1980 - 2015年南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于地形图和Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像等数据, 利用目视解译和波段比值法提取1980年、 2000年和2015年南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川空间分布数据, 分析研究区近35年冰川变化, 探讨冰川对气候变化的响应。结果表明： 1980 - 2015年, 南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川面积持续减小并呈加速退缩的趋势, 近35年共减少了（75.23±4.67） km², 占1980年冰川总面积的（25.2±1.6）%, 年平均面积减小率为（0.73±0.05）%。研究区东南坡冰川面积变化速率大于西北坡, 在不同流域、 海拔及朝向上, 冰川变化差异较大。南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川表碛十分发育, 表碛覆盖冰川面积变化率小于裸露冰川, 表碛覆盖对冰川消融具有抑制作用。南迦巴瓦峰地区在气温显著升高的背景下, 虽然降水量有所增加, 但冰川对气温更加敏感, 因气温升高引起冰川消融所带来的物质损失超过降水增加对冰川的补给, 导致南迦巴瓦峰地区冰川普遍萎缩。     

Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

1990-2019年贡嘎山地区典型冰川表碛覆盖变化及其空间差异

表碛覆盖型冰川是中国西部较为常见的冰川类型。表碛层存在于大气—冰川冰界面,强烈影响大气圈与冰冻圈之间的热交换。表碛厚度的空间异质性可极大地改变冰川的消融率和物质平衡过程,进而影响冰川径流过程和下游水资源。基于Landsat TM/TIRS数据,运用能量平衡方程反演了贡嘎山地区冰川表碛厚度,研究了贡嘎山地区冰川在1990—2019年间表碛覆盖范围及厚度变化情况,同时对比了东西坡差异。结果表明：① 贡嘎山地区冰川表碛扩张总面积达43.824 km²。其中,海螺沟冰川扩张2.606 km²、磨子沟冰川1.959 km²、燕子沟冰川1.243 km²、大贡巴冰川0.896 km²、小贡巴冰川0.509 km²、南门关沟冰川2.264 km²,年均扩张率分别为3.2%、11.1%、1.5%、0.9%、1.0%和6.5%;② 海螺沟冰川、磨子沟冰川、燕子沟冰川、大贡巴冰川、小贡巴冰川、南门关沟冰川表碛平均增厚分别为5.2 cm、3.1 cm、3.7 cm、6.8 cm、7.3 cm和13.1 cm;③ 西坡冰川表碛覆盖度高,表碛覆盖年均扩张率低,冰川末端退缩量小;东坡冰川表碛覆盖年均扩张率高,但表碛覆盖度总体低于西坡,冰川末端退缩量大。     

Fluvial sediment transport and deposition following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo

The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo generated extreme sediment yields from watersheds heavily impacted by pyroclastic flows. Bedload sampling in the Pasig–Potrero River, one of the most heavily impacted rivers, revealed negligible critical shear stress and very high transport rates that reflected an essentially unlimited sediment supply and the enhanced mobility of particles moving over a smooth, fine-grained bed. Dimensionless bedload transport rates in the Pasig–Potrero River differed substantially from those previously reported for rivers in temperate regions for the same dimensionless shear stress, but were similar to rates identified in rivers on other volcanoes and ephemeral streams in arid environments. The similarity between volcanically disturbed and arid rivers appears to arise from the lack of an armored bed surface due to very high relative sediment supply; in arid rivers, this is attributed to a flashy hydrograph, whereas volcanically disturbed rivers lack armoring due to sustained high rates of sediment delivery. This work suggests that the increases in sediment supply accompanying massive disturbance induce morphologic and hydrologic changes that temporarily enhance transport efficiency until the watershed recovers and sediment supply is reduced.     

珠穆朗玛峰北坡东绒布冰川成冰作用的新认识

冰川成冰作用的研究对于选择冰芯钻取点具有重要的科学意义。前人对珠穆朗玛峰北坡冰川成冰作用的研究,由于缺少高海拔区域的实测资料而具有一定的局限性。文章通过1998年东绒布冰川垭口处(6 500 m a. s. l.)11 m冰芯和海拔6 450 m处20 m冰芯剖面的成冰作用过程研究,认识到由于水、热条件的逐年波动,冰川成冰作用也处于变化之中。珠穆朗玛峰北坡东绒布冰川高海拔区域,在一定的水、热条件下(如气温较低和降水量较大等),再冻结-重结晶作用依然占主导地位,该成冰作用至少在垭口部位是有分布的。而一般在气温较高或降水量较少等条件下,冰川的成冰作用则以冷渗浸-重结晶作用为主。     

珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶元素成分的监测及分析

对珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶化学民分进行了观测和分析。初步分析结果表明，珠峰地区大气气溶胶以Al,Ca,Si,K,Fe等地壳元素为主，地壳元素占总元素浓度的82％以上。S,Pb等与人类活动影响有关的污染元素含量很低。元素S浓度为91．64ng.m^-3，元素Pb浓度仅为2．93ng.m^-3，接近于格陵兰地区的浓度，从气富集因子来看，来自地壳成分元素的富集因子要小于北京地区。而As,Pb等与人类活动有关的气溶胶元素的富集因子也比北京地区低得多。研究表明，人类活动对珠峰地区的影响很小。     

Permian

Summary Late in the Carboniferous Period or early in the Permian ice covered much of Tasmania (Fig. 30b). The sub‐Permian surface had a relief of several thousand feet with particularly low areas near Wynyard and Point Hibbs and high areas near Cradle Mountain, Devonport, Deloraine, Wylds Crag and Ida Bay and a peninsula in eastern Tasmania (Fig. 30a).

The glaciers from an ice centre north‐west of Zeehan diverged about a higher area near Cradle Mountain. One tongue occupied a deep valley near Wynyard and a lobe fanned out south of the high area to occupy parts of northern and central Tasmania and to override some parts of the east coast peninsula.

West of Maydena the ice scoured shell beds and dumped the shell fragments in the till on the Styx Range. Thus the base of the ice may well have been below sea‐level. Carey and Ahmad (1961) suggested that the Wynyard Tillite was deposited below a “wet‐base” glacier. David (1908, p. 278) suggested deposition from “land ice in the form of a piedmont or of an ice‐sheet” but that near Wynyard the ice came down very close to, if not actually to, sea‐level. The extent of the glaciation and the distribution of erratics of western Tasmanian origin in eastern Tasmania make it seem likely that either a piedmont glacier or an ice‐sheet rather than mountain glaciation was involved.

Following retreat of the glaciers the sea covered the till, probably to a considerable depth, eustatic rise of sea‐level being much more rapid than isostatic readjustment.

The Quamby Group is underlain by or passes laterally into thin conglomerates and sandstones in a number of places, but most of the group appears to be of deep water, partially barred basin origin. Marine oil shales accumulated close to islands. Shallowing of the sea during deposition of the upper part of the Quamby Group seems to be indicated by the fauna and increasing sandiness in marginal areas. Instability in the source areas is shown by the presence of turbidity current deposits in the higher parts of the group. The Golden Valley Group, of Upper Sakmarian and perhaps Lower Artinskian age, was deposited in a shallower sea than the Quamby Group but the deposits are more extensive along the east coast peninsula and on the flanks of the Cradle Mountain island. This anomaly may be explained if the rate of deposition exceeded the rate of rise of sea‐level. The sediments of the Golden Valley Group became finer‐grained upwards in most parts of Tasmania probably indicating reduction in relief of the source area. Some instability is indicated by turbidity current deposits. Uplift of source areas in north‐western Tasmania early in Artinskian time resulted in the spreading of sand over the shallow silts of the Golden Valley Group onto the east coast peninsula and over the Cradle Mountain area. The sand formed a wide coastal plain containing lakes and swamps and the sea was restricted to a small gulf in southern Tasmania during the deposition of the lower part of the Mersey Group. During deposition of this group the sea rose once to form a long, narrow gulf extending as far north as Port Sorell and then retreated. This inundation resulted in the development of two cyclothems in many parts of Tasmania.

A little later in Lower Artinskian time the sea rose and covered most of Tasmania except perhaps the far north‐west. This wide transgression probably resulted from down‐warping as an eustatic rise in sea‐level would be expected to produce thickest deposition over the old gulf in southern Tasmania and along the axis of Mersey Group inundation but the zone of thickest Cascades Group crosses these at a high angle. During deposition of the Cascades Group marine life became very abundant in the shallow sea over which a few icebergs floated. During the Artinskian tectonic instability increased as shown by the increasing number of turbidites in the upper part of the Grange Mudstone and the lower part of the Malbina Formation. The sea became less extensive and the source areas in north‐western and north‐eastern Tasmania were uplifted. The zone of thickest deposition of the Malbina Formation trended north‐north‐westerly. The rapid succession of turbidity currents killed the benthonic fauna and it was only during deposition of the upper part of the formation possibly in Lower Kungurian time that life became abundant again in the Hobart area. The sea spread a little over the east coast peninsula and further instability is recorded in the Risdon Sandstone. The resulting turbidity currents killed the benthonic fauna and it never became properly established again in any part of Tasmania during the Permian. A wide shallow sea covered much of Tasmania and was bordered by low source areas during deposition of the Ferntree Group. The axis of greatest thickness had an almost meridional trend and lay west of that of the Malbina Formation. Late in the Permian, probably in the Tartarian, rejuvenation of the source areas, particularly in western Tasmania, and withdrawal of the sea, resulted in deposition of sands and carbonaceous silts of the Cygnet Coal Measures. The zone of greatest thickness was almost parallel to but west of that of the Ferntree Group.

The thickness of the Permian System and the sheet‐like character of many of the members and formations suggest shelf rather than geosynclinal deposition. The average rate of deposition was of the order of 1 ft. in ten thousand years (about 0–003 mm./annum). However, the sediments differ markedly from those on stable shelves in that many of them are poorly‐sorted. Some of the poor sorting may be attributed to deposition from drifting icebergs but some is due to tectonic instability.

Uplift and downwarping and movement of zones of maximum thickness have been deduced above and it is probable that the tectonic instability started as early as Lower Artinskian and it may have started during Sakmarian (upper part of Quamby Group). Maximum instability seems to have occurred in Middle or Upper Artinskian time (Malbina Formation) and it is probably significant that this was a time of considerable orogenic movement in New South Wales (part of the Hunter‐Bowen Orogeny, Osborne, 1950). Progressive westward movement of zones of maximum thickness of units in Upper Permian time seems to have occurred and this again is reminiscent of the situation at the time in New South Wales (Voisey, 1959, p. 201) but seems to have started later. Uplift and development of a major synclinal structure with a trend approximately north‐north‐westerly occurred late in Permian time.     

景区依托型旅游村与核心景区耦合发展研究

旅游村作为新型乡村旅游地,是国家乡村旅游＂百千万工程＂中最基础的组成部分。从景区依托型旅游村的视角出发,选取黄山山岔村与黄山风景区作为案例地,运用多元回归分析方法,对两者之间耦合发展进行研究。结果显示：（1）黄山风景区发展大力提升了山岔村社会经济文化水平;（2）黄山风景区发展对村落环境影响较小;（3）黄山风景区发展对村落社区参与有影响,但并不显著。从景区与村落的发展特征出发,较为系统地揭示景区依托型旅游村与核心景区耦合发展的内在动力源于位差潜势、催化潜势、管理潜势和多稳定潜势,这些形成了景村耦合发展的演化机制。在此基础上,提出了景村耦合发展的4条途径。     

Pre- and post-drill comparison of the Mount Elbert gas hydrate prospect, Alaska North Slope

In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) completed a detailed analysis and interpretation of available 2-D and 3-D seismic data, along with seismic modeling and correlation with specially processed downhole well log data for identifying potential gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope of Alaska. A methodology was developed for identifying sub-permafrost gas hydrate prospects within the gas hydrate stability zone in the Milne Point area. The study revealed a total of 14 gas hydrate prospects in this area.In order to validate the gas hydrate prospecting protocol of the USGS and to acquire critical reservoir data needed to develop a longer-term production testing program, a stratigraphic test well was drilled at the Mount Elbert prospect in the Milne Point area in early 2007. The drilling confirmed the presence of two prominent gas-hydrate-bearing units in the Mount Elbert prospect, and high quality well logs and core data were acquired. The post-drill results indicate pre-drill predictions of the reservoir thickness and the gas-hydrate saturations based on seismic and existing well data were 90% accurate for the upper unit (hydrate unit D) and 70% accurate for the lower unit (hydrate unit C), confirming the validity of the USGS approach to gas hydrate prospecting. The Mount Elbert prospect is the first gas hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska identified primarily on the basis of seismic attribute analysis and specially processed downhole log data. Post-drill well log data enabled a better constraint of the elastic model and the development of an improved approach to the gas hydrate prospecting using seismic attributes.