论日本海区深震等深线凸进方向的动态变化及其在地震预报中的意义

深震等深线加深的梯度方向,反映了板块插入方向和板块俯冲力作用的主体方向;等深线凸进方向的动态变化,反映了贝尼奥夫带的偏转;日本海深源地震和我国东部地区浅震的个体(强震)和群体迁移,反映了深、浅部应力场强区的转移。这种转移的深层原因,可能与上地幔物质流流动方向变化有关。强区范围的圈定和转移规律,对地震的地点预报,具有重要意义。     

Seismic image of the Mount Spurr magmatic system

 The three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of Mount Spurr is determined to depths of 10 km by tomographic inversion of 3,754 first-arriving P-wave times from local earthquakes recorded by a permanent network of 11 seismographs. Results show a prominent low-velocity zone extending from the surface to 3–4 km below sea level beneath the southeastern flank of Crater Peak, spatially coincident with a geothermal system. P-wave velocities in this low-velocity zone are approximately 20% slower than those in the shallow crystalline basement rocks. Beneath Crater Peak an approximately 3-km-wide zone of relative low velocities correlates with a near-vertical band of seismicity, suggestive of a magmatic conduit. No large low-velocity zone indicative of a magma chamber occurs within the upper 10 km of the crust. These observations are consistent with petrologic and geochemical studies suggesting that Crater Peak magmas originate in the lower crust or upper mantle and have a short residence time in the shallow crust. Earthquakes relocated using the three-dimensional velocity structure correlate well with surface geology and other geophysical observations; thus, they provide additional constraints on the kinematics of the Mount Spurr magmatic system. Received: 4 December 1997 / Accepted: 27 February 1998     

Timing of mineralization and deformation,Peak Au mine,Cobar, New South Wales∗

The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of alteration muscovite from the Peak Au mine in the Early Devonian Cobar Basin, New South Wales, has distinguished two major episodes of mineralization. Veined (Pb‐Zn‐Cu‐Au) mineralization was broadly synchronous with cleavage formation during the post‐inversion, shortening deformation of the basin sedimentary rocks, and replacive Ag‐Pb‐Zn mineralization significantly postdates the latter event. Veined base metals (Pb‐Zn‐Cu) and Au associated with silicification were coeval with three stages of cleavage formation (D₁, D₂ and D₃) after basin inversion. The Cu‐Au phase of mineralization at the Peak Au mine which was broadly contemporaneous with the culmination of the cleavage‐forming events (D₃) and with the local development of high‐strain zones occurred at 401.5 ± 1.0 Ma (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar on muscovite). This date is essentially coeval with known fossil constraints on the age of basin formation, and indicates that basin inversion and deformation rapidly followed sedimentation. In contrast, replacive Ag‐Pb‐Zn mineralization occurred at 384.0 ± 1.4 Ma (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar on muscovite) during an extended period of relaxation characterized by normal faulting (D₄) which followed the shortening deformation. This mineralization was associated with desilicification and chlorite‐muscovite replacement assemblages which cross‐cut the cleavages, and which may have been broadly contemporaneous with the deposition of part of the Mulga Downs Group which unconformably overlies the Cobar Supergroup. Rhyolite exposed in the core of the Peak Au mine largely contains inherited zircons that range in age from ～430–1500 Ma. A few euhedral zircons have an age of ～430 Ma and this is interpreted as a maximum date for the rock. Zircons from a syn‐D₃ chlorite‐muscovite replacement zone within the deposit have ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages of ～410–650 Ma and are apparently inherited.     

从P-T-t空间变化型式探析大别山北缘地质演化过程

大别山北缘主要由佛子岭群和庐镇关群组成,其处于华北和扬子板块结合处,是探究两大板块耦合过程的关键部位。相对于大别造山带高压-超高压单元的丰硕研究成果,大别山北缘相关的研究较为薄弱,迟滞了对大别造山带演化过程的深入探究。本次研究通过对佛子岭群和庐镇关群详细的野外调查、岩相学、热力学评价和年代学研究,较为详细地阐释了大别山北缘基本变质属性和演化过程。研究表明,佛子岭群主要由各类片岩和部分大理岩构成,并展现了一个巨大的宽缓的"背形"。庐镇关群主体为花岗片麻岩,少部分为斜长角闪岩和石榴黑云母二长片麻岩,其与佛子岭群呈构造并置关系。区域性的峰期变质PT条件估算显示,并结合前人资料,佛子岭群变质温压为T=524～621℃和P=0.59～0.96GPa,庐镇关群变质温压为T=575～625℃和P=0.87～0.96GPa,两者均落入中高压角闪岩相范畴。在空间分布上,自南至北,佛子岭群的温度压力显示了一个逐渐变化趋势,反映了一个由浅至深的俯冲状态型式。锆石U-Pb定年显示,庐镇关群的石榴黑云母二长片麻岩、花岗片麻岩和斜长角闪岩的原岩结晶年龄分别为756±6Ma、758±7Ma、764±6Ma,属于扬子板块北缘产物。佛子岭群的石榴二云母片岩则显示了四个峰值为2.50Ga、0.93Ga、0.85Ga和0.45Ga碎屑锆石年龄,佛子岭群具有华北、扬子板块和古生代岛弧混合物源性,并推测其为一个形成于晚古生代的独立微陆块。综合已有的变质年龄资料分析,佛子岭群记录了345～355Ma晚古生代增生造山和260～270Ma印支期碰撞造山两期事件,这意味着大别造山带可能为一个增生型和碰撞型复合造山带,且该造山带可与西侧的桐柏-红安造山带充分对应。     

华南前汛期盛期中国东部降水异常模态的环流特征及成因分析

根据1958~2011年中国东部(105°E以东)316站逐日降水观测资料及环流逐日再分析资料,利用统计分析、物理量诊断等方法,探讨华南前汛期盛期(5月21日至6月10日)中国东部降水异常模态及对应大气环流特征和可能成因。分析发现,华南前汛期盛期中国东部降水异常表现为两个相互独立的降水模态:第一模态为华南全区一致型,当其时间系数为正(负)时,整个华南降水偏多(少),黄河中游降水偏少(多);第二模态为华南沿海东部型,当其时间系数为正(负)时,华南沿海东部降水偏多(少),而长江中下游降水偏少(多)。研究发现,造成华南前汛期盛期两个降水型的环流特征有明显差异:全区一致型降水主要受东亚高空西风急流南北偏移、副热带高压脊东西偏移及低层南海北部异常风场影响;沿海东部型降水主要由东亚高空西风急流强弱及位置异常、副热带高压强弱变化、低层日本以南西太平洋异常风场导致。此外,两个降水型对应环流异常的成因也各不相同。第一模态中高层环流异常由丝绸之路遥相关型导致,低层风场异常在5月下旬由阿拉伯海向下游传播的风场异常波列引起,在6月上旬则由西太平洋西移的异常反气旋(气旋)造成。第二模态的中高层环流异常先后由极地—欧亚遥相关型、环球遥相关型引起,低层风场异常由高层环流异常的动力作用造成。两降水型均存在整层深厚的垂直运动,但第一模态的垂直运动在高层闭合且对应显著的辐合辐散异常,第二模态则不具有上述特征。     

Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey

Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.     

Summer flows in experimental catchments with different forest covers, Chile

Runoff and peak flows in four experimental catchments with different land uses are analyzed for summer periods. The catchments have a rainy temperate climate with annual precipitations between 2000 and 2500 mm, 70% of which is concentrated in the winter period between May and August. The final harvest of the forest plantation in one of these catchments generated increases in summer runoff. Also, differences between the maximum instantaneous discharge and the flow at the beginning of the storm then almost duplicated those registered in rainfall events of similar magnitude when the catchment was fully forested. Runoff analysis in this catchment is difficult because the two post-harvesting summer periods are much wetter than the two pre-harvesting ones but a double mass analysis shows the effect of harvesting clearly. In a paired catchment study, low cover in one of the two neighbour catchments explains higher direct runoff and base flows although lower maximum instantaneous specific discharge occurred in the less vegetated but larger catchment. Low vegetation cover explains increases in summer flows, although the size, topography, rainfall conditions, road density, extent of affected area and runoff generation processes play an important role in the hydrological effects of different land uses.     

藏西南纳木那尼峰地区第四纪以来的冰川演化

藏西南纳木那尼峰地区第四纪以来经历了多阶段的冰川演化,遗留了各个阶段不同类型的冰川堆积地貌和冰川侵蚀地貌。文章通过对各阶段冰积地貌的分布范围、特征的描述,并根据保存程度确定其相对地貌年龄,初步认为本地区第四纪以来倒数第3次冰期发育了规模最大的冰原冰川,倒数第2次冰期时冰原缩小并逐渐解体,末次冰期以来完全解体为山谷冰川。根据本地区槽谷的形态特征及冰川堆积物的分布,认为本地区末次间冰期前后有一次活跃的构造运动。     

Instability of sand–silt mixtures

The instability of the sand–silt mixtures with different amount of fines contents were studied in this paper. It showed that the slope of the instability lines increases with the increasing relative densities, and it approaches the slope of the failure line (steady state line) at a high relative density. The relationship between the peak stress ratio and the intergranular void ratio can be described by a common curve for all the mixtures with fines contents less than the transitional fines content. There may also exist a unique curve for the relationship between the peak stress ratio and interfine void ratio for the mixtures with fines contents higher than the transitional fines content. If the yield strength ratio is used instead of the peak stress ratio, the relationships can be characterized in the same way.     

近源地震动峰值加速度衰减关系影响因素分析

本文收集了丰富的强震资料, 以峰值加速度为例, 采用简单且体现近场峰值加速度PGA震级饱和和距离饱和特性的衰减模型, 研究了表征震级与距离饱和效应的R0(M)的性质。R0与震级相关, 同时与震源性质、地震波频谱有关。在单个地震的R0(M)的求取中, 由于R0与系数d几乎呈线性关系, 所以要求单个地震R0的值, 必须先根据理论约束确定d的大小。在检验衰减方程的预测效果时, 不仅要判断衰减曲线是否反映了实测资料的平均变化趋势, 而且要判断实测资料是否绝大多数落在84%及16%概率水平的预测曲线之内(之间).