水环境容量的影响因素及分析研究

本文采用流量级频率分析和统计分析方法,对黄河下游流量及泥沙含量对水环境容量的影响进行了研究分析.分析结果:河流在平滩流量时不仅输沙能力最大[8],而且输运污染物能力也最大,黄河下游水环境容量萎缩是平滩流量降低的必然结果.     

克拉玛依夏季日最高气温与08时 850hPa温度的关系

根据克拉玛依40年气温观测资料,分析克拉玛依夏季日最高气温与08时850hPa温度的关系,寻找预报夏季日最高气温关键因子.     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

Facies Clustering in Turbidite Successions: Case Study from Andaman Flysch Group, Andaman Islands, India

Bed thickness data of two turbidite sections viz., Corbyn's Cove section, South Andaman and Kalipur section, North Andaman those belong to Oligocene Andaman Flysch Group, a forearc submarine fan system, were assessed for facies clustering employing Hurst statistics. Both the sections show Hurst phenomenon and reveal clustering in terms of thick and thin beds. Forcing behind event (bed) depositions in either of the studied sections was assessed statistically and inferred to be non-random and with cyclicities of irregular physical length. The inferred paleogeography through Hurst criteria though worked well for distal fan setting i.e., basin floor sheet sandstones of Corbyn's Cove section, its unequivocal application in proximal fan deposits remains to be tested. The mismatch in paleogeographic interpretation between Hurst test result (lobe-interlobe) and field observation (channel-levee) for the inner fan deposit is explained through differential facies stacking between fans grow in sea-level lowstand and highstand. Lower bed amalgamation, poor sand to mud ratio and subordinately present thick event deposits may be the result of active growth of Andaman Flysch fan in sea level highstand and expressed in lower Hurst K value for inner fan channel-levee association (Kalipur section) compared to many of the channel-levee deposits of lowstand fan systems observed world over.     

Compositional Geometry and Mass Conservation

A geometrical structure is imposed on compositional data by physical and chemical laws, principally mass conservation. Therefore, statistical or mathematical investigation of possible relations between data values and such laws must be consistent with this structure. This demands that geometrical concepts, such as points that specify both mass and composition in linear space, and lines in projective space that specify composition only, be clearly defined and consistent with mass conservation. Mass thus becomes the norm in composition space in place of the Euclidean norm of ordinary space. Coordinate transformations inconsistent with this geometry are accordingly unnatural and misleading. They are also unnecessary because correlation arising from the constant mass presents no unusual difficulty in the analysis of the underlying quadratic form.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.     

Turbulence Statistics Inside and Over Forest: Influence on Footprint Prediction

Observations of wind statistics within and above a Scots pine forest are comparedwith those predicted from an analytical second-order closure model. The roughnesssublayer (RSL) effects, and the influence of stability on similarity functions, arestudied using observations. The commonly accepted forms of similarity functionsdescribe the influence of diabatic effects above the RSL well. According to earlierstudies they are expected also to apply within the RSL. As an exception, the averagewind speed normalised with friction velocity was found to be invariant with stabilityclose to the canopy top under unstable conditions. Lagrangian stochastic trajectorysimulations were used to evaluate the influence of canopy turbulence profiles onfootprint prediction. The main uncertainty was found to arise from parameterisationof the random forcing term in the Lagrangian velocity equation. The influence ofdiabatic conditions was studied, and it was found that thermal stability affectssignificantly the footprint function above the forest canopy, but significantuncertainty exists because of uncertainties in the formulation of stability functions.     

欠压实地层古地层压力恢复的统计模拟法及其在松辽盆地中的应用

恢复烃源岩古地层压力和对于研究其生留排烃过程具有重要意义。Ｎａｋａｙａｍａ［１］等在开展盆地模拟研究时应用Ｒｕｂｅｙ（１９５９）和Ｃｈａｐｍａｎ（１９７）等人提出的数学地质模型对欠压实地层的古地层压力进行恢复。本文通过对松辽盆地欠压实地层的研究发现欠压实因子随地层厚度、埋深、围岩渗透性等地质条件的不同而改变，在此基础上提出了欠压实地层压力恢复的统计模拟法，克服了目前Ｎａｋａｙａｍａ［１］等将地层埋藏过程中的欠压实因子视为常数的不足，从而使计算结果更接近实际。统计模拟法在松辽盆地的应用结果表明了这一方法在实用中的可行性和有效性。