Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.     

Pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive conditions in the Black Butte, California dacite: Insight into crystallization kinetics in a silicic magma system

A series of experiments and petrographic analyses have been run to determine the pre-eruption phase equilibria and ascent dynamics of dacitic lavas composing Black Butte, a dome complex on the flank of Mount Shasta, California. Major and trace element analyses indicate that the Black Butte magma shared a common parent with contemporaneously erupted magmas at the Shasta summit. The Black Butte lava phenocryst phase assemblage (20 v.%) consists of amphibole, plagioclase (core An_77.5), and Fe–Ti oxides in a fine-grained (< 0.5 mm) groundmass of plagioclase, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole, and cristobalite. The phenocryst assemblage and crystal compositions are reproduced experimentally between 890 °C and 910 °C, ≥ 300 MPa, X_H2O = 1, and oxygen fugacity = NNO + 1. This study has quantified the extent of three crystallization processes occurring in the Black Butte dacite that can be used to discern ascent processes. Magma ascent rate was quantified using the widths of amphibole breakdown rims in natural samples, using an experimental calibration of rim development in a similar magma at relevant conditions. The majority of rims are 34 ± 10 μm thick, suggesting a time-integrated magma ascent rate of 0.004–0.006 m/s among all four dome lobes. This is comparable to values for effusive samples from the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and slightly faster than those estimated at Montserrat. A gap between the compositions of plagioclase phenocryst cores and microlites suggests that while phenocryst growth was continuous throughout ascent, microlite formation did not occur until significantly into ascent. The duration of crystallization is estimated using the magma reservoir depth and ascent rate, as determined from phase equilibria and amphibole rim widths, respectively. Textural analysis of the natural plagioclase crystals yields maximum growth rates of plagioclase phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites of 8.7 × 10^− 8 and 2.5 × 10^− 8 mm/s, respectively. These rates are comparable to values determined from time-sequenced samples of dacite erupted effusively from Mount St. Helens during 1980 and indicate that syneruptive crystallization processes were important during the Black Butte eruptive cycle.     

生态旅游胜地—九顶山

对九顶山的生物景观，水体景观，地质遗迹景观，天然气景观和人文景观等方面进行了详尽的描述，并划分出平水河景区，云湖景区，楠木沟景区，紫岩山景区，白云山景区，仙女洞景区和天池景区等七个景区，从科学性，美学性，文化性以及区位条件和功能方面对景观进行了评述。进而提出了开发的初步构想。     

Mascali,Mount Etna Region Sicily: An Example of Fascist Planning During the 1928 Eruption and Its Continuing Legacy

The 1928 eruption of Etna, Sicily, although the largest such event this century, has not been studied in detail. In this paper the nature of the eruption, the destruction it caused – including the complete devastation of the town of Mascali (pre-eruption population 2,000) – and emergency responses of the authorities to it are reviewed in the context of fascist politics and planning priorities. It is contended that, although at one level the response to the 1928 eruption was successful, at another fascism merely continued and enhanced a reactive, propitiatory approach to hazard mitigation. We argue that this legacy was not successfully overcome until the middle of the nineteen eighties. Finally contemporary Italian moves towards a more proactive approach to disaster planning, both generally and in the context of Etna, are discussed.     

The 1999 and 2000 eruptions of Mount Cameroon: eruption behaviour and petrochemistry of lava

Mount Cameroon (4,095 m high and with a volume of ~1,200 km³) is one of the most active volcanoes in Africa, having erupted seven times in the last 100 years. This stratovolcano of basanite and hawaiite lavas has an elliptical shape, with over a hundred cones around its flanks and summit region aligned parallel to its NE--SW-trending long axis. The 1999 (28 March–22 April) eruption was restricted to two sites: ~2,650 m (site 1) and ~1,500 m (site 2). Similarly, in the eruption in 2000 (28 May–19 June), activity occurred at two sites: ~4,095 m (site 1) and ~3,300 m (site 2). During both eruptions, the higher vents were more explosive, with strombolian activity, while the lower vents were more effusive. Accordingly, most of the lava (~8×10⁷ m³ in 1999 and ~6×10⁶ m³ in 2000) was emitted from the lower sites. The 1999–2000 lavas are predominantly basanites with low Ni (5–79 ppm), Cr (40–161 ppm) and mg numbers (34–40). Olivine (Fo_77–85, phenocrysts and Fo_68–72, microlites), clinopyroxene (Wo₄₇En₄₁Fs₁₀ to Wo₅₁En₃₄Fs₁₅), plagioclase (An_49–67) and titanomagnetite are the principal phenocryst and groundmass phases. The lavas contain xenocrysts of olivine and clinopyroxene, which are interpreted as fragments of intrusive rocks disrupted by magma ascent. Major and trace element characteristics point to early fractionation of olivine. The clinopyroxenes (Al₂O₃ 1.36–7.83 wt%) have high Al^iv/Al^vi ratios (1.3–1.8) and are rich in TiO₂, characteristics typical of low pressure clinopyroxenes. Geochemical differences between the 1999–2000 lavas and those from previous eruptions, such as higher Nb/Zr of the former, suggest that different eruptions discharged magmas that evolved differently in space and time. Geophysical and petrological data indicate that these fractionated magmas originated just below the geophysical Moho (at 20–22 km) in the lithospheric mantle. During ascent, the magmas disrupted intrusions and earlier magma pockets. The main ascent path is below the summit, where newly arrived magma degasses. Degassed magma simultaneously intrudes the flank rift zones where most lava is extruded.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Was a dacite dome implicated in the 9,500 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b.p.</Emphasis> collapse of Mt Ruapehu? A palaeomagnetic investigation

Constraining the process by which volcanoes become unstable is difficult. Several models have been proposed to explain the driving forces which cause volcanic edifices to catastrophically collapse. These include models for destabilisation of volcanic flanks by wedging due to dyke intrusion and the weakening of mechanical properties by pressurisation of pore fluids. It is not known which, if any, of the models are relevant to particular sector collapse events. Recent developments in the palaeomagnetic estimation of emplacement temperatures of volcaniclastic rocks have shown that even relatively low emplacement temperatures can be recorded by volcaniclastics with high fidelity. We have carried out a palaeomagnetic study of emplacement temperatures to investigate the role of igneous activity in the initiation of the 9,500 b.p. Murimotu sector collapse of Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand. This debris avalanche deposit has three fades which are stratigraphically superimposed, and the lowermost fades contains three lithological assemblages representing different segments of the edifice which were transported with little internal mixing within the flow. We have determined that some of the dacite-bearing assemblage 1, fades 1 was hot (∼350 °C) during transport and emplacement, whereas none of the other lithological assemblages of fades contained hot material. Our interpretation is that a dacite dome was active on the ancient Ruapehu edifice immediately prior to the Murimotu sector collapse. The partially cooled carapace of the dome and material shed from this part was incorporated into the avalanche deposit, along with cold lavas and volcaniclastics. We have not found evidence for incorporation of material at or close to magmatic temperatures, at least in the sampled locations. Our palaeomagnetic work allows us to develop a comprehensive, new palaeomagnetic classification of volcaniclastics. Published online: 25 January 2003 Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell     

Characterization of volcanic thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis

The simultaneous solution of the Planck equation (involving the widely used “dual-band” technique) using two shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands allows for an estimate of the fractional area of the hottest part of an active lava flow (f _h) and the background temperature of the cooler crust (T _c). The use of a high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometer with a wide dynamic range of 15 bits (DAIS 7915) in the wavelength range from 0.501 to 12.67 μm resulted in the identification of crustal temperature and fractional areas for an intra-crater hot spot at Mount Etna, Italy. This study indicates the existence of a relationship between these T _c and f _h extracted from DAIS and Landsat TM data. When the dual band equation system is performed on a lava flow, a logarithmic distribution is obtained from a plot of the fractional area of the hottest temperature vs. the temperature of the cooler crust. An entirely different distribution is obtained over active degassing vents, where increases in T _c occur without any increase in f _h. This result indicates that we can use scatter plots of T _c vs. fh to discriminate between different types of volcanic activity, in this case between degassing vents and lava flows, using satellite thermal data.     

Carbonatites in a subduction system: The Pleistocene alvikites from Mt. Vulture (southern Italy)

We report here, for the first time, on the new finding of extrusive calciocarbonatite (alvikite) rocks from the Pleistocene Mt. Vulture volcano (southern Italy). These volcanic rocks, which represent an outstanding occurrence in the wider scenario of the Italian potassic magmatism, form lavas, pyroclastic deposits, and feeder dikes exposed on the northern slope of the volcano. The petrography, mineralogy and whole-rock chemistry attest the genuine carbonatitic nature of these rocks, that are characterized by high to very high contents of Sr, Ba, U, LREE, Nb, P, F, Th, high Nb/Ta and LREE/HREE ratios, and low contents of Ti, Zr, K, Rb, Na and Cs. The O–C isotope compositions are close to the “primary igneous carbonatite” field and, thus, are compatible with an ultimate mantle origin for these rocks. The Sr–Nd–Pb–B isotope compositions, measured both in the alvikites and in the silicate volcanic rocks, indicate a close genetic relationship between the alvikites and the associated melilitite/nephelinite rocks. Furthermore, these latter products are geochemically distinct from the main foiditic-phonolitic association of Mt. Vulture. We propose a petrogenetic/geodynamic interpretation which has important implications for understanding the relationships between carbonatites and orogenic activity. In particular, we propose that the studied alvikites are generated through liquid unmixing at crustal levels, starting from nephelinitic or melilititic parent liquids. These latter were produced in a hybrid mantle resulting from the interaction through a vertical slab window, between a metasomatized mantle wedge, moving eastward from the Tyrrhenian/Campanian region, and the local Adriatic mantle. The occurrence of carbonatite rocks at Mt. Vulture, that lies on the leading edge of the Southern Apennines accretionary prism, is taken as an evidence for the carbonatation of the mantle sources of this volcano. We speculate that mantle carbonatation is related to the introduction of sedimentary carbon from the Adriatic lithosphere during Tertiary subduction.     

大兴安岭北段诺敏大山地区早白垩世侵入岩地球化学特征及其构造意义

本文选择大兴安岭北段诺敏大山地区早白垩世侵入岩进行了锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学研究,探讨该区域侵入岩成因类型、岩浆来源及构造环境。该区侵入岩岩性主要为正长花岗岩、正长花岗斑岩和似斑状正长花岗岩,对其中正长花岗岩样品进行LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年表明,正长花岗岩侵位年龄为129.5±0.4 Ma,应为早白垩世岩浆活动的产物,结合区内侵入岩与地层相互接触关系,本区侵入岩形成时代为早白垩世。区内侵入岩具有富硅（SiO2= 67.36%~74.09%）、富碱（K2O+Na2O= 8.88%~9.34%）、高铝（Al2O3= 12.56%~16.15%）,低MgO、TiO2、CaO的特点,属于高钾钙碱性岩石系列;铝饱和指数（A/CNK）为0.94~1.31,为准铝质—过铝质岩石。微量元素富集Rb、U、Th、K等大离子亲石元素,强烈亏损Ti、Nb、Sr、P等高场强元素,具有明显的Eu负异常,属于高分异I型花岗岩。岩石Rb/Sr为0.9~2.0,Sr/Y为4.2~7.2,显示出高Sr、低Y的特点,指示岩浆源区为地壳物质的部分熔融。结合区域研究成果,蒙古—鄂霍茨克构造域在早白垩世之前已结束碰撞,诺敏大山地区早白垩世岩浆活动可能发生在蒙古—鄂霍茨克造山后的伸展环境。