一次冰雹天气过程分析

对奎玛流域一次冰雹天气的分析表明，在巴尔喀什湖低槽加强东移的环流背景下，低层水汽辐合、抬升启动和层结不稳定有利于该地区强对流的发生、发展，中尺度强对流云团的形成、发展是产生这次冰雹天气的主要原因。     

Paleoseismicity and Segmentation Along the Active Fault at the Northern Boundary of Huailai-Zhuolu Basin,Hebei Province

The northern boundary fault of Huailai-Zhuolu basin,Hebei Province,has a total length of 58 km and a general strike of NE.The geometry and feature of activity of the 5 segments of the fault greatly differ from each other.17 paleoseismic events have been recognized within 11 trenches excavated along the different segments of the fault.It is found that each segment is characterized by its distinct recurrence of paleoearthquakes.The recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes for each segment are 3500-7000 a for the shortest and 17,000-20,500 a for the longest.However,the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes for whole fault ranges between 750-8500 a.The boundary of the segments can be recognized as the junction,gap,bending,jog and salient of the fault.The length of the segment ranges between 7.5-14 km.     

黑河中游灌区地下水位短期季节性变化趋势预测

利用黑河中游平川、板桥、鸭暖和蓼泉灌区8眼观测井的1985-2002年逐月实测平均地下水位埋深资料(共1728个月),基于帕森斯季节性指数理论,分别建立了黑河中游灌区具有代表性的平川、板桥、鸭暖、蓼泉四灌区共8眼观测井季节地下水位埋深动态变化预测模型,并用2003年各观测井的资料进行了趋势预测进行检验.结果表明:观测井地下水位变化过程呈线性递减的相关系数越显著,其拟合误差和预测误差越小.各观测井地下水位帕森斯季节性指数模型拟合差≤0.05 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为38.33%,拟合差≤0.10 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为72.50%,>0.25 m的月数占总检验月数的比例平均为2.00%;各观测井预测误差≤0.05 m的月数占总预报月数的比例平均为36.46%,预测误差≤0.10 m的月数占总预报月数的比例平均为64.38%,>0.25 m的平均比例仅为2.00%,说明帕森斯季节性指数模型可以对短期黑河中游典型灌区地下水位动态趋势进行预测.     

北祁连加里东造山带从挤压到伸展造山机制的转换

早古生代早期，北祁连造山带发生强烈的挤压变形作用，形成加里东期的俯冲－增生杂岩、高压变质岩，并使造山带岩石圈地壳加厚缩短。志留纪末期，加厚的造山带岩石圈由于垮塌作用及根部的拆沉作用，使造山带从挤压造山机制转换为伸展造山机制，并进入后造山伸展作用阶段，增厚的岩石圈开始减薄，发生不同层次的伸展作用，同时伴随花岗岩及Ａｎ∈变质岩的穹隆以及泥盆纪磨拉石盆地上叠盆地（Ｃ－Ｔ）的形成。石炭纪末，北祁连造山带岩石圈地壳已基本减薄到正常厚度。而现今的北祁连造山带的缩短和抬升则为喜马拉雅期再造山作用的产物     

胶莱盆地白垩纪构造应力场与转换机制

通过对胶莱盆地断层滑动矢量的收集与测量,利用计算机程序反演了盆地白垩纪的古构造应力场演化历史,并据此将盆地的发育划分为三个伸展阶段和三个挤压反转阶段,分别为早白垩世早-中期莱阳期伸展,与造山期后应力松弛重力坍塌有关;早白垩世中-晚期青山期伸展,受早白垩纪早期以后广泛的岩石圈减薄、大陆裂陷制约;晚白垩世王氏期伸展,与郯庐断裂及牟平-即墨断裂右旋走滑有关。三期伸展之间存在构造挤压反转,最后阐明各期盆地发育的地球动力学背景。     

完达山造山带原型盆地及可能的造山机制

完达山造山带是东亚环太平洋构造带的重要组成部分,是中国北方唯一的中生代深水活动类型沉积建造出露区。三叠纪—侏罗纪硅质岩－碎屑岩系构成了这个造山带的主体,其沉积序列总体表现为一向上变浅、碎屑颗粒变粗的沉积旋回,其中的硅质岩、泥岩稀土元素以Ｃｅ的正异常为特征;砂岩构架颗粒成分与典型的弧前盆地相同。这些特征表明,完达山造山带三叠纪—侏罗纪的原型盆地是东亚陆缘区弧前盆地的组成部分。构造解析结果进一步揭示,造山带只发育一期透入性的变形构造,与增生杂岩的变形序列明显不同。基于上述结论并结合区域构造分析结果提出,完达山造山带的隆升主要是中生代东亚陆缘型岩浆弧东移、本区卷入科迪勒拉型造山带所致。     

沁南地区煤层气生产潜力研究

本文以沁水盆地南部地区煤层气生产试验井的徘采资料为基础，结合煤田地质勘探和中联公司煤层气勘探所获得的地质、生产资料，阐述了煤层气井的排采机理。并以TL—003井排采试验为例进行详细剖析，运用储层模拟技术，研究、分析影响煤层气产出的主要参数，初步预测了该区煤层气井的生产潜力。     

Meso‐Cenozoic Tectonothermal History of Permian Strata,Southwestern Weibei Uplift: Insights from Thermochronology and Geothermometry

This study provides an integrated interpretation for the Mesozoic-Cenozoic tectonothermal evolutionary history of the Permian strata in the Qishan area of the southwestern Weibei Uplift, Ordos Basin. Apatite fission-track and apatite/zircon(U-Th)/He thermochronometry, bitumen reflectance, thermal conductivity of rocks, paleotemperature recovery, and basin modeling were used to restore the Meso-Cenozoic tectonothermal history of the Permian Strata. The Triassic AFT data have a pooled age of ～180±7 Ma with one age peak and P(χ2)=86%. The average value of corrected apatite(U-Th)/He age of two Permian sandstones is ～168±4 Ma and a zircon(U-Th)/He age from the Cambrian strata is ～231±14 Ma. Bitumen reflectance and maximum paleotemperature of two Ordovician mudstones are 1.81%, 1.57% and ～210°C, ～196°C respectively. After undergoing a rapid subsidence and increasing temperature in Triassic influenced by intrusive rocks in some areas, the Permian strata experienced four cooling-uplift stages after the time when the maximum paleotemperature reached in late Jurassic:(1) A cooling stage(～163 Ma to ～140 Ma) with temperatures ranging from ～132°C to ～53°C and a cooling rate of ～3°C/Ma, an erosion thickness of ～1900 m and an uplift rate of ～82 m/Ma;(2) A cooling stage(～140 Ma to ～52 Ma) with temperatures ranging from ～53°C to ～47°C and a cooling rate less than ～0.1°C/Ma, an erosion thickness of ～300 m and an uplift rate of ～3 m/Ma;(3)(～52 Ma to ～8 Ma) with ～47°C to ～43°C and ～0.1°C/Ma, an erosion thickness of ～500 m and an uplift rate of ～11 m/Ma;(3)(～8 Ma to present) with ～43°C to ～20°C and ～3°C/Ma, an erosion thickness of ～650 m and an uplift rate of ～81 m/Ma. The tectonothermal evolutionary history of the Qishan area in Triassic was influenced by the interaction of the Qinling Orogeny and the Weibei Uplift, and the south Qishan area had the earliest uplift-cooling time compared to other parts within the Weibei Uplift. The early Eocene at ～52 Ma and the late Miocene at ～8 Ma, as two significant turning points after which both the rate of uplift and the rate of temperature changed rapidly, were two key time for the uplift-cooling history of the Permian strata in the Qishan area of the southwestern Weibei Uplift, Ordos Basin.     

内陆河流域山区水文与生态研究

以河西走廊黑河干流山区流域为例,从山区水文循环、水文与生态系统以及径流形成和预测等方面讨论山区流域水文和生态相互作用研究的有关问题。山区降水的空间和时间分布规律和固态、液态降水组成变化主要受制于海拔和地形的影响,而不同海拔和地形条件下的下垫面不同土地覆被和复杂的空间异质性则主要影响蒸散发量。对内陆河山区流域的水文小循环的研究,有助于进一步研究和认识内陆河流域上、中、下游水文和生态系统的相互联系问题。至今,对山区水文过程与生态系统的相互作用问题的研究还非常薄弱,需要研究山区森林草地生态系统在山区水文循环中的作用以及在维持和保护山区生态和环境中的作用和意义。内陆河流域山区水文过程复杂而综合性强,须加强对山区径流形成机理的多学科交叉研究,不断改善出山径流对气候变化和人类活动响应过程的模拟和预测水平。     

梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式

利用Copula函数建立各分区洪水的联合分布,基于联合概率密度最大原则,推导得到最可能地区组成法的计算通式,并用来推求梯级水库下游断面的设计洪水。选择清江流域水布垭-隔河岩-高坝洲梯级水库为例,开展了验证和方法比较研究。结果表明:最可能地区组成法计算得到的设计洪水值位于同频率地区组成法多方案计算结果的区间之内;受清江梯级水库调洪的影响,宜都断面设计洪水的削峰率十分显著,最可能地区组成法推求100年一遇设计洪水的削峰率达到30.2%。该法具有较强的统计基础,组成方案唯一,结果合理可行,为复杂梯级水库设计洪水的计算提供了一种新途径。