Geomorphic effectiveness: a linear concept in a non‐linear world

Geomorphic effectiveness has been an influential concept in geomorphology since its introduction by Reds Wolman and John Miller in 1960. It provided a much needed framework to assess the significance of an event by comparing event magnitude to the resultant geomorphic effects. Initially, this concept was applied primarily in river channels, under the linear assumption that geomorphic responses to similarly sized flood events will be consistent. Numerous authors have since attempted to quantify a direct, proportional relationship between event magnitude and different forms of geomorphic response in a variety of geomorphic settings. In doing so, these investigations applied an array of metrics that were difficult to compare across different spatiotemporal scales, and physiographic and geomorphic environments. Critically, the emergence of other geomorphic concepts such as sensitivity, connectivity, thresholds, and recovery has shown that relationships between causes (events) and geomorphic effects (responses) are often complex and non‐linear. This paper disentangles the complex historical development of the geomorphic effectiveness concept and reviews the utility of various metrics for quantifying effectiveness. We propose that total energy (joules) is the most appropriate metric to use for quantifying the magnitude of disturbance events (cause) and volumetric sediment flux associated with landform modification is the most appropriate metric for quantifying geomorphic effects. While both metrics are difficult to quantify, they are the only ones which facilitate comparison across a range of spatiotemporal scales (comparability) in a variety of geomorphic environments (flexibility). The geomorphic effectiveness concept can continue to be useful provided that geomorphologists use flexible and comparable metrics. Today, geomorphologists are better prepared to consider the influence of non‐linear processes on determinations of geomorphic effectiveness, allowing investigators to not only determine if a disturbance event was effective but also to explain why or why not. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter,California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

Small, steep watersheds are prolific sediment sources from which sediment flux is highly sensitive to climatic changes. Storm intensity and frequency are widely expected to increase during the 21st century, and so assessing the response of small, steep watersheds to extreme rainfall is essential to understanding landscape response to climate change. During record winter rainfall in 2016–2017, the San Lorenzo River, coastal California, had nine flow peaks representing 2–10‐year flood magnitudes. By the third flood, fluvial suspended sediment showed a regime shift to greater and coarser sediment supply, coincident with numerous landslides in the watershed. Even with no singular catastrophic flood, these flows exported more than half as much sediment as had a 100‐year flood 35 years earlier, substantially enlarging the nearshore delta. Annual sediment load in 2017 was an order of magnitude greater than during an average‐rainfall year, and 500‐fold greater than in a recent drought. These anomalous sediment inputs are critical to the coastal littoral system, delivering enough sediment, sometimes over only a few days, to maintain beaches for several years. Future projections of megadroughts punctuated by major atmospheric‐river storm activity suggest that interannual sediment‐yield variations will become more extreme than today in the western USA, with potential consequences for coastal management, ecosystems, and water‐storage capacity. The occurrence of two years with major sediment export over the past 35 years that were not associated with extremes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests caution in interpreting climatic signals from marine sedimentary deposits derived from small, steep, coastal watersheds, to avoid misinterpreting the frequencies of those cycles. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Continuous real‐time analysis of the isotopic composition of precipitation during tropical rain events: Insights into tropical convection

To investigate stable isotopic variability of precipitation in Singapore, we continuously analysed the δ‐value of individual rain events from November 2014 to August 2017 using an online system composed of a diffusion sampler coupled to Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer. Over this period, the average value (δ¹⁸O_Avg), the lowest value (δ¹⁸O_Low), and the initial value (δ¹⁸O_Init) varied significantly, ranging from ?0.45 to ?15.54‰, ?0.9 to ?17.65‰, and 0 to ?13.13‰, respectively. All 3 values share similar variability, and events with low δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg values have low δ¹⁸O_Init value. Individual events have limited intraevent variability in δ‐value (Δδ) with the majority having a Δδ below 4‰. Correlation of δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg with δ¹⁸O_Init is much higher than that with Δδ, suggesting that convective activities prior to events have more control over δ‐value than on‐site convective activities. The d‐excess of events also varies considerably in response to the seasonal variation in moisture sources. A 2‐month running mean analysis of δ¹⁸O reveals clear seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal variability is associated with the meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and evolution of the Asian monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a likely driver of interannual variability. During 2015–2016, the strongest El Niño year in recorded history, the majority of events have a δ¹⁸O value higher than the weighted average δ¹⁸O of daily precipitation. δ¹⁸O shows a positive correlation with outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon region, and also with Oceanic Niño Index. During El Niño, the convection centre shifts eastward to the central/eastern Pacific, weakening convective activities in Southeast Asia. Our study shows that precipitation δ‐value contains information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which has a significant implication for the interpretation of water isotope data and understanding of hydrological processes in tropical regions.     

川西理塘断裂带奔戈- 村戈段古地震事件及其非均匀性活动特征

在对青藏高原东南缘地区的理塘左旋走滑活动断裂带野外调查研究中,在其奔戈- 村戈段开挖了两个探槽LT1301和SLT1204。在对两个探槽上所揭示出的古地震事件进行详细划分的基础上,结合所获得的10个OSL年代样品和13个14C年代样品的测试年龄,对理塘断裂带北段的古地震事件发生时代进行了厘定。结果表明2个探槽共揭示出至少4次古地震事件,其中小规模的探槽LT1301仅揭示出1次古地震,可能为发生于公元1729年的历史地震,或是可能发生于距现在950a~1. 0ka之间的一次大地震,由于关键部位年代数据不足,上述两种可能性尚无法明确。较大的探槽SLT1204揭示出包含有探槽LT1301中古地震事件在内的古地震4次,最早的古地震事件I发生于9. 9ka之前,而事件II、III和IV则发生在公元1729年~4. 8kaBP之间,复发间隔为约1. 6ka。川西理塘断裂带北段的古地震研究结果表明,该断裂的大地震复发具有非线性特征,不符合特征地震模式,其中全新世晚期的大地震活动频率明显增大,表明它正处于丛集活动阶段。     

喜马拉雅地区与天山地区地壳强地震的孕震因素探讨

利用哈佛大学GCMT数据中心和前人积累的历史地震资料(1962~2016年M W>4.0地震)以及Crust2.0地壳结构统计分析了喜马拉雅地区、天山地区的地壳区域构造与地震活动间的相关性。此外,利用GFZ地学研究中心提供的静态卫星重力模型GGM03S/EGM2008和地形模型Topo计算了2个地区的各类重力异常场,同时还模拟了不同地壳弹性参数下的重力异常场,结果表明喜马拉雅地区重力异常场在水平、垂直方向的梯度特征远大于天山地区的异常特征,且喜马拉雅地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(6~15km)小于天山地区的有效弹性板厚度Te(20~30km)。最后,利用喜马拉雅地区与天山地区的GPS震间三维形变场约束了断层运动模型,结果显示两者主前缘断裂的断层闭锁深度及应力积累状态存在较大的差异。因此认为,造成青藏高原及邻区的边界地壳区域地震活动性差异的动力学因素,与地壳有效弹性板厚度、孕震断层参数及区域应力积累状态等密切相关。     

The Kellwasser events in the Upper Devonian Frasnian to Famennian transition in the Toc Tat Formation,northern Vietnam

Upper Devonian carbonates of the Toc Tat Formation in the Si Phai Pass area of Dong Van District, northern Vietnam were deposited in carbonate platform, slope, and basin environments. These carbonates yield abundant conodonts indicative of the Palmatolepis nasuta, Pa. linguiformis and Pa. triangularis zones, the Frasnian–Famennian stage boundary being identified by the first occurrence of Pa. triangularis. Two positive carbon isotope excursions are recognized, the lower excursion peaking in the interval of the lower to middle Pa. nasuta Zone, whilst the upper excursion peaks just above the local Frasnian–Famennian boundary. Based on the biostratigraphy, these excursions equate to the Lower and Upper Kellwasser events. Locally, tentaculitoid taxa (Nowakia, Styliolina, Homoctenus, and Metastyliolina?) are abundant in the interval of the Pa. nasuta Zone, but show a drastic decline in abundance before the Lower Kellwasser Event, and only two taxa survived into the Famennian.     

太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报

回顾产生太阳质子事件耀斑的短期预报,讨论短期预报在近期应做的研究．给出以下结论：（１）在６０年代和７０年代,质子事件耀斑的预报有相当大的进展;（２）新预报方法的探索和质子流在日冕与行星际的传播问题,是当前改进短期预报的关键;（３）对实际应用的短期预报工作的改进,可能需要从空间天气预报的角度,研究太阳活动区的分类．     

Late Holocene floodplain incision and alluvial fan formation in the central Grampian Highlands,Scotland: chronology,environment and implications

A section cut across an alluvial fan and the underlying floodplain terrace in the central Grampian Highlands provides an unusually complete record of late Holocene events. At ca. 2.7–2.4 cal kyr BP floodplain aggradation was replaced by net floodplain incision. Pollen evidence and charcoal counts provide no evidence for contemporaneous anthropogenic landscape change, and the timing of the transition suggests that it reflects an increase in high-magnitude erosive flood events following overall climatic deterioration. The overlying fan was deposited by torrential hyperconcentrated flows during three brief storm-generated depositional events at ca. 2.2–2.1, 1.9–1.8 and 0.9–0.7 cal kyr BP, separated and succeeded by prolonged periods of stability and peat accumulation. During these three events, a cumulative total of ca. 6750 m³ of sediment was deposited, probably in no more than a few hours over a timescale of two millennia. These findings imply that proposed links between human activity and the development of alluvial fans or debris cones require reassessment, and that different elements of the Holocene alluvial landscape have responded in different ways to the same climatic inputs. Aggregation of dating evidence relating to aggradation or incision of alluvial landforms at different scales therefore may produce misleading results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Bond cycles’ recorded in terrestrial Pleistocene sediments of southwestern British Columbia,Canada

Recent data from exposures of terrestrial Pleistocene sediments in the Fraser Lowland of southwestern British Columbia reveal at least two ‘Bond cycles’ within Oxygen Isotope Stage 2. The maximum of the Coquitlam Stade coincides with the timing of Heinrich event H2, the Port Moody Interstade with Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) interstade 2, the maximum of the Vashon Stade with H1, and the Fort Langley interval with D–O interstade 1. The Sumas Stade apparently preceded H0 (Younger Dryas) but could have been in response to the same climatic signal. The timing of Sumas advances may be explained by a combination of glacio-isostatic rebound, destabilisation of the ice margin, and rapid movement over a short distance on soft muddy beds of a rising sea floor, thereby leading the timing of North Atlantic events by hundreds of years. In contrast, Coquitlam and Vashon advances were mainly over permeable glaciofluvial sediments and because of this their maxima probably did not precede the timing of H2 and H1. The Port Moody Interstade coincided with the global Last Glacial Maximum, due in part to the moderating effect of moist summer storms in a southward-shifted jet stream that influenced the Fraser Lowland at that time. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.