A new assessment model for evacuation vulnerability in urban areas

In the high-speed urbanization process of China, the urban population has been increasing significantly, leading to a high-density aggregation of population. However, the sharp increase in population density has not produced commensurate improvements in the road networks. On the contrary, the population increase induced a serious evacuation vulnerability, which cities experience during various hazards and catastrophic events. Therefore, research on evacuation vulnerability is important to urban planning. To assess the evacuation vulnerability, the optimal and worst scenarios should be considered because all possible evacuation plans occur between these extremes. However, most previous evacuation vulnerability studies are based on the worst-case scenario, only providing an upper bound of a potential evacuation assessment. To provide a more comprehensive theoretical basis for decision-makers to understand the consequences caused by all possible evacuations, this paper proposes an optimal evacuation vulnerability assessment model that provides the lower bound on potential evacuation difficulties. The model is solved by a stepwise spreading algorithm based on Graph Theory. Subsequently, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the study adopts the model to assess the evacuation capability of different road network topologies. A comparison with previous research was performed. The model was demonstrated in an application to the South Luogu Alley of Beijing, China. The significance of this paper is that the combination of our model with previous research may provide a more complete theoretical basis for an evacuation vulnerability assessment.     

2011年3月日本福岛核电站核泄漏在海洋中的传输

使用全球版本的迈阿密等密度海洋环流模式对2011年3月日本福岛核电站泄漏在海洋中的传输以及扩散进行了数值模拟。数值模式中核废料(示踪物)排放情景采取等通量连续排放,排放时间从3月25日开始,分别持续20 d以及1 a,两种情形分别积分20 a。为了减少海洋环流年际变化带来的数值模拟的的不确定性,20 a的模式积分分别用2010年、1991-2011年、1971-1991年以及1951-1971年4个不同时段的NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料作为大气强迫场,因此每种排放情形包含4个数值试验。模拟结果的分析表明,不同核废料排放情景及其在不同时段大气资料对海洋模式的驱动下,模拟的示踪物总体的传输扩散路径(包括表层以及次表层)、传输速率以及垂直扩展的范围没有显著的差异。集合平均数值模拟的结果显示:在两种排放情景下,日本福岛核泄漏在海洋的传输路径受北太平洋副热带涡旋洋流系统主导,其传输路径首先主要向东,到达东太平洋后,再向南向西扩散至西太平洋,可能在10~15 a左右影响到我国东部沿海海域,且海洋次表层的传输信号比表层信号早5 a左右。通过进一步分析模式积分过程中最大示踪物浓度随时间变化发现,在积分第20 a(2031年3月),海洋表层和次表层浓度的最高值分别只有模式积分第一年浓度的0.1%和1%。在积分的20 a里,排放的核废料主要滞留在北太平洋海域(超过86%±1.5%的核废料在积分结束时,滞留在北太平洋),而在积分的前10 a(2021年之前),几乎所有的核废料滞留在北太平洋;在核废料的垂直分布上,主要集中在海洋表层至600 m的深度,在积分的20 a时间里,没有核废料信号扩散至1 000 m以下的深度。数值模拟的结果也表明核废料浓度减弱的强度以及演变的时间特征主要受洋流系统的影响,与排放源的排放时间长短关系不大。值得指出的是,更加准确地评估一个真实的核泄漏事故对海洋环境所造成的可能影响,还需要考虑大气中的放射性物质的沉降以及海洋生态对核物质的响应。     

地理信息系统中的网络模型

社会中的很多空间现象,如交通、信息交流和生活消费品的运输等都是线性的。在ARC INFO地理信息系统(GIS)中,这些线性现象经过组织和处理,能够建立成网络及其数据库。从而可用来解决资源的合理分配和流动、交通运输中的最佳路线选择等问题。     

Evaluation of oceanic transport parameters using transient tracers from observations and model output

A method is presented to find the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model’s estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. The method uses a mixture model of an assumed form of the TTD, an inverse Gaussian (IG), and an established Bayesian statistical method. All known significant sources of uncertainty are propagated to arrive at estimates of two oceanic transport parameters associated with the IG TTD, the mean age (Γ) and either the half-variance (${\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$) or the Peclet number ($\mathit{Pe}={\mathrm{\Gamma }}^2/{\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$). It is found that the uncertainties on Γ do not overlap zero in most locations using only CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. However, the uncertainty on the other IG parameter does not overlap zero in only a few locations. With the inclusion of another transient tracer (³He/³H), the uncertainty on this other IG parameter does not overlap zero in just a few additional locations in the deep North Atlantic Ocean. Neither a single- nor mixture-IG representation is adequate for representing the full TTD in the ocean, particularly in the Southern Ocean.Differences between the IG parameters estimated using the model’s tracers as data (BayesPOP) and those estimated using tracer observations as data (BayesObs) provide information about the sources of model biases, and give a more nuanced picture than can be found by comparing the simulated CFCs with observed CFCs. Using the differences between each of the oceanic transport parameters from BayesObs and those from BayesPOP with and without a constant Pe assumption along each of the hydrographic cross-sections considered here, it is found that the model’s eddy mixing biases often lead to larger model errors than the model’s mean advection time biases. It is also found that mean advection time biases in the model can be statistically significant at the 95% level where mode water is found in the Southern Ocean.     

Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning: The next steps

Species distribution models (SDMs) offer great potential for inclusion into the toolbox of today's marine environmental manager, especially with regard to marine conservation and planning. The application of SDMs in the marine environment over recent years has been varied but there are still relatively few examples in comparison with terrestrial application, and this is especially true in deep-sea marine ecosystems. This short article builds upon two recent review articles concerning the application of species distribution modelling studies in the marine realm, offering additional practical considerations for discussion. Recommendations for progressing the improved application of SDMs to support marine conservation planning are given, including combining model outputs with other data layers, metadata standards and model error. SDMs have both an urgent and long term contribution to make to marine conservation planning globally, and it is hoped that this article, in combination with developing research on marine SDMs, will contribute to some much needed discussion and inform best practice and new research to enable these models to be of greater use to marine managers.     

从科普插图看托勒密的地心说

古希腊著名天文学家托勒密一生著作很多,他和他的学说在天文学发展中无疑占有重要地位,其中最为著名、影响甚广的,似乎是被诬蔑为"臭名昭著"的"地心说"。不过,在中国的天文学科普书籍中,作者注意到有两种不同版本的"地心说"插图,两者反映的科学含义有很大差别。试图从这两种不同版本的插图来探讨"地心说"为什么能够统治那么多年。     

破裂岩石的电子发射与压缩原子模型

本文根据压缩原子模型提出岩石在高压及破裂过程中产生自由电子的一种可能机制。根据这种机制可在半定量水平上较为满意地解释岩石破裂中的电子发射、光辐射和岩石的爆炸式破裂。     

覆岩变形破坏电阻率响应特征的模拟实验研究

地下采矿活动引起上覆岩层移动变形和破坏 ,对覆岩变形破坏进行监测 ,可以为采矿设计和安全生产提供可靠的技术保障 .本文从对应于实际地层介质的相似材料物理模型实验出发 ,探讨了模拟实验的相似条件和可行性 ,进行了采矿活动不同时期覆岩电阻率特征变化的动态测试 ,结合实验数据进行反演计算 ,最后获得覆岩变形破坏与电阻率变化的响应关系 .实验结果表明 ,覆岩变形和破坏必然造成地层介质电性特征的变化 ,不同破坏带的破坏程度不同 ,电阻率变化响应特征不一样 ,两者是一一对应的 .利用电阻率方法监测覆岩变形和破坏是完全可行的 .     

地磁场长期变化的自洽正态统计模型

从地磁场时间变化尺度可分的理论考虑和观测事实出发,建立地磁场Reynolds分解,强调地磁场时均部分和长期变化部分均包含所有的多极子分量;重新解释Constabe和Paker关于规一化Gduss系数的统计结果,从而将地磁场长期变化自洽正态模型自洽化．在这一结构最简单的统计模型中,地磁角度要素和总强度的统计分布均为非正态．地磁场方向及其等价表示虚偶极磁矩方向服从广义Fisher分布,可以解释地磁场方向和虚磁偶极矩方向的椭圆分布长轴大致正交的观测事实．模型的VGP角散布不能解释古地磁观测,意味着时均场中显著存在非轴向偶极子分量．解析结果加强了Egbert关于VGP路径优势经度为不均匀采样所致的推论．