Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区极端弱降水的时空变化特征

选用塔克拉玛干沙漠周边40个气象站1961-2009年日降水资料和4个极端弱降水指标,分析该地区极端弱降水的时空变化特征。采用M-K法和F检验对各站点降水指标的变化趋势及变化率进行检验和计算,并利用Monte Carlo模拟进行区域显著性检验。由 Copula函数得到两降水指标的联合分布,计算两降水指标的联合重现期。结果表明：（1）年最长连续无降水日数（CDD）多为80～100 d,呈显著减少趋势;出现频率最高的每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的日数（D₂₅）为0～10 d,呈显著增加趋势;每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的总降水量（P₂₅）的值集中在0～1.5 mm,2～3 mm的 P₂₅从2000年才开始出现;出现频率最高的每年日降水量小于降水日序列25%分位数的日平均降水量（I₂₅）为0.1～0.3 mm,I₂₅超过0.4 mm的情况极少出现。（2）CDD与D₂₅和P₂₅各自五年一遇值的空间分布相反。除CDD和D₂₅均大于各自五年一遇值的联合重现期较长外,其余各类型联合重现期较短。沙漠周边地区发生不同类型极端弱降水事件的概率不同。     

Combined experimental and theoretical studies on methane photolysis at 121.6 and 248 nm—implications on a program of laboratory simulations of Titan’s atmosphere

Methane is, together with N₂, the main precursor of Titan’s atmospheric chemistry. In our laboratory, we are currently developing a program of laboratory simulations of Titan’s atmosphere, where methane is intended to be dissociated by multiphotonic photolysis at 248 nm. A preliminary study has shown that multiphotonic absorption of methane at 248 nm is efficient and leads to the production of hydrocarbons such as C₂H₂ (Romanzin et al., 2008). Yet, at this wavelength, little is known about the branching ratios of the hydrocarbon radicals (CH₃, CH₂ and CH) and their following photochemistry. This paper thus aims at investigating methane photochemistry at 248 nm by comparing the chemical evolution observed after irradiation of CH₄ at 248 and at 121.6 nm (Ly-α). It is indeed important to see if the chemistry is driven the same way at both wavelengths in particular because, on Titan, methane photolysis mainly involves Ly-α photons. An approach combining experiments and theoretical analysis by means of a specifically adapted 0-D model has thus been developed and is presented in this paper. The results obtained clearly indicate that the chemistry is different depending on the wavelength. They also suggest that at 248 nm, methane dissociation is in competition with ionisation, which could occur through a three-photon absorption process. As a consequence, 248 nm photolysis appears to be unsuitable to study methane neutral photochemistry alone. The implications of this result on our laboratory simulation program and new experimental developments are discussed. Additional information on methane photochemistry at 121.6 nm are also obtained.     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Correlation failure analysis of an uncertain hysteretic vibration system

In this paper, a numerical method for correlation sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear random vibration system is presented. Based on the first passage failure model, the probability perturbation method is employed to determine the statistical characteristics of failure modes and the correlation between them. The sensitivity of correlation between failure modes with respect to random parameters characterizing the uncertainty of the hysteretic loop is discussed. In a numerical example, a two-DOF shear structure with uncertain hysteretic restoring force is considered. The statistical characteristics of response, failure modes and the sensitivity of random hysteretic loop parameters are provided, and also compared with a Monte Carlo simulation.     

Reliability analysis of piles in spatially varying soils considering multiple failure modes

In most limit state design codes, the serviceability limit checks for drilled shafts still use deterministic approaches. Moreover, different limit states are usually considered separately. This paper develops a probabilistic framework to assess the serviceability performance with the consideration of soil spatial variability in reliability analysis. Specifically, the performance of a drilled shaft is defined in terms of the vertical settlement, lateral deflection, and angular distortion at the top of the shaft, corresponding to three limit states in the reliability analysis. Failure is defined as the event that the displacements exceed the corresponding tolerable displacements. The spatial variability of soil properties is considered using random field modeling. To illustrate the proposed framework, this study assesses the reliability of each limit state and the system reliability of a numerical example of a drilled shaft. The results show the system reliability should be considered for the serviceability performance. The importance measures of the random variables indicate that the external loads, the performance criteria, the model errors of load transfer curves and soil strength parameter are the most important factors in reliability analysis. Moreover, it is shown that the correlation length and coefficient of variation of soil strength can exert significant impacts on the calculated failure probability.     

三峡工程建成后枯水期运行的气候风险研究

通过蒙特卡罗试验, 探讨了三峡工程建成后枯水期运行风险的评估方法。以GCM模拟试验结果为未来气候情景, 随机模拟了三峡地区在该气候情景下枯水期月降水量分布; 建立了三峡地区月径流-降水模型和三峡水库调度模型; 初步分析了长江三峡工程建成后在当前气候背景和可能未来气候情景下的运行风险。结果表明, 三峡水库的运行对气候变化反应敏感, 春季和冬季的发电风险有明显改变。     

Dual models of pore spaces

We present a model for pore spaces that consists of two parts related by duality: (1) a decomposition of an open polyhedral pore space into open contractible pore bodies separated by relatively open interfaces and (2) a pore network that is homotopy equivalent to the pore space. The dual model is unique and free of parameters, but it relies on regularity conditions for the pore space. We show how to approximate any pore space by the interior of a polyhedral complex such that the regularity conditions are fulfilled. Thus, we are able to calculate the dual model from synthetic porous media and images of real porous media. The pore bodies are unions of relatively open Delaunay cells with respect to the corners of the pore boundary, and the pore network consists of certain at most two-dimensional (2D) Voronoi cells with respect to the corners of the pore boundary. The pore network describes the neighborhood relations between the pore bodies. In particular, any relatively open 2D Delaunay face f separating two pore bodies has a unique (relatively open) dual network edge. In our model, f is a pore throat only if it is hit by its dual network edge. Thus, as opposed to widespread intuition, any pore throat is convex, and adjacent pore bodies are not necessarily separated by pore throats. Due to the duality between the pore network and the decomposition of the pore space into pore bodies it is straightforward to store the geometrical properties of the pore bodies [pore throats] as attributes of the dual network vertices [edges]. Such an attributed network is used to perform 2D drainage simulations. The results agree very well with those from a pore-morphology based modeling approach performed directly on the digital image of a porous medium. Contractibility of the pore bodies and homotopy equivalence of the pore space and the pore network is proven using discrete Morse theory and the nerve theorem from combinatorial topology.     

地下夹塞断面形状随机性对平面SH波散射的影响

采用波函数展开法及边界离散的方法给出了任意断面形状的地下夹塞对平面SH波散射的半解析解; 利用蒙特卡罗方法随机模拟产生了30组夹塞断面样本, 通过对该样本在平面SH波入射下地表位移幅值的统计分析, 研究了夹塞断面形状随机性对平面SH波散射的影响. 结果表明, 夹塞断面形状随机性对平面SH波的散射具有重要影响. 以圆形夹塞为例, 当断面半径的变异系数为0.1时, 地表位移响应幅值变异系数可达0.71. 随着入射频率的升高, 变异系数逐渐增大; 随着夹塞刚度的降低, 变异系数逐渐增大; 随着夹塞埋深的增加, 变异系数逐渐减小.     

From stable dipolar towards reversing numerical dynamos

We are using a three-dimensional convection-driven numerical dynamo model without hyperdiffusivity to study the characteristic structure and time variability of the magnetic field in dependence of the Rayleigh number (Ra) for values up to 40 times supercritical. We also compare a variety of ways to drive the convection and basically find two dynamo regimes. At low Ra, the magnetic field at the surface of the model is dominated by the non-reversing axial dipole component. At high Ra, the dipole part becomes small in comparison to higher multipole components. At transitional values of Ra, the dynamo vacillates between the dipole-dominated and the multipolar regime, which includes excursions and reversals of the dipole axis. We discuss, in particular, one model of chemically driven convection, where for a suitable value of Ra, the mean dipole moment and the temporal evolution of the magnetic field resemble the known properties of the Earth’s field from paleomagnetic data.