A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

An investigation of sand–dust storm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAA NDVI data

Observations from 560 weather stations in China show that sand–dust storms occur most frequently in April in north China. The region consists of Sub-dry Mid Temperate, Dry Mid Temperate, Sub-dry South Temperate and Dry South Temperate Zones and much of the land surface is desert or semi-desert: it is relatively dry with minimal rainfall and a high annual mean temperature. In most regions of China, the annual mean frequency of sand–dust events decreased sharply between 1980 and 1997 and then increased from 1997 to 2000. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the frequency of sand–dust storms correlates highly with wind speed, which in turn is strongly related to land surface features; on the other hand, a significant correlation between storm events and other atmospheric quantities such as precipitation and temperature was not observed. Accordingly, land surface cover characteristics (vegetation, snowfall and soil texture) may play a significant role in determining the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Empirical Orthogonal Function show that since 1995 surface vegetation cover in large areas of Northern China has significantly deteriorated. Moreover, a high correlation is shown to exist among the annual occurrence of sand–dust storms, surface vegetation cover and snowfall. This suggests that the deterioration of surface vegetation cover may strongly influence the occurrence of sand–dust storms in China. Soils with coarse and medium textures are found to be more associated with sand–dust storms than other soils.     

脉冲型耀斑中阿尔芬波湍流加速3He和重离子机制探讨

基于在^3He丰富事件中，高能^3He和重离子具有相似的幂律谱分布这一观测结果，通过数值求解Fokker-Planck方程，探讨经阿尔芬波湍动速后的离子分布随时间的演化特征。计算结果表明：加速源区的等离子体密度和阿尔芬波湍动能量密度对粒子能谱分布起主要作用，如果取加速源区等离子体密度n=(0.1-1)10^10cm^-3、磁场强度B=50-100Gs、湍动能量密度为0.4-2ergs cm^-3，则在1秒左右的时间内，湍动阿尔芬波能够将^3He和重离子加速到10MeV/nucleon量级，能谱指数为2.0-3.5。理论计算与观测结果基本一致。     

Surface and deep water response to rapid climate changes at the Western Iberian Margin

Rapid climate changes at the onset of the last deglaciation and during Heinrich Event H4 were studied in detail at IMAGES cores MD95-2039 and MD95-2040 from the Western Iberian margin. A major reorganisation of surface water hydrography, benthic foraminiferal community structure, and deepwater isotopic composition commenced already 540 years before the Last Isotopic Maximum (LIM) at 17.43 cal. ka and within 670 years affected all environments. Changes were initiated by meltwater spill in the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic that commenced 100 years before concomitant changes were felt off western Iberia. Benthic foraminiferal associations record the drawdown of deepwater oxygenation during meltwater and subsequent Heinrich Events H1 and H4 with a bloom of dysoxic species. At a water depth of 3380 m, benthic oxygen isotopes depict the influence of brines from sea ice formation during ice-rafting pulses and meltwater spill. The brines conceivably were a source of ventilation and provided oxygen to the deeper water masses. Some if not most of the lower deep water came from the South Atlantic. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages display a multi-centennial, approximately 300-year periodicity of oxygen supply at 2470-m water depth. This pattern suggests a probable influence of atmospheric oscillations on the thermohaline convection with frequencies similar to Holocene climate variations. For Heinrich Events H1 and H4, response times of surface water properties off western Iberia to meltwater injection to the Nordic Seas were extremely short, in the range of a few decades only. The ensuing reduction of deepwater ventilation commenced within 500–600 years after the first onset of meltwater spill. These fast temporal responses lend credence to numerical simulations that indicate ocean–climate responses on similar and even faster time scales.     

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Volcanic Tremor Events Recorded at Sangay Volcano,Ecuador

The assumption that volcanic tremor may be generated by deterministic nonlinear source processes is now supported by a number of studies at different volcanoes worldwide that clearly demonstrate the low-dimensional nature of the phenomenon. We applied methods based on the theory of nonlinear dynamics to volcanic tremor events recorded at Sangay volcano, Ecuador in order to obtain more information regarding the physics of their source mechanism. The data were acquired during 21–26 April 1998 and were recorded using a sampling interval of 125 samples s^–1 by two broadband seismometers installed near the active vent of the volcano. In a previous study Johnson and Lees (2000) classified the signals into three groups: (1) short duration (<1 min) impulses generated by degassing explosions at the vent; (2) extended degassing chugging events with a duration 2–5 min containing well-defined integer overtones (1–5 Hz) and variable higher frequency content; (3) extended degassing events that contain significant energy above 5 Hz. We selected 12 events from groups 2 and 3 for our analysis that had a duration of at least 90 s and high signal-to-noise ratios. The phase space, which describes the evolution of the behavior of a nonlinear system, was reconstructed using the delay embedding theorem suggested by Takens. The delay time used for the reconstruction was chosen after examining the first zero crossing of the autocorrelation function and the first minimum of the Average Mutual Information (AMI) of the data. In most cases it was found that both methods yielded a delay time of 14–18 samples (0.112–0.144 s) for group 2 and 5 samples (0.04 s) for group 3 events. The sufficient embedding dimension was estimated using the false nearest neighbors method which had a value of 4 for events in group 2 and was in the range 5–7 for events in group 3. Based on these embedding parameters it was possible to calculate the correlation dimension of the resulting attractor, as well as the average divergence rate of nearby orbits given by the largest Lyapunov exponent. Events in group 2 exhibited lower values of both the correlation dimension (1.8–2.6) and largest Lyapunov exponent (0.013–0.022) in comparison with the events in group 3 where the values of these quantities were in the range 2.4–3.5 and 0.029–0.043, respectively. Theoretically, a nonlinear oscillation described by the equation ++g(x)=fcost can generate deterministic signals with characteristics similar to those observed in groups 2 and 3 as the values of the parameters ,,f, are drifting, causing instability of orbits in the phase space.     

基于生态事件序列的时态关联规则挖掘

本文分析了时态关联规则挖掘的相关定义,介绍了强时态关联规则挖掘的步骤,设计并实现了基于时间约束的T-Apriori算法。提出了生态事件和生态时间序列的概念,以我国南海大亚湾海域的赤潮现象为例,研究了基于生态事件序列的时态关联规则挖掘问题。     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.     

地下流体数据跟踪事件质量分析

以地下流体数据跟踪分析产出事件为研究对象,总结数据跟踪分析工作现状,从观测系统故障、自然环境、场地环境、人为干扰、地球物理、不明原因事件6个方面,分析2019年地下流体数据跟踪分析存在的问题,并对典型事件进行总结,为地震台站跟踪分析事件记录提供参考。