MARINE HAZARDS IN COASTAL AREAS AND HUMAN ACTION AGAINST THEM-A CASE STUDY OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARIES AND QIANTANG RIVER

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Marine hazards in coastal areas and human action against them—A case study of the Changjiang River estuaries and Qiantang River

China's eastern coastal area marine hazards (storm surge, erosion and deposition by tidal currents and seawater intrusion) and the history, present situation, experiences and problems of inhabitants in their fight against marine hazards are discussed in this paper, which also suggests counter-measures against, and scientific and rational management of, coastal area marine hazards in order to protect the coastal and estuarine ecosystems.     

枣庄南部岩溶塌陷风险预测及评估

枣庄南部岩溶塌陷发育,严重制约着当地经济的发展,并对居民生产、生活构成威胁。通过对影响岩溶塌陷的各要素进行系统的调查,结合当地社会经济发展资料,采用信息预测的方法,对枣庄南部岩溶塌陷进行风险预测及评估,并对不同地段的岩溶塌陷风险等级进行划分,从而为枣庄市地下水资源合理开发利用、环境治理、保护与规划提供了决策依据。     

基于UML和面向对象方法的GIS应用模型设计与实现

应用分析模型是面向专业应用领域GIS的关键模块之一,其设计和实现应具备良好的可扩展性和可移植性,从而达到软件复用、降低系统维护成本的目标。采用面向对象方法,对辽宁省鞍山市地质灾害评价预警系统中地质灾害危险性区划分析模型模块进行分析和设计,提出分别封装表达地质灾害分析模型方法的抽象类(class CModel)、描述灾害评价因子的抽象类(class CFactor),以及描述灾害分析单元格的抽象类(class CGridLayer)的设计方案,达到模块划分的“高内聚、低耦合”要求,便于模块的修改和扩展。以描述单元格的抽象类(class CGridLayer)作为模块与GIS平台的中间层,面向模块屏蔽不同GIS平台的实现细节,使得模块具备良好的可移植性。最后,以MapGIS 6.5为平台,按上述设计方案构建鞍山市地质灾害评价预警系统并投入实际应用。     

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Earthquake hazard in Jordan

An estimate of the maximum macroseismic intensities and ground accelerations which might be expected for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is made. The inferred maximum magnitudes lie in the range of 6.1 to 7.3 although the possibility that larger earthquakes can occur with long recurrence times cannot be precluded. Peak horizontal accelerations in the range of 0.4 to 0.5 g can be expected in Jordan. Probabilistic estimates indicate that the odds are about even (50-50) that an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6 will occur within 80 years.     

涡流地震检波器的特性及测试方法的研究

本文介绍了涡流地震检波器的工作原理、结构及其频率响应特性--涡流检波器的输出特性在固有频率之上是按外界激励频率的平方递增。高频灵敏度随着激励频率的增加而增高有助于弥补高频信号通过地层传播时的急剧衰减,从而提高了地震勘探的分辨率。在固有频率之下,则加强了低频滤波作用。 本文还以对单自由度线性振动系统的动态分析为基础,研究了利用实验幅频特性曲线来求该系统的固有频率和阻尼系数的方法,推导出必要的计算公式。最后举出一个应用实例,并检验了这种方法的可信度。     

An Examination of Behavior and Hazards Faced by Physically Disabled People During the Loma Prieta Earthquake

There is a need to study hazards faced by physically disabled people during earthquakes. A literature review showed the importance of occupant behavior as a factor that contributes to casualty during earthquakes. A survey questionnaire was used to study the behavioral responses of 33 disabled residents, none of whom sustained injury, during the Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. An occupant risk analysis methodology was developed to study the sequence of activities of the disabled people. Severe restrictions in the physical capabilities of the respondents did not appear to increase their exposure to hazards. Overall, the physically disabled occupants did not think of themselves as vulnerable, and those who felt vulnerable initiated self-protective action in response to the hazards present in their immediate surroundings.     

Flooding of Sinking Creek,Garretts Spring karst drainage basin,Jessamine and Woodford counties,Kentucky, USA

Tashamingo Subdivision in Sinking Creek karst valley, a tributary of the Garretts Spring drainage basin in Jessamine and Woodford counties, Kentucky, was flooded in February 1989. To determine the cause of flooding, the groundwater basin boundary was mapped, discharge data were measured to determine intake capacity of swallets, and hydrologic modeling of the basin was conducted. Swallet capacity was determined to be limited by the hydraulic parameters of the conduit, rather than by obstruction by trash. Flooding from a precipitation event is more likely, and will be higher, when antecedent soil moisture conditions in the watershed are near saturation. Hydrologic modeling shows that suburban development of 20 percent of the southeast basin will cause a small increase in flood stage at Tashamingo Subdivision.     

Lightning fatalities in Australia, 1824–1991

Information on fatalities from lightning strikes has been extracted from a specially compiled database on natural hazards in Australia. Records dating from 1803–1991 indicate that at least 650 persons have been killed by lightning strikes. Maps and charts show the percentages of victims with respect to age, sex, locality, activity, and other circumstances of the strike. The majority of the 650 fatalities recorded have occurred along the more populous southeastern coast. The overall death rate, from 1910–1989, is 0.08 per 100 000 population. The annual number of lightning fatalities has decreased with time, from a death rate of 0.21 in 1910–1919 to 0.01 in 1980–1989. This trend is more pronounced when population figures are taken into account. The group that has been most at risk in Australia is that of males aged 15–19, followed by males aged 20–34. The male:female ratio of victims has decreased with time but is not approaching equality, being 11.6 in 1910–1919 and 5.3 in 1980–1989. The diurnal and monthly occurrences of lightning fatalities peak at 12.00–18.00 hours and November-February respectively. About 86% of fatalities have occurred outdoors and 14% have occurred indoors. Approximately three-fifths of fatalities have been work-related, and the group of workers that has traditionally been most at risk is that of land-workers. Approximately one-fifth of fatalities have been recreation-related, although this proportion has been increasing with time. The recreational activities of water sports, golf, and cricket have had the greatest number of lightning fatalities. Comparisons are made between these data and the results of other similar studies, both in Australia and overseas.