A comparison of selected global disaster risk assessment results

We compare country risk rankings derived from two recently published global disaster risk analyses. One set of country rankings is based on the Disaster Risk Index (DRI) developed by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Division of Early Warning and Assessment Global Resource Information Database project under a contract to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The other is based on an index of disaster mortality risk developed by the Global Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots project implemented by Columbia University, the World Bank and associated partners. We convert data from these sources into two comparable indexes of disaster mortality risk and rank countries according to the resulting values for a set of natural hazards common to both studies. The country rankings are moderately correlated, ranging from .41 to .56 for individual hazards to .31 for multi-hazard mortality risks. We identify the top 25 countries according to the mortality risk values we recomputed from each study’s results to show the degree to which countries are highly ranked in common. The numbers of countries common to both lists for individual hazards range from 7 to 16 out of 25. The correspondence among the top 25 ranked countries is lowest for earthquakes and floods. Only 6 out of 25 countries are common to both lists in the multi-hazard case. We suggest that while the convergence in the results for some hazards is encouraging, more work is needed to improve data and methods, particularly with respect to assessing the role of vulnerability in the creation of risk and the calculation of multi-hazard risks. The views expressed are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of SM2 Consulting Multi-Hazards and Risk Holistic Solutions or the United Nations Development Program.     

唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析

运用震后航空像片抽样统计了唐山地震的房屋倒塌率,分析了造成人员伤亡的主要原因是房屋毁坏。据此,建立了地震人员伤亡率与房倒率的回归方程,该方程可用于震前人员伤亡预测和震后快速粗估     

云南省地震灾害中人员伤亡的统计分析

本文在历史地震资料总结的基础上,介绍了云南地震中人员伤亡区域分布的主要特点。对地震的人员伤亡与震级、死亡率与烈度等关系进行了初步统计分析,并获得相应的经验关系。     

Live shearing free-ranging guanacos (Lama guanicoe) in Patagonia for sustainable use

Guanaco (Lama guanicoe) populations declined after the introduction of domestic sheep and the emerging conflicts with sheep breeders and their livestock. Apart from conflicts with sheep ranching, guanacos have declined due to poaching, legal overhunting, and lack of sound management schemes. Guanacos have been proposed as a key species for rural development in Latin America, so research on tools for their sustainable use is required. We tested a mobile corral trap (MCT) designed for live-trapping and shearing free-ranging guanacos at four ranches along Patagonia. We assessed mortality and injury rates related to our procedures and calculated and compared roundup and capture efficiencies. We captured a total of 55 guanacos (13 females, 38 males, and 4 calves), and live-sheared 30. No mortalities were recorded. Average roundup and capture efficiencies were 11.9 guanacos roundup⁻¹ (range 8–20) and 11% (range 0.3–31.5%), respectively. Mean fleece weight was 307±15 g for females and 338±12 g for males. The MCT employed seems promising for capturing and shearing free-ranging guanacos for their sustainable use. Management implications include: (1) sheep ranches may obtain benefits, generating a positive perception toward guanacos; (2) guanaco populations may increase and even colonize devoid areas due to an increased protection level.     

中国土壤中化学元素与宫颈癌的相关性研究

本文利用中国土壤元素资料2069448个数据，宫颈癌死亡调查资料119760例，研究了宫颈癌死亡率与人群生存的土壤环境中As、Cd、Co、Cr、Cu、F、Hg、Mn、Ni、Pb、Se等64个元素的相关性。结果表明，宫颈癌的发病率与土壤环境中化学元素的含量具有较强的相关性。     

Vertical migration of Daphnia galeata – Evidence for the use of an alternative resource from a lethal environment

Metazoans normally avoid anaerobic environments, at least when they are combined with toxic stress due to hydrogen sulfide. In Lake Speldrop, a small but deep gravel pit lake at the Lower Rhine, Daphnia galeata was found not only to dominate the zooplankton community, but was also regularly found in anoxic and even sulfidic layers during summer. We conducted field experiments with a newly developed “Zooplankton In-situ Incubator”, simulating vertical migrations of D. galeata. When daphnids were exposed to sulfidic conditions, mortality increased with exposure time, revealing LT₅₀-values between 129 and 42 min in relation to increasing concentrations of sulfide. Additionally, those experimental individuals originating from 12.5 m depth showed significantly higher mortality rates than those from 7.5 m depth. Further migration experiments showed that an interruption period of sulfidic exposition in less stressful environments reduced mortality rates significantly. Daphnids found in the hypolimnion belonged partly to moribund parts of the population; however, the majority of daphnids showed regular mowing activity and was able to withstand sulfidic conditions in the hypolimnion for a limited time. It is so far unclear what maybe the major ultimate factor for this type of short term migratory behavior, to seek for shelter or to use high amounts of sulfur bacteria as an alternative food resource.     

Arsenic in drinking and lung cancer mortality in Taiwan

The association between exposure to arsenic in drinking water and lung cancer has been observed in some epidemiology studies, but dose–response data are limited. To assess the dose–response relationship and identify hot spots, we analyzed the national death registry data of Taiwan from 1971 to 2000. We adopted data on 311 townships gathered by a nationwide survey of drinking water and divided arsenic levels into three groups: below 0.05 mg/L, 0.05–0.35 mg/L, and above 0.35 mg/L. Using the direct standardization method to adjust for the effects of age, we calculated the standardized mortality rates of lung cancer in both genders and evaluated their associations with arsenic levels. We also used the geographical information system to identify the hot spots. During the 30-year study period, we identified 64,954 male and 27,039 female lung cancer deaths in the study townships. We found significant increases in lung cancer mortality associated with arsenic levels above 0.35 mg/L in both genders, but the increases associated with levels between 0.05 and 0.35 mg/L were statistically significant in men only. Using both 0.05 and 0.35 mg/L as the cut-offs, we found most of the hot spots were in the southwestern coast and northeastern areas, but the southwestern coast area had some hot spots where the percentages of high risk population were higher than any hot spots in the northeastern area.     

Volcanic air pollution and mortality in France 1783–1784

The impact that volcanic eruptions may have upon environments far from the volcanic source is conventionally assumed to depend on climatic modification by emitted gases. However, recent research has suggested that the damage caused by the direct impact of volcanic gases, mainly H₂SO₄, may be profound. This paper highlights the severity of this mechanism by reference to human sickness and death in France and contiguous with the eruption of the Laki fissure in Iceland in 1783. This work demonstrates the gains which may be made by interdisciplinary teams of researchers and illustrates the valuable knowledge that remains to be revealed by further research in the French historical record. To cite this article: J. Grattan et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).