北祁连东段及其邻区地震滑坡的基本特征和危险区预测

本文根据野外调查和航片解译，研究了北祁连东段及其邻区地震滑坡的基本特征和形成条件，探讨了地震滑坡的动力机制，并在本区使用多因素模糊数学综合评判方法预测滑坡危险区。     

祁连山冰川变化及其脆弱性

Glaciers are a reliable freshwater resource in arid regions of West China and the vulnerability of its changes is closely related to regional ecosystem services and economic sustainable development. Here, we took the Qilian Mountains as an example and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier changes from 1998 to 2018, based on remote sensing images and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. We estimated the basic organizational framework and evaluation index system of glacier change vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which covered the factors of physical geography, population status and socio-economic level. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of glacier change vulnerability by using the vulnerability evaluation model. Our results suggested that:(1) Glacier area and volume decreased by 71.12±98.98 km² and 5.59±4.41 km³, respectively, over the recent two decades, which mainly occurred at the altitude below 4800 m, with an area shrinking rate of 2.5%. In addition, glaciers in the northern aspect(northwest, north and northeast) had the largest area reduction. Different counties exhibited remarkable discrepancies in glacier area reduction, Tianjuan and Minle presented the maximum and minimum decrease, respectively.(2) Glacier change vulnerability level showed a decreasing trend in space from the central to the northwestern and southeastern regions with remarkable differences. Vulnerability level had increased significantly over time and was mainly concentrated in moderate, high and extreme levels with typical characteristics of phases and regional complexity. Our study can not only help to understand and master the impacts of recent glacier changes on natural and social aspects but also be conducive to evaluate the influences of glacier retreat on socio-economic developments in the future, thus providing references for formulating relevant countermeasures to achieve regional sustainable development.     

中亚天山地区关键水文要素变化与水循环研究进展

天山地处欧亚大陆腹地,是丝绸之路经济带中段的重要水源地.天山地区的水循环系统具有时空差异性大、水源机制复杂、径流构成多元以及水系统脆弱等特点,水循环各环节受陆表格局和气候变化影响显著,水文要素对气候变化响应敏感,难以沿用现有的流域水循环模式阐述其内在机理.结合文献阅读和研究,系统分析了气候变化背景下天山地区关键水文要素...     

Characteristic of Gravity and Magnetic Anomalies in the Daba Shan and the Sichuan basin, China: Implication for Architecture of the Daba Shan

The Dabashan nappe structural belt links the Hannan block to the west with the Huangling block to the east between Yangxian and Xiangfan. The Dabashan arc-shaped fold belt formed during late Jurassic and was superposed on earlier Triassic folds. To achieve an improved understanding of the deep tectonics of the Dabashan nappe structural belt, we processed and interpreted the gravity and magnetic data for this area using new deep reflection seismic and other geophysical data as constraints. The results show that the Sichuan basin and Daba Mountains lie between the Longmenshan and Wulingshan gravity gradient belts. The positive magnetic anomalies around Nanchong-Tongjiang-Wanyuan-Langao and around Shizhu result from the crystalline basement. Modeling of the gravity and magnetic anomalies in the Daba Mountains and the Sichuan basin shows that the crystalline basement around Nanchong-Tongjiang-Wanyuan-Langao extends to the northeast underneath the Wafangdian fault near Ziyang. The magnetic field boundary in the Zhenba-Wanyuan-Chengkou-Zhenping area is the major boundary of the Dabashan nappe thrusting above the Sichuan Basin. This boundary might be the demarcation between the south Dabashan and the north Dabashan structural elements. The low gravity anomaly between Tongjiang and Chengkou might be partly caused by thickened lower crust. The local low gravity anomaly to the south of Chengkou-Wanyuan might result from Mesozoic strata of low density in the Dabashan foreland depression area.     

宁镇中段矿化斑岩体的侵位深度及剥蚀程度研究

判别岩体侵位深度对找矿富有指导意义,查明岩体剥蚀程度是评价斑岩铜矿找矿前景的重要因素之一。运用岩体"盖层"厚度恢复法、成岩温度与压力计算法、蚀变矿化分带判别法、岩体的顶垂体、捕虏体、析离体及岩脉发育状况判别法,以及岩石的结构、构造和矿物结构形态判别法,综合研究了宁镇中段主要斑岩体的侵位深度和剥蚀程度,结果表明宁镇中段侵入体总体上具有由西向东、由南向北剥蚀程度逐渐加深的特点。     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

采点和去趋势方法对天山西部云杉上树线树轮宽度年表相关性及其气候信号的影响

针对新疆天山西部伊犁、博州三大山体北坡云杉上树线树木年轮资料,采用区域曲线、负指数曲线、样条函数三种不同生长去趋势方法,研制树轮宽度年表,分析不同采点和树轮去趋势方法对树轮宽度年表在不同频域的相关性及气候信号的影响发现：①采点间的距离和是否位于同一气候区是影响云杉上树线树轮宽度年表间相关性的首要因子。三个采点间的树轮宽度变化,在高频变化方面最为相似,低频变化存在着较大差异,表明它们在揭示和重建大范围的高频气候变化方面可能具有较大的应用潜力。②三种不同去趋势方法对天山西部山脉北坡上树线的云杉树轮宽度年表的研制具有一定影响,负指数和样条函数去趋势方法研制的树轮年表较为相似,而区域曲线去趋势方法研制的树轮宽度年表中则可保留较多的轮宽低频变化信息。③降水是天山西部云杉上树线的树轮宽度生长的主要限制因子,且树轮宽度生长对降水的响应具有显著的滞后性。④在天山西部的云杉上树线采点,使用区域曲线去趋势方法有利于在树轮宽度年表中保留较多的与水分有关的气候信息。     

The processes and characteristics of mass balance on the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 during 1958–2009

As a solid reservoir, a glacier can regulate regional water resources. The annual net mass balance directly reflects the fluctuation of the glacier and climate variability. Based on 51 years of mass balance observation data, the mass balance of Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1 experienced a nine times positive balance fluctuation and nine times negative balance fluctuation. There were 35 and 16 negative and positive balance years, respectively. From 1996/97 to 2008/09, 12 consecutive negative balance years were observed at Tianshan Mountains Urumqi Glacier No. 1. These results demonstrate that the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is experiencing a strong negative balance, and the strongest negative balance, -931 mm w.e. (mm water equivalent), during the observation period occurred in 2008. In addition, the cumulative mass balance reached 13,709 mm w.e. in 2008. However, in 2009, the mass balance was positive at 63 mm w.e. The equilibrium-line altitude changes with the fluctuation in the mass balance, and the effective mass balance gradient is 7.4 mm/m. In this paper, the headwaters of the Urumqi River were analyzed using meteorological data from 1958 to 2009, including the average seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the main factor associated with the mass balance variation of Glacier No. 1 is the fluctuation in the summer air temperature, followed by changes in the precipitation.     

Snow Cover Variation in the Past 45 Years (1959-2003) in the Tianshan Mountains, China

 Meteorological data at 17 weather stations in the Tianshan Mountains from 1959 to 2003 were analyzed to explore the variations in temperature and snow cover. The abrupt change test for snow depth was performed using Mann-Kendall statistic. The spatial distribution of maximum snow depth was calculated by employing GIDS interpolation and DEM data. The results show that mean temperature in winter had a rising trend at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a. The minimum temperature in winter increased more evidently at a rate of 0.79 ℃/10 a. The maximum snow depth has obviously deepened at a rate of 1.15 cm/10 a in the past 45 years, and it was about 16% higher than the average during 1991-2003. The Mann-Kendall statistic test of snow depth indicates that the abrupt change occurred in 1976. The maximum increment for snow cover depth occurred in Zhaoshu (Kunes) (39.3%) and Nilka (39.7%) in the west Tianshan Mountains. In contrast, the snow cover depth reduced by 17% in Barkol in the east Tianshan Mountains. There was a primary change periodicity of about 2.8 years in snow cover. In addition, snow cover days with a depth more than 10 cm increased distinctly, however, there was no obvious advance or delay in snow beginning and ending dates.     

Basal‐topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide

The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground‐based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60‐ to 61‐year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60–300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring‐fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61‐year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Published in 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.