气侯变化背景下黑河上游春季融雪洪水预估研究

气候变暖将导致高山区冰冻圈加剧融化,一方面融水资源时空分布的不确定性增大;另一方面,融水洪水灾害发生的频度和强度也将发生改变。基于气象、水文数据和MODIS积雪覆盖数据,利用融雪径流模型(SRM),对1990—2012年共23年祁连山黑河札马什克控制区融雪期径流进行模拟与验证。结果表明：SRM在该流域具有较高的模拟精度（纳什系数为0.91),可用于分析和预估控制区径流强度变化。为此,采用黑河流域气温、降水降尺度数据,预估了未来气候变化背景下积雪范围变化及不同重现期洪水变化趋势。结果显示,与基准期相比,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,最大积雪范围可减小3%~7%,且随着海拔升高,变化愈剧烈。RCP2.6情景下因气温和降水变化幅度较小,到21世纪末各重现期洪水强度保持在10%以内波动;RCP4.5情景下,各重现期洪水强度最高增大约20%;在RCP8.5情景下,各重现期洪水强度最高可增大超30%。相关分析结果显示,不同重现期洪水径流与气温和降水均具有较强相关性：重现期越长,洪峰与气温的相关性越大;重现期越短,洪峰与降水的相关性越大。通过预估气候变化背景下的融雪性洪水事件强度及重现期变化,有助于有效开展区域洪水风险管理、提高洪水资源的利用价值。     

Incorporating accumulated temperature and algorithm of snow cover calculation into the snowmelt runoff model

An accurate simulation of snowmelt runoff is of much importance in arid alpine regions. Data availability is usually an obstacle to use energy‐based snowmelt models for the snowmelt runoff simulation, and temperature‐based snowmelt models are more appealing in these regions. The snow runoff model is very popular nowadays, especially in the data sparse regions, because only temperature, precipitation and snow cover data are required for inputs to the model. However, this model uses average temperature as index, which cannot reflect the snowmelt simulation in the high altitude band. In this study, the snow runoff model is modified on the basis of accumulated active temperature. Snow cover calculation algorithm is added and is no longer needed as input but output. This makes the model able to simulate long‐time runoff and long‐time snow cover variation in every band. An examination of the improved model in the Manas River basin showed that the model is effective. It can reproduce the behaviour of the hydrology and can reflect the actual snow cover fluctuation. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotope Dilution Determinations of Lu,Hf, Zr,Ta and W,and Hf Isotope Compositions of NIST SRM 610 and 612 Glass Wafers

Isotope dilution determinations of Lu, Hf, Zr, Ta and W are reported for nine test portions (five for W) of NIST SRM 610 and 612 glass wafers. Additionally, all test portions were analysed for their Hf isotope compositions. In general, high field strength elemental (HFSE) distributions in NIST SRM 610 and 612 were reproducible to ～± 1%, except for Zr (± 5%) in NIST SRM 612, and absolute reported concentrations agreed with previously published values, but with higher precision. The slightly worse reproducibility of Zr in NIST SRM 612 compared to other HFSE is interpreted to result from analytical scatter, rather than sample inhomogeneity. The analyses demonstrated elemental homogeneity for both glass wafers for samples of 1–2 mg with respect to the precision of the method, i.e., ± 1% or better. Average Hf isotope compositions for both glass wafers agreed within uncertainty and the weighted average of all determinations yielded a mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio of 0.282111 ± 0.000009 (95% confidence level). However, although mean values for NIST SRM 610 and 612 agreed within analytical limits, NIST SRM 610 test portions showed a tendency of systematically elevated isotope composition of ～ 0.5 _?Hf units when compared to NIST SRM 612, which may indicate a slightly more radiogenic Hf isotope composition of NIST SRM 610. The results of this study suggest that NIST SRM 610 and 612 are valuable calibrators for HFSE in situ analyses within the given uncertainties.     

Zinc Isotopic Compositions of NIST SRM 683 and Whole‐Rock Reference Materials

In this study the homogeneity of the zinc isotopic composition in the NIST SRM 683 reference material was examined by measuring the Zn isotopic signature in microdrilled sample powders from two metal nuggets. Zinc was purified using AG MP‐1M resin and then measured by MC‐ICP‐MS. Instrumental mass bias was corrected using the “sample‐standard bracketing” method and empirical external normalisation with Cu doping. After evaluating the potential effects of varying acid mass fractions and different matrices, high‐precision Zn isotope data were obtained with an intermediate measurement precision better than ± 0.05‰ (δ⁶⁶Zn, 2s) over a period of 5 months. The δ⁶⁶Zn_JMC‐Lyon mean values of eighty‐four and fourteen drilled powders from two nuggets were 0.11 ± 0.02‰ and 0.12 ± 0.02‰, respectively, indicating that NIST SRM 683 is a good isotopic reference material with homogeneous Zn isotopes. The Zn isotopic compositions of seventeen rock reference materials were also determined, and their δ⁶⁶Zn values were in agreement with most previously published data within 2s. The δ⁶⁶Zn values of most of the rock reference materials analysed were in the range 0.22–0.36‰, except for GSP‐2 (1.07 ± 0.06‰, n = 12), NOD‐A‐1 (0.96 ± 0.03‰, n = 6) and NOD‐P‐1 (0.78 ± 0.03‰, n = 6). These comprehensive data should serve as reference values for quality assurance and interlaboratory calibration exercises.     

Refinement of Phosphorus Determination in Quartz by LA‐ICP‐MS through Defining New Reference Material Values

The aim of this study was to improve the quality of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) determination of phosphorus in crystalline quartz. Over the last decade, the Geological Survey of Norway has routinely performed trace element determinations on quartz from both operating and potential quartz deposits by LA‐ICP‐MS. The determined phosphorus concentrations were, with but few exceptions, consistently within the range of 10 to 30 μg g^?1, results that seemed to be both too high and too consistent. The multi‐material calibration curve obtained from a suite of reference materials (NIST SRM 610, 612, 614, 1830, BAM No. 1 amorphous SiO₂ glass) did not define a precise regression line. Published phosphorus concentrations for the reference materials are poorly constrained and the observed dispersions along the multi‐material calibration curve suggest that some of the reference values may be inaccurate. Furthermore, the calibration curve did not pass through the origin of the [(cps ³¹P/cps ³⁰Si) · cone. Si] vs. P concentration diagram; thus, in addition to the uncertainties of the literature values of phosphorus, it is difficult to define the calibration curve. Three reference materials (NIST SRM 614, 1830, synthetic quartz KORTH) were sent for phosphorus accelerator implantation, providing an independent and accurate (± 3%) approach for determining phosphorus concentrations in crystalline quartz. The intrinsic phosphorus concentrations of the three implanted samples plus those for NIST SRM 610 and 612 were determined by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS), yielding new phosphorus values for NIST SRM 610, 612, 614 and 1830. Using these new values resulted in a better defined LA‐ICP‐MS calibration curve. However, the source of the ICP‐MS related background could not be defined, such that it must still be empirically corrected for.     

Calcium Isotopic Composition of Various Reference Materials and Seawater

A compilation of δ^44/40Ca (δ^44/40Ca) data sets of different calcium reference materials is presented, based on measurements in three different laboratories (Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern; Centre de Géochimie de la Surface, Strasbourg; GEOMAR, Kiel) to support the establishment of a calcium isotope reference standard. Samples include a series of international and internal Ca reference materials, including NIST SRM 915a, seawater, two calcium carbonates and a CaF₂ reference sample. The deviations in δ^44/40Ca for selected pairs of reference samples have been defined and are consistent within statistical uncertainties in all three laboratories. Emphasis has been placed on characterising both NIST SRM 915a as an internationally available high purity Ca reference sample and seawater as representative of an important and widely available geological reservoir. The difference between δ^44/40Ca of NIST SRM 915a and seawater is defined as -1.88 O.O4%o (δ^44/42Ca_{NISTSRM915a/Sw}= -0.94 0.07%o). The conversion of values referenced to NIST SRM 915a to seawater can be described by the simplified equation δ^44/40Ca_Sa/Sw=δ^44/40Ca_{Sa/NIST SRM 915a} - 1.88 (δ^44/42Ca_Sa/Sw=δ^44/42Ca_{Sa/NIST SRM 915a} - 0.94). We propose the use of NIST SRM 915a as general Ca isotope reference standard, with seawater being defined as the major reservoir with respect to oceanographic studies.     

Investigation of Thulium and Other Rare Earth Element Mass Fractions in NIST SRM 1632a Bituminous Coal Reference Material by Quadrupole ICP‐MS

Inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry after lithium metaborate fusion and digestion was used to measure the rare earth element (REE) mass fractions of several reference materials including NIST SRM 1632a, a historical bituminous Pennsylvania seam coal. While most of the REE mass fractions measured in this study were consistent with the published consensus data, the measured mass fraction of thulium for NIST SRM 1632a was consistently lower compared with the published data. Chondrite normalisation of the published consensus data for NIST SRM 1632a produced a positive thulium anomaly (Tm = 1.78), which is inconsistent with a terrestrial source of sediment. Normalisation of REE mass fractions collected in this study produced no significant Tm anomaly (Tm = 0.93), which agrees with the sedimentary depositional environment of coal. Therefore, a revised mass fraction of 0.16 mg kg^?1 Tm in NIST SRM 1632a is recommended.     

SIMS Determination of μg g−1-Level Fluorine in Geological Samples and its Concentration in NIST SRM 610

The fluorine concentration in NIST SRM 610 was determined by SIMS to be 295 16 μg g⁻¹ (5.40% relative standard deviation). Accuracy of the measurement was determined from a calibration involving the synthesis of glass calibration samples doped with varying concentrations of fluorine and characterized by electron microprobe analysis and SIMS. The calibration was accurate to about 5%. Multiple analyses of the calibration samples and SRM 610 in three different analytical sessions combine to produce a low relative standard deviation of the mean (0.23% RSD) in the mean fluorine value for SRM 610. Analytical uncertainty in the fluorine value was 5.40% (RSD), originating from a combination of calibration and ion counting uncertainties as determined from multiple analyses. Evaluation of the SIMS technique using the new fluorine value in SRM 610 shows that this element can be determined with a precision and accuracy superior to that of EPMA. Measurements of fluorine in igneous and hydrothermal zircon suggest that F-ligands may have been responsible for Zr transportation in hydrothermal fluids also responsible for W-Au mineralisation. Other applications for low-level fluorine determinations may include melt inclusions and nominally anhydrous mineral phases, particularly mantle phases.     

Pb-Isotope Analyses of USGS Reference Materials

Conventional corrections for thermal ionisation mass spectrometer (TIMS) induced Pb-isotopic fractionation often result in a loss of accuracy because the commonly employed pure Pb reference materials (NIST SRM 981, 982) frequently exhibit markedly different fractionation behaviour to real geological samples. As a result, these SRMs are inappropriate for comparison and/or correction of inter-operator/ laboratory biases. A matrix-matched reference material would be preferable but, as yet, no systematic study has approached this problem. Here we present high quality Pb-isotope ratio determinations, obtained using a double spike procedure, for six USGS reference materials in an attempt to address this deficiency. Our data suggest that most of these rocks could be used as isotopic reference materials comparable, in terms of uncertainty, to the NIST SRMs. However, significant differences in isotopic composition exist between first (e.g. BCR-1) and second (e.g. BCR-2) generation samples. The cause of these differences remains unclear but has significant implications for their use as trace element reference materials.     

New ID-TIMS, ICP-MS and SIMS Data on the Trace Element Composition and Homogeneity of NIST Certified Reference Material SRM 610-611

We present new concentration data for twenty four lithophile trace elements in NIST certified reference material glasses SRM 610-SRM 611 in support of their use in microanalytical techniques. The data were obtained by solution ICP-MS and isotope dilution TIMS analysis of two different sample wafers. An overall assessment of these new results, also taking into account ion probe studies that have been published in the literature, shows that these wafers can be considered to be homogeneous. Therefore, individually analysed wafers are believed to be representative of the entire batch of the SRM 610-611 glasses. Possible exceptions are the alkali metals (and a few volatile or non-lithophile trace elements). The analysed concentrations range between 370 μg g⁻¹ (Cs) and 500 μg g⁻¹ (Sr) and agree well with published values. On the basis of our new data and data recently published in the literature we propose "preferred average" values for the elements studied. These values are, within a few percent, identical to those proposed by other workers.