吉林省江源县地质灾害发育特征及防治对策

江源县位于吉林省东南部,处于长白山西麓,行政管辖隶属于吉林省白山市,具有丰富的矿产和旅游资源。近年来,由于经济的发展和人类工程活动的增强,加剧了区内地质灾害的形成,地质灾害对当地的经济发展和人民生命财产安全造成损失和潜在威胁。本文对该县的地质环境作了详尽的阐述,在此基础上对研究区内的泥石流、滑坡、地面塌陷、不稳定斜坡等地质灾害的发育特征和形成条件作了全面的分析研究,总结出它们的发展规律,同时对该县进行了地质灾害经济损失现状评估和预测评估,最后结合当地经济条件与地质灾害现状,给出了较为切实可行的地质灾害防治对策。     

基于层次分析法的可拓学理论在山区公路泥石流危险性评价中的应用

基于可拓工程方法,在物元模型理论的基础上建立了公路泥石流危险性评价的物元模型,并采用层次分析法计算物元模型中各评价指标的权系数。通过实际公路泥石流危险性等级的关联度计算,对四川地区雅泸高速公路的5条泥石流沟进行了评价,得出与实际相符合的结论。并与其他评价方法相比表明：该方法不仅可以应用在泥石流危险性评价上,而且所得的结果会更加合理,具有较好的适用性。     

焦作-郑州天然气输气管道工程地质灾害防治措施及防治建议

焦作-郑州天然气输气管道是较重要建设项目,输气管道起自焦作市博爱县磨头镇,南止郑州市惠济区古荥镇,该输气管道沿线地质环境条件复杂程度为简单-中等。地质灾害类型主要为崩塌、地裂缝、地面不均匀沉陷,黄土湿陷和沙土液化等地质灾害。工程建设有引发和加剧崩塌灾害的可能性,有遭受地质灾害的危险性。工程建设过程中应针对不同的灾害类型采取适当的预防或治理措施。     

The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows

 Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km³ of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain, the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system, and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate further than their radially spreading counterparts. As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from the vent, will develop. Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass fluxes of 10⁹–10¹⁰ kg/s over periods of 10³–10⁵ s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations, the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km. Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996     

武夷山南段前寒武纪浅变质岩系的划分与时代

武夷山南段前寒武纪地层分布较广。从下至上分为楼子坝群、丁屋岭组、南岩组和黄连组。过去因缺乏可靠的微古植物化石证据和同位素地质年龄资料,对其时代归属分歧颇大。为此,作者对该区的前寒武系进行了系统的微古植物取样、分析,参考最近的Nd同位素模式年龄资料,认为:楼子坝群为前震旦系,大致相当于蓟县系与青白口系;丁屋岭组为下震旦统;南岩组和黄连组为上震旦统;江西东南部的"下寒武统炭质板岩"应归入老虎塘组,属上震旦统。     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

新疆第四纪盐类矿产的形成和控制因素——兼论“高山深盆”成盐模式

根据袁见齐教授“高山深盆”成盐模式,探讨新疆天山对第四纪盐类矿床的形成和控制作用,阐述了天山地貌、气候、水文特征与盐类矿产的分布规律和特征。认为“高山深盆”并非一定是四周环山的深盆,可以是某一高山与其间深盆或两侧盆地的有机组合。高山的屏障作用造成了垂直的气候分带,在潮湿多雨的山区利于成盐组份的析出并迁移到干旱少雨的闭流深盆中,形成盐类矿床。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

安徽大别山区5—8月不同阶段降水时空分布特征

利用2008—2016年中国区域CMORPH（Climate Prediction Center Morphing）多卫星降水数据相融合的、分辨率为0.1°×0.1°的逐时降水量数据集，将每年5—8月分为梅雨前（5月1日至入梅前1日）、梅雨期（入梅当日至出梅当日）和梅雨后（出梅次日至8月31日），分析了大别山区梅雨季节降水的时间和空间演变趋势。大别山区梅雨期间年平均降水量360.3 mm，梅雨前平均降水量279.7 mm，梅雨后平均降水量287.0 mm。梅雨季节主要存在3个降水大值区：山区北侧中段、主峰东南侧和西南侧。从日变化情况来看，梅雨期降水日变化呈现双峰特征，出现峰值的时间分别是09:00、16:00。梅雨前、梅雨后降水日变化呈单峰特征。强降水出现频率的空间分布大值区也随着梅雨前—梅雨期—梅雨后的时间变化逐渐北抬。