Tidal effects and the environment dependence of halo assembly

We explore a possible origin for the puzzling anti-correlation between the formation epoch of galactic dark-matter haloes and their environment density. This correlation has been revealed from cosmological N -body simulations and is in conflict with the extended Press–Schechter model of halo clustering. Using similar simulations, we first quantify the straightforward association of an early formation epoch with a reduced mass-growth rate at late times. We then find that a primary driver of suppressed growth, by accretion and mergers, is tidal effects dominated by a neighbouring massive halo. The tidal effects range from a slowdown of the assembly of haloes due to the shear along the large-scale filaments that feed the massive halo to actual mass loss in haloes that pass through the massive halo. Using the restricted three-body problem, we show that haloes are prone to tidal mass loss within 1.5 virial radii of a larger halo. Our results suggest that the dependence of the formation epoch on environment density is a secondary effect induced by the enhanced density of haloes in filaments near massive haloes where the tides are strong. Our measures of assembly rate are particularly correlated with the tidal field at high redshifts   z ∼ 1  .     

Galactic Dynamo and Spiral Arms - 3D MHD Simulations

In the present project we investigate the evolution of a three-dimensional (3D), large-scale galactic magnetic field under the influence of gas flows in spiral arms and in the presence of dynamo action. Our principal goal is to check how the dynamical evolution of gaseous spiral arms affects the global magnetic field structure and to what extent our models could explain the observed spiral patterns of polarization B-vectors in nearby galaxies. A two-step scheme is used: the N-body simulations of a two-component, self-gravitating disk provide the time-dependent velocity fields which are then used as the input to solve the mean-field dynamo equations. We found that the magnetic field is directly influenced by large-scale non-axisymmetric density wave flows yielding the magnetic field locally well-aligned with gaseous spiral arms in a manner similar to that discussed already by Otmianowska-Mazur et al. 1997. However, an additional field amplification, introduced by a non-zero -term in the dynamo equations, is required to cause a systematic increase of magnetic energy density against the diffusive losses. Our simulated magnetic fields are also used to construct the models of a high-frequency (Faraday rotation-free) polarized radio emission accounting for effects of projection and limited resolution, thus suitable for direct comparisons with observations.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的三维剖面地质界线不确定性分析

三维剖面地质界线是构建三维地质结构模型的重要基础数据,其不确定性会影响三维模型的几何形态和属性分布。以单一分布为假设前提的统计学不确定性分析方法掩盖了其他概率分布特征对模型的影响。突破单一误差分布条件的假设前提,本文使用Monte Carlo方法模拟了不同概率分布情况下地质剖面数据中地质界线的抽样采集,以及地质界线空间分布的不确定性;依托地质界线空间位置与地质属性的耦合关系,提出了用地质属性概率分布实现地质界线空间不确定性的定量可视化,并结合实际地质剖面探讨了多种概率分布条件下地质界线的空间不确定性。实例研究表明,基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性分析方法可以突破单一误差分布假设条件,结合地质属性概率可充分揭示出建模数据的内在不确定性与模型外在要素形态之间的耦合关系。     

裂隙岩体三维柔度张量的数值试验方法

在裂隙岩体二维柔度张量数值试验的基础上,建立了裂隙岩体三维柔度张量及其表征单元体积（REV）尺度研究的简化数值试验方法。首先根据岩体裂隙的统计参数及分布规律,运用蒙特卡罗方法在研究域内获得与实际岩体裂隙同分布的三维随机裂隙网络,提取位于不同方位的岩体试件,运用二维柔度张量的数值试验方法求出各个平面方向上的二维柔度张量,然后根据二维与三维柔度张量的拓扑关系,用数学方法求解裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。对于含3组正交全贯通裂隙的岩体,通过数值试验获得的柔度张量与理论解相比,其主对角线上各参数的误差在5%以内,表明该数值试验方法较为可靠。最后将此方法运用到小湾水电站工程中,确定左岸坝区裂隙岩体的应力REV为11 m×11 m×11 m,并获得该区域裂隙岩体的三维柔度张量。     

Quantifying uncertainty in remote sensing-based urban land-use mapping

Land-use/land-cover information constitutes an important component in the calibration of many urban growth models. Typically, the model building involves a process of historic calibration based on time series of land-use maps. Medium-resolution satellite imagery is an interesting source for obtaining data on land-use change, yet inferring information on the use of urbanised spaces from these images is a challenging task that is subject to different types of uncertainty. Quantifying and reducing the uncertainties in land-use mapping and land-use change model parameter assessment are therefore crucial to improve the reliability of urban growth models relying on these data. In this paper, a remote sensing-based land-use mapping approach is adopted, consisting of two stages: (i) estimating impervious surface cover at sub-pixel level through linear regression unmixing and (ii) inferring urban land use from urban form using metrics describing the spatial structure of the built-up area, together with address data. The focus lies on quantifying the uncertainty involved in this approach. Both stages of the land-use mapping process are subjected to Monte Carlo simulation to assess their relative contribution to and their combined impact on the uncertainty in the derived land-use maps. The robustness to uncertainty of the land-use mapping strategy is addressed by comparing the most likely land-use maps obtained from the simulation with the original land-use map, obtained without taking uncertainty into account. The approach was applied on the Brussels-Capital Region and the central part of the Flanders region (Belgium), covering the city of Antwerp, using a time series of SPOT data for 1996, 2005 and 2012. Although the most likely land-use map obtained from the simulation is very similar to the original land-use map – indicating absence of bias in the mapping process – it is shown that the errors related to the impervious surface sub-pixel fraction estimation have a strong impact on the land-use map's uncertainty. Hence, uncertainties observed in the derived land-use maps should be taken into account when using these maps as an input for modelling of urban growth.     

Computational study of tetrahedral Al–Si and octahedral Al–Mg ordering in phengite

 As part of a wider study of the nature and origins of cation order–disorder in micas, a variety of computational techniques have been used to investigate the nature of tetrahedral and octahedral ordering in phengite, K₂ ^[6](Al₃Mg)^[4](Si₇Al)O₂₀(OH)₄. Values of the atomic exchange interaction parameters J _n used to model the energies of order–disorder were calculated. Both tetrahedral Al–Si and octahedral Al–Mg ordering were studied and hence three types of interaction parameter were necessary: for T–T, O–O and T–O interactions (where T denotes tetrahedral sites and O denotes octahedral sites). Values for the T–T and O–O interactions were taken from results on other systems, whilst we calculated new values for the T–O interactions. We have demonstrated that modelling the octahedral and tetrahedral sheets alone and independently produces different results from modelling a whole T–O–T layer, hence justifying the inclusion of the T–O interactions. Simulations of a whole T–O–T layer of phengite indicated the presence of short-range order, but no long-range order was observed. Received: 8 August 2002 / Accepted: 14 February 2003 Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to EPSRC (EJP) and the Royal Society (CIS) for financial support. Monte Carlo simulations were performed on the Mineral Physics Group's Beowulf cluster and the University of Cambridge's High Performance Computing Facility.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)

Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.