Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Application of the photoacoustic method for characterization of natural galena (PbS)

Electron transport properties of single crystal and polycrystalline natural mineral galena (PbS) samples from the Trep?a mine, Yugoslavia, were determined using the photoacoustic frequency transmission technique. Their thermal diffusivity (D _T≈0.16 × 10^?5 m² s^?1), the coefficient of diffusion (D between 0.15×10^?2 0.16×10^?2 m² s^?1) and lifetime of the excess carrier (τ≈35 μs and the front and rear recombination velocity (s _g≈65.5 m s^?1 and s _b≈66.4 m s^?1, respectively), were calculated by comparing the experimental results and the theoretical photoacoustic amplitude and phase signals. The lattice parameter obtained by X-ray work was a?=5.936?Å. The free carrier concentration of these single-crystal samples was measured using the Hall method (N?=?3×10¹⁸ cm^?3). Measurements of the optical reflectivity of the same samples, as a function of wavelength, in the infrared and far infrared ranges, were performed. In the far infrared range a free electron plasma frequency was observed and numerically analyzed, using the least-squares fitting procedure. The values of optical parameters were calculated and the value of the free carrier concentration obtained by the Hall method was confirmed.     

浙江天目山自然保护区珍稀濒危植物及其利用与保护

天目山是浙江省珍稀濒危植物最丰富的地区，共有国家保护的珍稀濒危植物２５科、３４属、３７种，其中属二级保护１３种，三级保护２４种．论述了天目山珍稀濒危植物的区系特点、类型及地理分布，列举了它们的一些利用价值，最后提出了保护天目山珍稀濒危植物的一系列建议．     

几种有效的测井找气方法

已建立的几种有效测井找气方法,在我国天然气勘探开发中应用,发现了许多气层.本文综述这几种有效的测井找气方法,并给出了实例.     

东北平原农田防护林网区土地资源系统结构及动态

本文在对东北平原农田防护林网区土地资源系统基本结构分析的基础上,利用典型区域的数据对该土地资源系统动态进行分析。本区的土地资源系统进入广泛的农业开发时间仅五、六十年,但经过强人工作用,已从垦殖期转入衰竭期。只有以人工再生(高投入)的方式才能保证土地资源的永续利用,维持系统的良性循环。否则,仅仅依赖自然再生(低投入)为主要的物质能量返回形式,必然导致粮畜生产带走物质能量,造成土地肥力得不到必要补充,形成土地资源日益衰竭的恶性循环系统。     

An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent,West Indies

The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.Formerly at Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.     

Noble gases dissolved in groundwater in a volcanic aquifer: Helium isotopes in the Kumamoto Plain

This study Investigates a tracing method using dissolved noble gases to survey the groundwater flow in a large groundwater basin. The tracing method is based on measuring the concentrations of noble gases and the ratio of helium isotopes in groundwater samples. Since it is very difficult to detect trace amounts of noble gases and helium with high accuracy in a 15-ml groundwater sample, dissolved gases were extracted and purified, then a high-resolution mass spectrometer was used for measurement and comparison with standard samples. We used this method with samples from a confined aquifer formed by the deposition of pyroclastic flow in the Kumamoto Plain on the west side of Mt. Aso in central Kyushu, Japan. The groundwater basin under the plain is divided into four small basins, based on the helium concentrations and isotope ratios, with two major groundwater flows. One flow is buried by the Aso pyroclastic flow along the old Kase River; the other is along the Tsuboi River Valley. These two groundwater flows were identified from the different helium isotope-ratios. The helium component from the deep mantle is mixed into the groundwater under the Kumamoto Plain. Finally, data on the concentrations and ratios of³He to⁴He in groundwater samples were used to determine the location of faults in the volcanic aquifer.     

Quantitative analysis of springs

Growing demand for groundwater resources and stringent environmental concerns has led to large groundwater investigations, including characterization of aquifer systems that are hydraulically connected to springs. A pumping test is one of the most reliable means of quantifying hydraulic characteristics and the response of natural springs to pumping because it yields results that, in general, are representative of a larger area than are results from a single point observation. Recharge to the aquifer sustaining discharge from springs must be evaluated prior to the utilization of springs. The spring hydrograph is analyzed, as the shape of a hydrograph is a reflection of the response of the aquifer to recharge. The form and rate of recession provide significant information on the storage, lithological composition, and structural characteristics of the aquifer system sustaining the spring. Water tracing techniques have been developed and used over a period of centuries to delineate catchment boundaries, estimate groundwater flow velocities, determine areas of recharge, and identify sources of pollution of spring water.     

利用铀矿床进行天然类似物研究

天然类似物研究是国际上新兴起的一门边缘科学。本文结合我国实际情况，综述研究的意义以及我国开展这项研究的有利条件、课题优选和具体开发内容。     

遥感技术在吉林省地质灾害及其防治研究中的应用

总结和介绍发生在吉林省的地震、地裂缝、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷、地面沉降、水土流失、陨石雨、沙漠化、盐碱化、沼泽化及洪涝灾害的特点、分布状况及形成机制,探讨了防治与减灾对策。以航、卫片解译查明各地质灾害的影象特征及分布范围,表明遥感技术在地质灾害的调查和监测中,具有重要意义。