国家自然科学基金人文地理学项目研究特征简析

以2007-2011 年国家自然科学基金人文地理学代码(D0102) 的申请书作为样本,对申请代码、重点研究领域以及研究内容进行梳理,分析中国人文地理学近期发展特征。分析认为,科学问题综合与学科间交叉研究的增加使人文地理学学科边界呈现模糊化的趋势;研究方向体现了时代特点且各研究方向之间申请数量比较均衡;研究关键词大量涌现但共识性表述相对较少;选题颇具本土应用特点但学科体系建设意识逐步增强。     

中国对钢铁资源的长期需求预测

钢铁工业是我国的支柱产业,对国内钢铁的长期需求进行科学预测,可以为我国经济发展的战略发展进行科学决策提供重要依据。由于我国铁矿资源不能满足国民经济发展需求,对钢铁需求的预测,不仅对我国钢铁工业布局和全球产业链配置具有重要参考价值,更对我国企业海外矿山投资具有重要指导意义。本文通过模型组合预测了“十二五”期间我国对钢的需求及其供需平衡,抛砖以引业内外人士高水平长期预测之玉。     

黑龙江哈尔滨白渔泡国家湿地公园沼泽、林地和农田土壤物理、化学和生物性质差异

为了揭示黑龙江哈尔滨白渔泡国家湿地公园沼泽、林地和农田土壤物理、化学和生物性质的差异,于2018年7月25日～8月2日,在湿地公园内,在天然芦苇(Phragmites australis)沼泽、林地、旱田和水田中设置采样地,采集不同深度(0～10 cm、10～20 cm和20～30 cm)的土壤样品,测定土壤样品的物理...     

Assessment of future Syrian water resources supply and demand by the WEAP model

Abstract

Water availability is one of the most important factors for economic development in the Middle East. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess present and future water demand and supply in Syria till 2050. Nonconventional water resources, climate change, development, industrial growth, regional cooperation, and implementation of new water saving techniques/devices were considered important factors to include in the analysis using the WEAP model. Six scenarios were evaluated depending on the actual situation, climate change, best available technology, advanced technology, regional cooperation, and regional conflict. The results display a vital need for new water resources to balance the unmet water demands. Climate change will have a major effect on Syrian water resources; possible regional conflict will also to a major extent affect water balance. However, regional cooperation and using the best available technology can help in minimizing the gap between supply and demand.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Topographic and spectral data resolve land cover misclassification to distinguish and monitor wetlands in western Uganda

Wetlands provide vital wildlife habitat and ecosystem services, but changes in human land use has made them one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems. Although wetlands are generally protected by law, growing human populations increasingly drain and clear them to provide agricultural land, especially in tropical Africa. Managing and conserving wetlands requires accurately monitoring their spatial and temporal extent, often using remote sensing, but distinguishing wetlands from other land covers can be difficult. Here, we report on a method to separate wetlands dominated by papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.) from spectrally similar grasslands dominated by elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schumach.). We tested whether topographic, spectral, and temperature data improved land cover classification within and around Kibale National Park, a priority conservation area in densely populated western Uganda. Slope and reflectance in the mid-IR range best separated the combined papyrus/elephant grass pixels (average accuracy: 86%). Using a time series of satellite images, we quantified changes in six land covers across the landscape from 1984 to 2008 (papyrus, elephant grass, forest, mixed agriculture/bare soil/short grass, mixed tea/shrub, and water). We found stark differences in how land cover changed inside versus outside the park, with particularly sharp changes next to the park boundary. Inside the park, changes in land cover varied with location and management history: elephant grass areas decreased by 52% through forest regeneration but there was no net difference in papyrus areas. Outside the park, elephant grass and papyrus areas decreased by 61% and 39%, mostly converted to agriculture. Our method and findings are particularly relevant in light of social, biotic, and abiotic changes in western Uganda, as interactions between climate change, infectious disease, and changing human population demographics and distribution are predicted to intensify existing agricultural pressure on natural areas.     

华北区域分米级北斗地基增强服务系统构建及精度分析

利用国家级北斗连续运行基准站和省级区域北斗CORS站,基于国家卫星导航定位服务平台,通过改造和直接利用的方式,在华北平原构建了我国首个跨区域北斗分米级地基增强服务系统。经采用双频终端实地测试,该系统覆盖京津冀晋全部区域及内蒙古部分区域,采用GPS+北斗双模定位静态精度达到分米级,动态定位精度达到亚米级,单北斗模式定位精度略低,但仍在分米-亚米量级,极大地提高了我国北斗导航系统的高精度应用能力,拓宽了我国北斗民用导航的应用范围和领域,可满足高精度北斗实时导航、定位服务的应用需求。     

基于多源数据的夜间经济时空分布格局研究方法

夜间经济是一个城市经济发展和消费水平的重要表征。目前国内外研究者对夜间经济的研究多停留在理论层面,或基于市场调研和问卷调查的小范围精细化研究。本文融合多源数据为夜间经济提供了新的视角,相较于传统的调查数据,具有更加快速、高效、广泛的特点,适合于夜间经济大范围研究。本文基于夜间灯光、POI、OD流等多源数据,采用DBSCAN、K-Means++等空间聚类算法和研究供需关系的盈亏法,分别从消费者角度和商户角度识别厦门市夜间活动热点区域和夜间服务设施分布区域,分析厦门市夜间经济时空分布格局及相关性。研究表明:① 厦门市夜间活动在空间上呈多环状分布并向四周递减,夜间活动热点区域分布受假期的影响因地而异;② 厦门市部分区域已有服务设施未能很好地服务于夜间经济,现有的照明、夜景等夜间灯光基础设施存在供给不足之处;③ 居住人口密度与夜间活动密度呈中度正相关,研究结果具有有效性,夜间服务设施盈亏值及数量、夜间灯光与夜间活动密度呈中、弱度相关,并且餐饮设施更加依赖于夜间灯光。最后,为厦门市未来夜间经济建设提出了根据不同的消费人群和心理提供不同的夜间服务、加强夜间灯光基础设施建设以及市场扶持的举措。研究结论对促进社会就业、增强基础设施使用率有积极意义,同时也能够为城市夜间经济发展和政策制定提供参考。     

全国基准产业集群识别及在区域经济分析中的应用——以北京市为例

全国基准产业集群反映一国产业技术经济联系的一般特征,可以作为模板应用于区域集群分析。本研究首次识别我国基准产业集群,为我国的区域集群实证研究提供集群模板。以识别的基准产业集群为模板,本研究分析了北京市制造业集群的发展现状,并以北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群为例分析了该集群的组成结构及空间布局。分析发现,北京市目前已形成三个规模较大,并具有区域专业化优势的制造业集群:电子及通信设备制造、汽车及装备制造和电子元器件制造业集群。北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群的优势环节是通信设备制造和其他通信、电子设备制造业,其配套产业环节电子元器件和其他电气机械及器材制造业仍相对较弱。在空间上,北京市电子及通信设备制造业集群主要分布在城市近郊地区,朝阳、海淀、大兴区是集群环节配套较为完善的区域。     

ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTRUAL INFORMATION DEMAND——Case of Jilin Province

With the rapid development of agricultural informalization in the world, the demand of agricultural information has been a focus in the international agriculture and information fields. Based on the investigation, this paper presented the four characteristics of the demand of agricultural information in China, includingregionality, seasonality, great potential demand and variation in kind and level. The factors infuencing the demand of agricultural information were analyzed by the Optimized Less Square （OLS） method. The result shows that, of all factors influcing agricultural information demand, the most important one is economy, the second is facility of information pass, and knowledge and education of user, credit of agricultural information service system and production situation follow. Taking Jilin Province as an example, this article also elaborated the agricultural information demand status, and deduced the regression model of agricultural information demand and verified it by the survey in rural Jilin.     

A Road to Conflict: Stakeholder’s and Social Network Analysis of the Media Portrayals of a Social-Environmental Conflict in Bolivia

Society’s understanding of a conflict is mediated by information provided in mass media, for which researchers stress the importance of analyzing media portrays of stakeholders in a conflict. We analyze information from the Bolivian press regarding the construction of a road crossing the Isiboro-Sécure Indigenous Territory and National Park (TIPNIS). Using stakeholder’s and social network analyses, we explore stakeholder’s positions and alliances as represented in the media and contrast it with previous scholarly work. We found that some actors cited as central in scholar analyses of the conflict are largely absent in the media (e.g., private investors, conservationist sector) and that the media tend to present stakeholders as having more homogeneous positions than the academic literature does while also neglecting some important alliances in their account. The media also suggests that Indigenous communities are forging stronger alliances with urban sectors and civil society, alliances not stressed by researchers.