生态最相关水文指标的优选及其在洞庭湖环境流量估算中的应用

水文改变指标(IHA)能够较为全面地描述水文状况,在评估水文情势改变及其生态系统影响方面具有广泛的应用.尽管该指标体系较为完善,但是数量众多的水文变量仍然存在信息冗余问题.根据洞庭湖城陵矶水文站1955-2014年的径流量数据,采用主成分分析(PCA)筛选了生态最相关水文指标(ERHIs),结合ERHIs改进了用于估算环境流量的变化范围法(RVA),并将其应用在洞庭湖出口的环境流量估算中.基于PCA选取了年最大90日流量、年最小3日流量、年最小流量出现时间、3月流量、6月流量、流量逆转次数和低流量年内平均历时7个变量作为洞庭湖出口的ERHIs.纵向和横向的对比分析都表明选取的ERHIs是合理的.ERHIs不仅有效缓解了IHA的冗余性问题,还有利于抓住最关键的生态水文变量.根据ERHIs改进的RVA方法在设定洞庭湖出口环境流量时,极大地简化原来的众多管理目标,对生态水文研究、水资源管理和生态保护都具有重要的参考价值和借鉴意义.     

夏季金沙江下游水-气界面CO2、CH4通量特征初探

河流是连接大陆和海洋两大碳库的桥梁,在全球碳循环中的作用举足轻重.金沙江作为长江的上游段,对区域碳循环及区域化学风化的影响非常重要.于2015年8月8-18日对金沙江下游水-气界面CO_2与CH_4通量特征进行监测与分析.采用顶空平衡法结合薄边界层模型估算法计算表层水体CO_2与CH_4的分压以及水-气界面的交换通量,并分析环境变量与其之间的相关性.研究发现,金沙江下游表层水体p(CO_2)平均值为2724.84±477.18μatm,表层水体p(CH_4)平均值为59.96±6.74μatm;水-气界面CO_2通量平均值为2.24±0.50 mmol/(m2·h),CH_4通量平均值为0.000163±0.00009 mmol/(m2·h),通量与分压趋势基本保持一致.表层水体p(CO_2)与溶解性无机碳浓度、碱度均呈显著正相关,而p(CH_4)与水温、叶绿素a浓度均呈显著正相关,CO_2通量与p(CO_2)、溶解性无机碳浓度、碱度均呈正相关,CH_4通量与p(CH_4)、风速均呈正相关,其他环境因素对通量的影响不明显,仍需进一步研究.金沙江下游水-气界面CH_4扩散通量较低,而CO_2扩散通量在世界主要河流中属于中等水平.     

Parametric uncertainty assessment of hydrological models: coupling UNEEC-P and a fuzzy general regression neural network

Due to the complicated nature of environmental processes, consideration of uncertainty is an important part of environmental modelling. In this paper, a new variant of the machine learning-based method for residual estimation and parametric model uncertainty is presented. This method is based on the UNEEC-P (UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering – Parameter) method, but instead of multilayer perceptron uses a “fuzzified” version of the general regression neural network (GRNN). Two hydrological models are chosen and the proposed method is used to evaluate their parametric uncertainty. The approach can be classified as a hybrid uncertainty estimation method, and is compared to the group method of data handling (GMDH) and ordinary kriging with linear external drift (OKLED) methods. It is shown that, in terms of inherent complexity, measured by Akaike information criterion (AIC), the proposed fuzzy GRNN method has advantages over other techniques, while its accuracy is comparable. Statistical metrics on verification datasets demonstrate the capability and appropriate efficiency of the proposed method to estimate the uncertainty of environmental models.     

Uncertainty in stage–discharge rating curves: application to Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations data

The purpose of this paper is to determine uncertainty in the gauged range of the stage–gauged discharge relationship for 622 rating curves from 171 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Hydrologic Reference streamgauging Stations (HRS). Water agencies use many methods to establish rating curves. Here we adopt a consistent method across all stations and develop rating curves based on Chebyshev polynomials, and estimate uncertainties from standard regression errors in which residuals from the polynomials are adjusted to ensure they are homoscedastic and normally distributed. Uncertainty in input water level is also taken into account. The median uncertainties in mean response of the available gauged discharge relationship at median daily discharges for the HRS dataset range from +4.5 to ?4.2% (95% confidence band) and for individual gaugings from +29 to ?22% incorporating a water level uncertainty of ±4 mm. The uncertainties estimated are consistent with values estimated in Australia and elsewhere.     

ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE OF THE PERMIAN VOLCANISM IN LUCAOGOU FORMATION IN JIMSAR SAG,JUNGGAR BASIN,NORTHWEST CHINA

The lithological features, the types of organic matter and its occurrence and carbon and oxygen isotopic value were clarified by combining core observation, thin slice authentication, X ray diffraction analysis, kerogen type identification and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis. The characteristic of strata, the distribution of volcanoes of Junggar Basin were also taken into consideration. A comprehensive analysis was conducted to evaluate environmental response of volcanism in Lucaogou formation in Jimsar sag. The results show that rocks is a mixed sedimentation of effusive rock and carbonate rocks, volcanic materials is widely developed in Lucaogou formation and origins from the edge of sag or distant source volcano activity. Organic matter is predominantly unstructural algae and asphaltene. The carbon isotopic value of carbonates ranges between 6.8‰ and 9.7‰ with an average of 8.3‰, featured in high positive excursions, while oxygen isotopic value varies from -11.9‰ to -4.3‰ with an average of -6.2‰. During the period of volcanic activity, the volcanic material released high amounts of nutrient to the lake basin, which is beneficial to the algae and other organic organisms. In the poor oxygen and calm water environments, the organic matter is distributed in the laminar algal and the carbon isotope value is high positive drift. During the intermittent period of volcanic activity, the lake level decreased and the lake bottom water changed to the oxygen-enriched environments. The organic matter is locally enriched or dispersed in local layers, and the carbon isotope values decreased slightly. The frequent volcanic activity promoted the organism boom, which lead carbon isotope value to have high positive characteristics and change trends.     

基于震灾图像维度分析下景观带毁损程度评估的探讨

地震灾害是所有自然灾害中破坏程度最为严重的灾害之一,当景观带遭到地震破坏时,景观带中的规则建筑结构发生改变,景观带毁损程度评估是城市避震减灾体系研究的重点内容,因此对景观带中规则建筑毁损程度研究有重要意义。为深入探讨景观带毁损程度评估的问题,基于震灾图像维度分析下对景观带毁损程度的评估方法进行尝试。根据规则建筑震灾图像质量,按图像维度的变化特征对规则建筑结构的破碎程度进行划分,获取破碎概率分布,根据破碎概率划分最佳阈值,采用分数维方法提取图像维度特征,根据提取到的规则建筑震灾图像维度特征,将毁损的规则建筑空间自相关程度转换成正态分布曲线,进而构建评估模型对规则建筑毁损程度进行评估。针对实例分析,实现基于震灾图像维度分析下景观带毁损程度评估方法并进行了探讨。     

钢筋-沥青隔震层非线性震动特性研究

为了研究钢筋-沥青隔震层的材料与几何非线性震动特性,对钢筋-沥青隔震结构进行了振动台试验,分析了结构在不同加速度幅值输入时的隔震性能。同时,在钢材的应力-应变关系基础上,考虑构件竖向力的二次矩效应,提出了钢筋-沥青隔震层骨架曲线的计算方法,并结合双线型恢复力模型的滞回规则,建立了相应的恢复力模型。利用建立的恢复力模型,编制程序进行了弹塑性时程分析,并与试验结果作对比。结果表明:当钢筋-沥青隔震层的受力钢筋进入弹塑性阶段时,隔震层能够吸收大部分地震能量,显著降低上部结构的地震反应;弹塑性时程分析结果与试验结果吻合较好,由此建立的恢复力模型准确并且适用,可为钢筋-沥青隔震层的工程设计与非线性地震反应分析提供参考。     

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Dust‐Bound Trace Metal Elements around Kuhdasht Watershed Area in Iran

Dust, as a source of trace metal elements, affects the health of society. The spatial and temporal concentrations of dust‐bound trace metals (Cd, Pb, Ni, Zn, Cu, and Mn) in Kuhdasht watershed (456 km²), Lorestan Province, Iran, is investigated. Dust is collected using glass traps placed in ten research stations in the region. The spatial and temporal distribution of dust trace metals are plotted using ARC‐GIS. The highest and the lowest concentrations of Zn (9751150 mg kg^?1), Pb (46.352.9 mg kg^?1), and Cd (2.443.30 mg kg^?1) are obtained in winter, of Ni (98110 mg kg^?1) and Cu in autumn (16.053.5 mg kg^?1), and of Mn in summer (385505 mg kg^?1). The spatial concentrations of dust‐bound trace metals indicate all, except Cu, show a decreasing trend from the mountains toward the plains, similar to that of soil and of dust, except for Zn, which shows higher concentrations in dust than in soil. The potential sources of dust‐bound trace metals and their rate of contamination are also investigated using the enrichment and contamination factors. The major sources of Cd and Zn in the dust of watershed are due to anthropogenic activities or from activities outside the borders.     

火电厂粉煤灰的矿物磁性及其环境意义

火电厂排放的粉煤灰是重要的大气颗粒污染物之一,利用粉煤灰的磁性监测环境污染是新近发展的新手段。应用矿物磁测技术和X射线衍射对浙江省主要电厂排放的粉煤灰的矿物磁性特征和磁性矿物学,以及与重金属元素的关系进行了研究,结果表明粉煤灰具有较高的磁化率（X）、软剩磁（IRM20mT）和饱和等温剩磁（SIRM）值,粉煤灰频率磁化率（Xfd）的平均值为2．5％,磁性矿物以多畴（MD）颗粒存在,粉煤灰的剩磁矫顽力（BCR）在42～53mT之间。矿物测试结合X射线衍射分析表明粉煤灰中的氧化铁矿物以FeO4和Fe2O3-α为主,粉煤灰的磁化率与Fe、Mn、Pb、Zn、Cu、CA含量呈显著线性正相关,相关系数（r）分别是0．924,0．866,0．725,0．756,0．945和0．867,磁化率可作为粉煤灰中重金属元素含量的代用指标。     

太湖流域南区湿地磷状况及其滞留能力

选取太湖流域南区29个典型湿地采样点进行土-水磷素状况调查,并采集杭州西湖茅家埠、湖州德清下渚湖、湖州长兴包漾河等泥样进行静态柱和稳流水槽模拟实验,研究区域湿地底泥含TP 0.169-1.200g/kg,Olsen-P 7.08-67.08mg/kg,最大吸附量为269.5-824.5mg/kg,NaOH+EDTA-P占底泥TP的52.O%±11.6%,且伴随其积累会提高Olsen-P含量,相应上覆水含TP 0.036-0.944mg/L,总颗粒态磷占TP含量的70.9%±13.2%,DRP相对较低,静态柱实验中的DRP初始阶段缓慢下降,之后快速下降并维持在稳定水平,稳流水槽实验的DRP动态表现出准U型曲线特征,经验证,底泥的磷素吸附能力在Langmuir吸附实验及室内模拟实验中表现一致.