The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

Evaluation of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken todetermine the seismic hazard of Lebanon. The seismic hazard evaluation wasconducted using probabilistic methods of hazard analysis. Potential sourcesof seismic activities that affect Lebanon were identified and the earthquakerecurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumentalseismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken toevaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. The sensitivityof the results to different assumptions regarding the seismic sources in theLebanese segment and choice of the attenuation relationship wasevaluated. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed.     

New Early Cretaceous paleomagnetic results from Qilian orogenic belt and its tectonic implications

Lower Cretaceous red sedimentary rocks from the depositional basin of East Qilian fold belt have been collected for a paleomagnetic study. Stepwise thermal demagnetization reveals two or three components of magnetization from dark red sandstones. Low-temperature magnetic component is consistent with the present Earth Field direction in geographic coordinates. High-temperature magnetic components are mainly carried by hematite. The mean pole of 19 sites for high-temperature magnetic components after tilt-correction is λ=62.2°N, φ=193.4°E, A95=3.2°, and it passes fold tests at 99% confidence level and reversal tests at 95% confidence level. The paleopole is insignificantly different from that of Halim et al. (1998) from the same sampling area at the 95% confidence level. Compared with paleomagnetic results for North China, South China, and Eurasia, our results suggest that no significant relative latitudinal displacement has taken place between Lanzhou region and these blocks since Cretaceous time. Remarkably, the pole of Lanzhou shows a 20° clockwise rotation with respect to those of North China, South China, and Eurasia. Geological information indicates that the crustal shortening in the western part of Qilian is greater than that in eastern part. In this case, the clockwise rotation of sampling area was related to India/Eurasia collision, and this collision resulted in a left-lateral strike-slip motion of the Altun fault in north Tibetan Plateau after the Cretaceous.     

西安翠华山山崩地质遗迹资源保护

文论述了西安翠华山山崩地质遗迹资源保护的目的，进行了保护分区，将其分为核心保护区、缓冲区和视域保护区三个区，重点分析了核心保护区的保护现状，并在此基础上提出了相应的保护内容和对策，以实现山崩地质遗迹资源的可持续利用和发展。     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.     

Book Reviews

Books Reviewed Colbert C. Held, Middle East Patterns: Places, People, and Politics Barbara A. Weightman, Dragons and Tigers: A Geography of South, East, and Southeast Asia Henry J. Bruman, Alcohol in Ancient Mexico Brian W. Blouet, Geopolitics and Globalization in the Twentieth Century M. A. B. Siddique (ed.), International Migration into the 21st Century: Essays in Honour of Reginald Appleyard Michael R. Haines and Richard H. Steckel (eds.), A Population History of North America Emilio Moran, Human Adaptability: An Introduction to Ecological Anthropology Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era Susan B. Marriott and Jan Alexander (eds.), Floodplains: Interdisciplinary Approaches William S.Logan, Hanoi: Biography of a City Alex Krieger and David Cobb (eds.) with Amy Turner, Mapping Boston Eric Sandweiss, St. Louis: The Evolution of an American Urban Landscape Carl Abbott, Greater Portland: Urban Life and Landscape in the Pacific Northwest Arthur D. Murphy, Colleen Blanchard and Jennifer A. Hill (eds.), Latino Workers in the Contemporary South Yanek Mieczkowski, The Routledge Historical Atlas of Presidential Elections     

海南省五指山土壤中的重金属元素含量

海南省地处热带地区，山地面积占25．4％，五指山是海南山地的核心，也是海南最高峰，从下而上依次分布着砖红壤、赤红壤、黄壤、灌丛草甸土。五指山土壤普遍遍缺，而Zn、Ni、Pb、Cd、Cr、Co含量属正常值。在成土过程中，Cd有一定积累，其他元素有明显淋溶。在自下而上的垂直带谱中，Zn、Co含量呈现递减，Cd则相反，Ni、Pb、Cu、Cr含量呈现波浪式变化。气候因素是影响五指山土壤重金属元素含量及分布的主导因素。     

云南省防洪空间信息系统构建

通过讨论应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术，立足现实对相关空间数据进行集成和整合处理，实现防洪空间信息的数字化、标准化，为优化防汛指挥工作手段提供基础。系统数据库饭知不同比例尺精度的空间基础数据以满足不同目的的需求，对相关水文、防洪设施、全省洪涝风险和重点区风险图、土地利用等图件进行系统整合。系统有较强的管理功能和分析功能，可提高云南省防洪空间信息的共享度和系统有效管理，为政府统一组织和指挥抗洪救灾提供重要的辅助决策支持手段。