基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型与模拟

中国城镇化正处于快速发展阶段,尽管经济和社会发展主控要素还在发挥重要作用,但水资源在生产、生活和生态方面发挥主控作用的局面愈益明显。在中国城镇化系统动力学（system dynamics,SD）模型基础上,从水资源供给、需求和水环境等层面将水资源作为主控要素嵌入原有模型中,拓展出基于水资源约束的中国城镇化SD模型,并对水资源利用进行了多情景模拟。结果表明：① 系统存流量和灵敏度检验证明模型模拟效果良好,具有可操作性。② 部门用水效率一定时,产业发展对水资源供需平衡的影响比人口增长更为明显。③ 在实行节水农业、节水工业、高生活需水、高生态环境需水和高再生水利用的综合协调方案中,2050年中国城镇化的发展约共需6789.70亿 m³水资源,基本实现水资源供需平衡。     

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to...     

乐山市水资源承载力分析及开发潜力研究

水资源的供需关系已演变为限制经济社会不断发展的一个关键障碍,所以对水资源承载力展开探究,以支撑经济和社会的不断发展,将会具有现实意义和至关重要的影响,本文从水资源负载指数和承载指数模型出发,根据当前乐山市水资源情况现状,对当地水资源承载力进行分析。     

Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Xilin Gol Grassland Transects: A Perspective on Food Nutritional Demand

Food safety is an important issue for the development of the national economy and society. Studying regional food supply and demand from the perspective of land resource carrying capacity can provide new references for regional resource sustainability. This study uses the data from farmer and herdsmen household questionnaires, statistical data, land use data, and other sources to construct a land resource carrying capacity (LCC) assessment framework, targeting the food supply and demand of residents in representative areas, specifically the typical grassland pastoral areas, sandy pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas on the Xilin Gol grassland transects. The three food nutritional indicators of calories, protein and fat were selected for analyzing the balance of land resource carrying capacity. We found that: 1) Along the Xilin Gol grassland, the main local food supply showed a shift from meat and milk to grains, vegetables and fruits. 2) From north to south along the grassland transects, the calorie intake increased gradually, while the intake of protein and fat was highest in pastoral areas and lowest in agricultural areas. 3) The overall land resource carrying capacity of the Xilin Gol grassland transects was in a surplus state, but the land carrying capacity of typical grassland pastoral area was higher than the two other types of areas. This study provides an empirical reference for the sustainable development of regional food nutrition.     

广东雷州珍稀海洋生物国家级自然保护区 海水环境质量状况分析与评价

2018年9月和12月,两次调查了广东雷州珍稀海洋生物国家级自然保护区海域海水的环境质量。结果表明,该保护区平均综合水质指数为0.38,一类海水平均达标率为93.59%,海水中铅、磷酸盐、锌的含量达标率偏低,分别为53.85%、73.1%、96.15%。12月保护区海水中的无机氮、磷酸盐、溶解氧、叶绿素a含量明显高于9月,保护区实验区和缓冲区站位的水质优于核心区站位的水质。该保护区海域综合水质定性评价结果为优。靠近康港附近站位的营养盐相对偏高,磷酸盐的平均达标率仅为73.1%,因此,需加强对康港附近海域养殖情况的监控,尽量减少养殖废水对保护区海域的排放,保持保护区海水清洁,以利于对保护区内珍稀海洋生物及其栖息地的保护。     

An integrated approach to assess the ecological and chemical status of lakes with HOD/AHOD: a case study of two lakes

The thermal strati?cation of the lakes impedes the transfer of atmospheric oxygen into the lower layers of the lake. In lakes which are af fected by diverse anthropogenic in?uences, the increasing organic matter amounts lead to a sharp decrease in hypolimnetic oxygen amounts, aided by thermal strati?cation,and anaerobic conditions arise. The determination of hypolimnetic oxygen demand(HOD) and areal hypolimnetic oxygen demand(AHOD) and their monitoring represent an integrated approach to investigate the oxygenation of lakes, the nutrient conditions, and the physicochemical dynamics. In this study, two lakes dif fering by size and af fected by dif ferent anthropogenic sources, are investigated in this respect. At?rst, bathymetric studies were conducted to determine the depth, surface area, and volume relationships.Then, based on monitoring studies conducted in 2013 and 2014, the thermal strati?cation dynamics and layer properties were established using the relative thermal resistance to mixing(RTRM) index based on temperature and density pro?les. Following this, the oxygen depletion rates were determined by oxygen and temperature pro?ling in the hypolimnion. For the years of 2013 and 2014, the AHOD values for the Borabey Pond which is far from anthropogenic in?uences, were found to be 0.848 and 0.569 g O 2/(m·d), respectively.The AHOD values for the Porsuk Reservoir which was overburdened for years by industrial and domestic pollution were found to be 4.263 and 5.099 g O 2/(m·d), larger than its counterpart by almost sevenfold. The HOD and AHOD monitoring can be considered to a valuable tool for assessing the ecological and chemical status of lakes within Annex 5 of the Water Framework Directive and as an integrated approach to assess and monitor the status of lakes.     

基于加权破产博弈模型的跨境流域水资源分配研究

基于公平合理利用视角,将多准则决策模型与破产理论相结合探讨跨境水资源分配问题.通过梳理国际水法,设计了跨境流域水资源公平合理分配的指标体系,采用投影法解决这一多准则决策问题,并依此加权调整流域国用水需求.在加权调整用水需求和考虑议价能力的基础上,基于破产博弈模型探讨跨境流域水资源分配问题,以提高分配方案的公平合理性和可...     

后疫情时期全球铁矿资源格局分析

铁是我国用量最大、用途最广的金属,新冠肺炎疫情期间国际铁矿石市场出现较多新变化,分析国际铁矿石供需和市场格局变化原因,研判未来趋势,对于保障我国铁矿石资源稳定供应具有重要意义.本文首先分析了新冠肺炎疫情下,全球钢铁产量、铁矿石供应和价格变化趋势,分析发现受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球铁矿石供需格局进一步集中,呈现"两个国家,...     

晚新生代洛川典型风尘堆积序列的延伸

对中国黄土标准剖面———洛川黄土剖面之下的上新世红黏土进行了沉积特征和磁性地层学的研究,结果表明洛川红黏土堆积于约2.6~3.2 MaBP期间,从而确定世界惟一的黄土类地质公园的风尘开始堆积的年代约为3.2 MaBP。古气候替代性指标磁化率和粒度的分析表明,洛川风尘堆积序列记录了上新世到第四纪古气候的重大转型。     

三江源国家公园生态系统服务时空变化及权衡-协同关系

本文基于“当量因子法”、空间自相关及相关系数等方法,定量分析了1990—2015年三江源国家公园生态系统服务的时空变化及生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明：① 1990—2015年,三江源国家公园生态系统服务价值呈不断上升趋势,从研究初期的542.37亿元增加至研究末期的834.70亿元,增长292.33亿元,增幅53.90%,每一阶段平均增长率为9.01%;长江源园区与黄河源园区生态系统服务价值占比情况与三江源国家公园整体情况一致,水域的生态系统服务价值最高,其次为草地、湿地,其中草地与水域提供了各园区90%以上的生态服务;澜沧江源园区的生态系统服务占比则为草地（70.58%）、湿地（23.58%）、水域（3.38%）。② 空间上,长江源园区及澜沧江源园区的生态系统服务价值呈东南高西北低的特征;黄河源园区则呈现西高东低特征。③ 相关分析表明,协同关系是三江源国家公园生态系统服务之间的主导关系,但各生态系统服务之间的相关程度各异。④ 数量方面,4类典型生态服务之间的权衡与协同关系的Moran′s I指数与相关性系数表现一致;空间分析方面,生态系统服务之间权衡与协同关系的异质性显著。