waste disposal facilities, have pointed out the processes of sinking and splitting at the early stage of migration. The process of dispersion was widely investigated, but the range of dispersivity values obtained from either experimental tests, or numerical and theoretical calculations is still very large, even for the same type of aquifers. These discrepancies were considered to be essentially caused by soil heterogeneities and scale effects. In the meantime, studies on the influence of sinking and fingering have remained more scarce. The objective of the work is to analyze how transport parameters such as dispersivities can be affected by unstable conditions, which lead to plume sinking and fingering. A series of tracer tests were carried out to study under natural conditions, the transport of a dense chloride solution injected in a shallow two-layered aquifer. Two types of experiments were performed: in the first type, source injection was such that the plume could travel downward from one layer to the other of higher pore velocity, and in the second one, the migration took place only in the faster layer. The results suggest some new insights in the processes occurring at the early stages of a dense plume migration moving in a stratified aquifer under groundwater fluctuations, which can be summarized through the following points: (i) Above a stability criterion threshold, a fingering process and a multi modal plume transport take place, but local dispersivities can be cautiously derived, using breakthrough curves matching. (ii) When water table is subject to some cycling or rising, the plume can be significantly distorted in the transverse direction, leading to unusual values of the ratio between longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. (iii) Under stable conditions, for example in the case of straightforward injection in the faster aquifer layer, longitudinal dispersivity is greater than the transverse component as usually encountered, and the obtained transport parameters are closed to macro dispersivity values, which reach their asymptotic limit at very short distances. (iv) The classical scale effect about the varying dispersivity at short distances could be a process mainly due to the distance required for a plume stabilization.     

周、秦、汉、唐时期关中地区自然灾害与粮食安全问题研究

周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中农业较为发达,为多个王朝建都之地。京师之地的粮食问题十分重要,汉代以后屡屡出现粮食紧张局面,其原因除移民、战乱等因素外,自然灾害的影响不容忽视。研究发现,周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中的粮食在秦以前基本自给,两汉、魏晋以后依赖关东趋于明显,隋唐时期关中粮食所需则自产自给和漕运并重。这一演变过程,与关中自然灾害的发生状况有着紧密联系。随着西汉以后生态环境的破坏和人类垦殖活动的日益加剧,关中地区水旱灾害发生频繁,对粮食安全产生了严重影响。期间的中央政府不断采取扩大农业垦殖、提高农业生产技术和漕运等手段,以解决京师用粮。     

A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

酸碱滴定法测定天然石膏中的碳酸盐(无水碳酸)

建立了用溴百里酚蓝—酚红作指示剂,酸碱滴定法测定天然石膏中碳酸盐的方法。在确定了试验条件的基础上,对石膏国家一级标准物质GBW03109a和GBE03110分析,相对标准偏差分别为0.08%、1.05%;分析3个天然石膏样品,相对标准偏差分别为1.47%、1.67%和0.25%;对试样进行加标回收,回收率在95.53%～97.02%之间;方法检出限为0.15%。表明用该方法测试,结果准确可靠。     

New method for in situ characterization of loose material for landslide mapping purpose

The assessment of grain size distribution and plasticity of loose geological material, during in situ geological investigations, is not obvious. Visual appreciation allows an approximative quantification of the coarse granulometric fractions, but not of the fine ones. Field soils determination methods suggested until now, are visual and tactile tests leading to a very rough estimate, which is only qualitative and not very reproducible. The new proposed field test (GEOLEP method) allows a quick quantification of the fine fraction of loose material. It allows the determination of the sand fraction (fine and medium grained sands) as well as the methylene blue value of the samples. The necessary equipment to perform this test is light and compact and the time needed to analyze one sample is approximately 15 min. Thus it is also possible to carry out numerous measurements in one day. The calibrations were carried out on a selection of 13 natural samples, chosen for their representativeness of the typical alpine quaternary deposits. The results obtained with GEOLEP method are relevant compared with standardized laboratory tests; the obtained correlation indexes are of 73% for the comparison with laboratory stain test results and of 89% with a laboratory method using a similar procedure than the field test. The correlation we performed with Atterberg's limits tests shows that a rough approximation of plasticity index can also be obtained (R² = 75%). This method thus brings a new tool which should allow taking into account the lithological factor (by some quantitative and representative variables) in a reliable way for the evaluation of landslide hazards.