气候变暖背景下极端气候对青海祁连山水文水资源的影响

利用青海祁连山区极端气候要素和青海湖、哈拉湖及主要河流的水文资料,研究表明：冷夜日数（10%）呈显著减少趋势,暖夜日数（90%）呈显著增加趋势;年大风日数显著减少;年降水量21世纪初增加趋势最为显著并发生突变,降水量增加幅度中西段大于东段;≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年降水日数呈显著增加趋势,进入21世纪后更为明显,而≥ 0.1 mm年降水日数呈减少趋势;年平均大风日数与湖泊水位、河流流量变化呈负相关,大风天气的减少,可以缓解湖面和土壤因蒸发而导致的水分损失,对植被的改善可增加径流的产生,流入湖泊的流量增加;降水量与湖泊水位、河流流量呈正相关,受21世纪降水量增加的影响青海湖水位逐年上升,共上升1.67 m,达到20世纪70年代末的水位,中西部主要河流流量近几年也达到最大值,而东段流量增加不明显;祁连山区≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年平均降水量与湖泊、河流流量变化呈正相关,各量级年降水量对湖泊水位、河流流量的增加贡献显著。     

贺兰山构造带及邻区中-新生代构造事件:来自不整合面和裂变径迹的约束

贺兰山构造带及邻区的构造属性长期以来存在争议,确定该地区中新生代的构造事件及隆升过程是了解这一重要陆内变形带动力学机制的关键所在。本文采用不整合面分析法和低温热年代学方法,综合分析探讨了贺兰山构造带及邻区中新生代的构造事件及其构造演化过程。通过对该地区的野外地质调查,本次在中-新生代地层中由底到顶识别出6个不同类型的不整合面,它们分别是:(1) T_(2-3)/P平行不整合面;(2) J/AnJ角度不整合面-微角度不整合面;(3) K_1/AnK_1高角度不整合面;(4) E_3q/AnE_3;(5) N_1/AnN_1;(6) Q/An Q。在T_3d~3、J_2y和K_1变形前锋,可见与逆冲-褶皱造山带相关的同构造沉积生长地层,其在形态上表现为超覆、削截,在黄草滩等地局部与倒转背斜相伴生。这些不整合和生长地层是构造活动的直接证据。本次研究对采自该地区的12件样品分别进行了磷灰石、锆石裂变径迹测年及热史模拟分析。结果表明,裂变径迹年龄主要分布在4个区间,对应地质时代分别为中侏罗世-晚侏罗世(168～159Ma)、早白垩世末(139～91Ma)、晚白垩世末(79～66Ma)、始新世(59～50Ma),反映出该地区在这4个时期发生了明显的冷却抬升事件,且这4期构造事件与野外观察到的地质特征有很好的地质响应。同时,热史模拟表明该地区整体上经历了晚侏罗世、早白垩世、晚白垩世末-始新世3期快速隆升事件。综合研究表明,该地区主体逆冲褶皱的时间是从中侏罗世开始,早白垩世末构造运动最强烈,新生代又有所活动。     

东天山北部古生代重大构造事件及其对中亚造山带演化的启示：基于1∶5万板房沟幅和小柳沟幅地质调查新证据

本文基于新疆哈密地区1∶5万板房沟幅和小柳沟幅区域地质调查新成果,对东天山北部古生代的重大构造事件以及演化历史进行了系统的梳理。基于下志留统与奥陶系之间角度不整合、下石炭统与泥盆系之间平行不整合以及上石炭统二道沟组与下伏岩系之间的角度不整合的确定,揭示奥陶纪与志留纪之交、泥盆纪与石炭纪之交以及晚石炭世期间存在几次重大构造事件。结合古生代不同时期沉积大地构造背景转换、岩浆活动构造环境转换以及构造变形格式转换的地质新纪录,提出奥陶纪与志留纪之交的造山事件为北部阿尔曼太洋闭合导致准噶尔—吐哈地块与阿尔泰地块碰撞的响应;泥盆纪与早石炭世之间的造陆构造事件可能是北部卡拉麦里洋盆初始汇拢碰撞的响应,其平行不整合以及下伏的志留纪—泥盆纪较稳定环境的沉积序列预示着介于卡拉麦里洋盆与南部北天山洋盆之间的准噶尔—吐哈地块为古亚洲洋盆体系中相对刚性的稳定陆块区,研究区作为准噶尔—吐哈地块的北部被动陆缘受卡拉麦里洋盆汇聚的影响较小;晚石炭世的造山事件则表现为响应卡拉麦里洋盆闭合后周缘前陆盆地的演化,是早石炭世沿卡拉麦里缝合带发生陆块碰撞以来挤压构造作用峰期的产物,其奠定了东天山北部北西-南东向构造基本格局。本文还重新界定莫钦乌拉断裂为北天山构造带(准噶尔—吐哈地块)与东准噶尔构造带的构造-地层分区界线,推断其为卡拉麦里缝合带向南东的延伸,并讨论了早石炭世受控不同构造体制的沉积和岩浆纪录的空间差异性,认为早石炭世北部莫钦乌拉山区域为与北侧卡拉麦里洋盆闭合后周缘挤压前陆盆地的发育过程,而南部博格达—哈尔里克山则总体呈现为响应南侧北天山洋盆闭合后的碰撞后伸展裂谷发育过程。     

开合旋构造体系及其形成机制探讨:兼论板块构造的动力学机制

开合构造总体上可以表述为:地球膨胀为开,收缩为合;垂向上地球物质离心(地心)运动为开,向心运动为合;水平方向上地球物质相背运动为开,相向运动为合。从驱动机制角度,我们把以热力(热能)为主体驱动的上浮物质运动定义为开;将重力(势能)为主体驱动的下沉物质运动定义为合。因此,开与合是一个高度综合的概念,具有广阔的内涵,开合运动是联系一切地质运动和地质科学的纽带。开合运动具有同步统一性,即垂向的开在水平方向也表现为开;垂向开得强烈,水平方向同样开得强烈,反之亦然。地球刚形成时诸多开合构造是无序的,地球的旋转运动统领地球上所有物质、能量、运动和大大小小的各种开合构造于旋转运动中,并将它们调剂到有序状态。简言之开合构造体系是开合旋运动长期作用下形成的不同时期、不同层次、不同级别的开合旋回组成的动态平衡构造体系。本文总结了地球开合旋构造体系物质组成、结构构造特征和规律,建立了开合旋复杂构造体系简要模型。提出平衡体系的形成机制是开合旋运动遵循地球重力均衡准则、最小内能原理(结晶化)、几何淘汰生长(垂直地心生长)和物质均匀化四条自然演化规律,其中重力均衡准则是主导的。由于地质事件(构造运动)在破坏开合旋平衡体系的同时,经常直接或间接向体系内输入新能量,往往使新的旋回比老旋回的结构构造更符合地质演化的自然规律,于是使地球显得更强大而有活力。这一次又一次的地质事件(构造运动)是开合旋构造体系螺旋式向前发展的动因。本文最后用开合构造观点探讨了地球的形成和演化,分析了板块构造运动的动力学过程。     

Geochronology and geochemistry of Permo-Triassic sandstones in eastern Jilin Province (NE China): Implications for final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean

In the eastern part of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) in northeastern (NE) China, scattered outcrops of molasse deposits mark the ending of an orogeny and are crucial for understanding the evolution of the Paleo-Asian Ocean (PAO). However, the timing of tectonic events and the relationships among these strata remain controversial. To better constrain these geologic events, a comprehensive study of the detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of the sandstones of the Kaishantun (KST) Formation and Kedao (KD) Group in eastern Jilin Province, NE China, was conducted. The KST Formation is traditionally considered a molasse deposit. The sandstones display low CIA, PIA and high ICV values and low Th/U and Rb/Sr ratios, which suggest that the rocks were derived from an immature intermediate-felsic igneous source and experienced a simple sedimentary recycling history with relatively weak chemical weathering. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of detrital zircons from two samples of the KST Formation yields ages of 748–252 Ma, suggesting that the KST Formation was deposited between 254.5 Ma and 252 Ma in Late Permian. The zircons were mainly derived from the continental northern part of the North China Craton (NCC). In contrast, the U-Pb dating of detrital zircons from five samples of the KD Group yields ages of 2611–230 Ma, suggesting that the KD samples were deposited in the Early to Middle Triassic (ca. 248–233 Ma). The detrital zircon ages for the KD samples can be divided into groups with peaks at 2.5 Ga, 1.8 Ga, 800–1000 Ma, 500 Ma and 440–360 Ma, which suggest that the samples were derived from bidirectional provenances in the Jiamusi-Khanka Block and the NCC. These new data, combined with previously published results, suggest that at least three orogenic events occurred in central-eastern Jilin Province during the Early Permian (270–262 Ma), Early Triassic (254–248 Ma) and Middle–Late Triassic (242–227 Ma). The final closure of the PAO occurred during 242–227 Ma in the Middle–Late Triassic along the Changchun-Yanji suture zone. The detrital zircon geochronological data clearly record plate convergence and the scissor-like closure of the PAO in the eastern CAOB.     

基于位置点统计的时空异常检测与分析

探讨了位置数据异常分析的一种新思路,给出了面向异常的时空表达模型,建立了基于区域位置点统计的异常检测和分析框架,探寻异常在事件影响下的时空发展趋势和分布特征。通过纽约两个月的出租车出行数据的实验分析验证了框架的有效性,并发现一些有趣的规律,为公共安全、交通管控应急、城市功能区分析等提供指导信息。     

近55 a渭河流域气候变化

利用渭河流域21个气象站点1960-2015年逐日气象资料,应用一元线性趋势分析、Penman-Monteith模型和Morlet小波分析等技术手段分别研究年、月地表湿润指数,并对其进行标准化和气温、降水以及极端干旱事件的变化趋势计算,并分析年内变化规律,以期更好的揭示渭河流域近55 a气候的变化规律。结果表明：（1）渭河流域近55 a的气温总体上在波动中呈小幅增加的趋势,其中20世纪80年代中期到90年代初期气温的增长幅度较大,为气温升高的主要时期,年均降水量和极端干旱频率呈现小幅减少的趋势,下降的主要时期集中在80年代中后期到90年代初期和21世纪初。（2）小波周期分析发现渭河流域极端干旱事件的震荡周期尺度为13～15 a和25～30 a,气温震荡周期的时间尺度为13～15 a和25～30 a,年降水量的小波振荡周期为15～17 a和25～30 a。主震荡周期的时间尺度均为25～30 a,次震荡周期的时间尺度也较为接近,为13～15 a和15～17 a,说明三者的变化规律在一定程度上有一定的相似性。（3）研究区内5个区域的气候变化特征同时存在着一定的差异性,天水-西吉流域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件发生频率的减少幅度和年均气温的增加幅度是5个区域里变化最大的,吴其-状头区域的年均降水量和极端干旱事件的减少频率和年均温度的增加频率是5个区域里变化幅度最小的,但在总体上各区域气候要素变化趋势上是保持一致的。     

Maritime network dynamics before and after international events

Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system (AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.     

Comparison of temperature extremes between Zhongshan Station and Great Wall Station in Antarctica

Although temperature extremes have led to more and more disasters, there are as yet few studies on the extremes and many disagreements on temperature changes in Antarctica. Based on daily minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures(Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) at Great Wall Station(GW) and Zhongshan Station(ZS), we compared the temperature extremes and revealed a strong warming trend in Tmin, a slight warming trend in Tmean, cooling in Tmax, a decreasing trend in the daily temperature range, and the typical characteristic of coreless winter temperature. There are different seasonal variabilities, with the least in summer. The continentality index and seasonality show that the marine air mass has more effect on GW than ZS. Following the terminology of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5), we defined nine indices of temperature extremes, based on the Antarctic geographical environment. Extreme-warm days have decreased, while extreme-warm nights have shown a nonsignificant trend. The number of melting days has increased at GW, while little change at ZS. More importantly, we have found inverse variations in temperature patterns between the two stations, which need further investigation into the dynamics of climate change in Antarctica.     

鲁中地区近35年不同历时降水变化特征

利用鲁中地区8个气象站1980-2014年逐日降水资料,分析不同持续时间不同强度降水的时空变化规律。结果表明：鲁中地区近35年无特大暴雨发生,降水发生频率随降水强度和持续时间的增加而减少,降水频率与降水强度的变化规律基本一致。1日降水除小雨外,其他强度降水发生次数均呈增加趋势,最多发生在7月,大暴雨的降水强度除沂源外,其他地区呈增加趋势,暴雨降水强度在中部平原和南部山区呈增加趋势,除大暴雨外,其他不同强度降水年均发生次数主要空间变化规律一致,但在第二特征向量上存在差异;持续2日降水除暴雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势外,其他强度降水均呈减少趋势,暴雨的降水强度除中西部平原外,其他地区呈增加趋势,大雨和小雨最多出现在8月,暴雨和中雨出现在7月,暴雨中北部平原最多,大雨东部平原最多,中雨、小雨山区最多;持续3日中雨和小雨年均发生次数随时间呈增加趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈增加趋势,最多出现在8月,山区最多;持续4日、5日小雨年均发生次数随时间呈减少趋势,降水强度在多数地区呈减少趋势,最多分别出现在8月、9月,空间分布均匀。