Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm–cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize, respectively. Additionally, compared with spring maize, the average utilization efficiencies of thermal resources of winter wheat and summer maize dramatically increased by 9.2%, 12.1% and 12.0%, respectively. The increases in the average utilization efficiencies of precipitation resources of winter wheat and summer maize were 1.78 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹, 2.07 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹ and 1.92 kg hm⁻² mm⁻¹ during 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively. Our findings highlight that adjusting cropping systems can dominantly contribute to utilization efficiency increases of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China in the future.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

兰州市南北两山生态建设效应的遥感监测

利用1999年Landsat ETM+、2005年Landsat TM卫星影像和2009年“环境与灾害监测预报小卫星”影像提取兰州南北两山地区三期土地利用数据,将景观生态学的理论与兰州南北两山环境绿化工程的实际相结合,运用GIS分析、景观指数计算及数理统计等多种方法,对兰州南北两山地区1999—2009年的土地利用与景观格局动态变化进行分析。结果表明,10 a来兰州南北两山的土地利用变化主要表现为林地和建设用地的增加,草地和农田的减少;景观格局趋于破碎化,多样性增大,景观结构趋于多样化和均匀化。驱动力分析表明,人类活动和政策因素是导致该区土地利用和景观格局变化的主要原因。     

标准农田规划空间决策支持模型的研究与实现

在中国工业化与城市化进程加速的背景下,部分地区耕地的质与量难以得到保障,因此迫切需要在平衡粮食安全与经济社会增长的基础上对其做出科学规划,而空间决策支持模型的建立有助于该规划的编制。基于对标准农田规划过程的分析,将模型的概念框架分解为以下三个步骤:①构建标准农田资源评价模型:利用群体层次分析法和土地适应性评价模型评估标准农田资源;②构建标准农田规划备选方案生成模型:采用0￣1整数规划模型生成若干标准农田规划备选方案;③构建标准农田最优规划方案决策模型,采用非确定型决策模型辅助评价选取最优规划方案。文章对概念模型的规范化过程进行详细探讨,最后以浙江省桐庐县石阜镇为实验区,对模型进行实现和初步验证。     

几种网络体系结构中数据包的效率比较分析

介绍了一种新型网络体系结构SUNA，并将它的数据包与其它两种层次型网络体系结构中的数据包进行了组成和效率上的比较分析。说明了在这方面，SUNA的数据处理效率的优势。     

输导通道类型对天然气聚集效率的影响

通过对中国大中型气田天然气输导通道类型及影响因素研究,得到中国大中型气田主要有断裂、断裂与不整合组合、砂体、断裂与砂体组合、不整合与砂体组合和不整合6种输导通道类型。其中以断裂为主,其次是断裂与不整合组合,再次是砂体和断裂与砂体组合,最少为不整合和不整合与砂体组合。它们主要受盆地类型、盆地内构造带类型和源储空间位置关系的影响。由中国大中型气田储量、含气面积和聚集时问,通过求取其天然气聚集效率,把中国大中型气田划分为高效、中效和低效3类气田。通过中国大中型气田天然气聚集效率与输导通道类型之间关系分析,得到聚集时间相对较晚的断裂、砂体和断裂与不整合组合形成的输导通道天然气聚集效率相对较高,有利于快速形成大中型气田。     

云南程海现代沉积物环境记录研究

本文通过对程海沉积物Ｃ、Ｈ、Ｎ等元素含量及其比值的综合分析,辨识了程海沉积物有机质Ｈ／Ｃ及Ｃ／Ｎ值的环境指示意义,发现它们增可作为程海水位波动及区域气候干湿变迁的替代性指标。研究结果表明：程海的水位和区域气候干湿主为化明显以历了两个不同的阶段,但整体上程海水位一直呈下降趋势,反映区域气候整体上向干旱化方向发展。     

桂林毛村岩溶区和非岩溶区牧草养分动态的对比研究

通过进行岩溶区和非岩溶区牧草田间对比试验,测定植被在生长季内( 6- 8月)的养分动态变化,并结合N / P化学计量学的原理和方法,研究了岩溶区牧草的养分限制状况。结果表明: ( 1)在生长季节的6- 8月,岩溶区4种牧草N、P养分浓度都具有显著的随月份的增长而减少的趋势。从岩溶区和非岩溶区所测定的4种牧草养分结果来看,岩溶区牧草的N素平均值为22. 79 mg /g ,非岩溶区牧草的N素略小于岩溶区,为22. 15 mg /g ;岩溶区的P素平均值为6. 03 mg /g ,非岩溶区牧草的P素小于岩溶区,为5. 35 mg /g。( 2)无论是岩溶区还是非岩溶区,牧草的N /P与N 的相关性最大,相当系数都大于0. 6,与非岩溶区不同的是,岩溶区牧草的N /P与Ca 的相关性也很大,而非岩溶区的则较小。( 3)岩溶区牧草植物体Ca、Mg总含量分别是非岩溶区的2和1. 5倍。不同种类的牧草对Ca、Mg 的吸收和累积能力有较大的差异,本研究中的类玉米其钙含量远远小于其它3种牧草的钙含量。      

基于灯光数据的中国县域城镇建设用地产出效率时空演变特征

本文以灯光密度表征建设用地产出效率,采取KDE、ESDA、SDE等方法对中国县域尺度2000-2015年建设用地产出效率的总体特征、时空演变以及方向分布进行分析,研究发现：① 夜间灯光总亮度与建设用地出产出存在较强的相关关系,说明可用灯光总亮度表征建设用地产出,以灯光密度反映建设用地产出效率具有一定的科学性。② 建设用地产出效率东高西低,持续上升;增长速度西高东低,中部居中,但区域间年均增长率最大相差0.56%,整体较为均衡。③ 虽然建设用地产出效率由2000年的0.008单位灯光/km²持续上升至2015年的0.025单位灯光/km²,但其核密度曲线始终处于中低水平且右侧区间不断扩大,说明中国建设用地产出效率总体水平较低,呈现出中低水平俱乐部收敛的特征。④ 建设用地产出效率的全局 Moran's I指数都大于0,建设用地产出效率存在正向空间分布特征,且其局部空间格局变化较小,存在稳中有动,强中有弱,弱中有强的特点。⑤ 方向分布上,建设用地产出效率的方位角始终在72.420^o与81.066^o之间,说明东北-西南方向为建设用地产出效率的主要方向,且标准差椭圆的主轴与辅轴标准差都有所增加,说明在建设用地产出效率的主要方向与次要方向上都发生了分散现象。     

Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.