Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.     

长乐-南澳构造带白垩纪“片麻状”浆混杂岩的成岩机制研究——以泉州肖厝岩体为例

闽东南长乐南澳构造带沿线出露大面积白垩纪花岗岩岩基,普遍存在岩浆混合现象,肖厝侵入岩是其中的代表性岩体.野外观察和化学分析表明,肖厝侵入岩由二长花岗岩和辉长闪长岩、以及该两种混合端员岩浆混合形成的闪长质-花岗闪长质-花岗质过渡岩类组成;岩石总体富碱、富LREE和LILE、贫HFSE; A/CNK=0.82～1.05,属准铝质微过铝质钙碱性系列,部分受流体交代的岩石A/CNK值可升高至1.69;岩浆混合过程中发生了元素的选择性富集/亏损和同位素组成的均一化,（87Sr/86Sr）为0.7055～0.7061,εNd（t）为-1.9～-3.0.锆石年代学研究表明,肖厝侵入岩的岩浆混合开始于约136Ma,于121Ma时初始侵位于下地壳.结合区域地质特征,分析了肖厝侵入岩的成岩机制,提出岩体侵位早于长乐-南澳构造带的变质变形作用,两者不存在成因上的联系;118～～100Ma时该构造带曾发生过深层次地壳逆冲推覆,使形成于中—下地壳的韧性剪切带和肖厝侵入岩共同快速上升至地表.     

Monitoring and methods to analyse the groundwater quality degradation risk in coastal karstic aquifers (Apulia,Southern Italy)

A multi-methodological approach based on monitoring and spatio-temporal analysis of groundwater quality changes is proposed. The presented tools are simple, quick and cost-effective to give service to all sorts of users. The chief purpose of the monitoring network is the detection of the piezometric or potenziometric level in the aquifer. The spatial and multi-temporal analysis of usual chemical and physical data provides both an assessment of the spatial vulnerability of the aquifer to seawater intrusion, defining a salinity threshold between fresh groundwater and brackish groundwater and of the water quality trend in terms of salinity. The evaluation of the salinity trend or of salinity-correlated parameters highlights the effects of groundwater mismanagement. The multiparameter logging provides a rapid groundwater quality classification for each well. The whole approach allows evaluating the effects of current management criteria and designing more appropriate management targets. The Apulian karstic coastal aquifers have been selected as a case study (Southern Italy). Three types of aquifer zones can be distinguished: (1) areas with low vulnerability to seawater intrusion, (2) areas with high vulnerability and (3) areas with variable vulnerability in which the salt degradation largely depends on the ability to manage the well discharge. The water quality degradation caused by seawater intrusion appears to be a combined effect of an anomalous succession of drought periods observed from about 1980 onwards and increased groundwater pumping, particularly during drought periods. A management criterion based on aquifer zones is proposed.     

鄂东鸡冠嘴矿区成矿岩体锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年及其意义

鄂东鸡冠嘴铜金(铁)矿床位于阳新岩体西北端,与铜绿山铜金矿床毗邻。矿区成矿岩体主要岩性为石英正长闪长玢岩、石英闪长岩、闪长岩和安山玢岩。其中石英正长闪长玢岩与成矿关系密切。在前人矿床地质特征研究基础上,笔者对成矿岩体进行了锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年,获得石英正长闪长玢岩和闪长岩的年龄为146±2Ma(95%可信度,MSWD=1.3)和132±4Ma(95%可信度,MSWD=3)。测定结果表明,区内石英正长闪长玢岩和闪长岩分属燕山早期和燕山晚期岩浆活动的产物。鉴于矿体在空间上主要赋存于岩体内外接触带及层间破碎带中,推测成矿作用应略晚于石英正长闪长玢岩(146±2Ma)而早于闪长岩侵位的时间(132±4Ma),这与前人获得长江中下游铜铁金成矿带代表性矿床的辉钼矿Re-Os模式年龄分布在134.7～143Ma的研究结果一致。     

长江河口青草沙水库最长连续不宜取水天数

为解决上海日益增长的用水需求, 保障淡水资源安全, 需要建设长江河口避咸蓄淡特大型水库。本文应用改进的三维长江河口盐水入侵数值模式, 采用2007和2008年10个水文站盐度资料对模式进行验证, 计算青草沙水库最长不宜取水天数。本文以径流量特枯的1978—1979年作为水文计算年, 考虑三峡工程、南水北调东线工程和沿江引排水对大通实测逐日径流量的修正, 考虑潮汐、风应力和混合等作用。根据2003年地形计算得出青草沙水库的最长连续不宜取水天数为68天, 这个水库设计的重要参数已在水库建设中采用。根据2008年地形计算得出青草沙水库的最长连续不宜取水天数为54天, 已被水库调度采用。2003年至2008年北支上段河势发生了明显变化, 导致北支盐水倒灌减弱, 因此这期间的最长不宜取水天数减少。     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

岩墙厚度对成矿作用的约束:以石湖金矿为例

根据透岩浆流体成矿理论,岩浆体是含矿流体的通道而不是来源,因而估算含矿流体注入岩浆体的能力是评价高位侵入体成矿潜力的有效方法。文中利用一维传热模型计算了石湖金矿区三类代表性岩墙(花岗斑岩、石英闪长玢岩和辉绿岩)不同厚度条件下的冷却时间尺度,同时估算了岩浆冷却过程中的粘度变化速率。假定岩浆侵位于约6 km,且完全固结时含矿流体才不能有效注入,石湖金矿区三类代表性岩墙的最小临界成矿厚度分别为3345 m(花岗斑岩)、822 m(石英闪长玢岩)和102 m(辉绿岩)。模拟结果与石湖金矿区矿体的产状一致,暗示模拟结果具有较强的实用价值。结合岩墙长度/宽度比值,进一步估算致矿侵入体的最小临界出露面积分别约为312～1 561 m2(玄武质岩体)、0014～0068 km2(石英闪长玢岩)和0011～0034 km2(花岗斑岩)。估算结果为野外地质找矿提供了一个定性的标准,对快速资源勘查具有参考价值。     

新疆东天山地区星星峡群的解体及地质意义

新疆东天山地区星星峡一带的原星星峡群为一套岩性复杂、变质程度差异很大的变质岩系, 在该区进行的1:50000区调工作中, 通过详细的地表调查和地层剖面测量, 并参考了相关变质侵入体的同位素年龄后认为, 根据岩石组合、变质程度、同位素年龄等地质标志, 可将其初步解体为大致形成于晚太古代—古元古代的天湖岩群(Ar₃—Pt₁T.)和长城纪星星峡岩群(ChX.)两套时代不同的岩群。该岩群的解体和区域对比表明, 中天山星星峡一带和塔里木北缘库鲁克塔格一带的前南华系基底应该是一致的, 属于统一的塔里木北缘隆起带。      

基于遗传神经网络的入侵特征选择模型

针对高维数据包含的不相关和冗余特征影响检测方法性能的问题,提出了基于遗传神经网络入侵特征选择模型.该模型在传统的遗传神经网的输入层和隐含层之间增加特征选择层,并在特征选择层与输入层间设置连接开关,如果开关合上,则该特征被选中;否则为放弃.实验结果表明,该模型在保持原有信息完整性的同时,能有效减少冗余特性;在保证检测准确率的前提下,有效提高系统的检测速度.     

滕县煤田七五井田岩浆岩分布特征及对煤层煤质的影响

以七五井田为研究对象,通过对区内地质构造展布特征、岩浆岩分布特征进行分析研究,总结得出七五井田岩浆侵入规律,进一步弄清了岩浆侵入对煤层的破坏程度,并对岩浆岩对煤层煤质的影响程度进行了评价,为矿井生产过程中的开拓布置工作提供了依据。