地下开采引发地面沉陷的未确知聚类预测方法

对未确知聚类预测法进行优化,并将其应用于开采地面沉陷的预测研究。采用开采地面沉陷的实测数据按最大沉陷量进行分类,利用各分类影响因素的均值表示各分类中心,并确定各影响因素的未确知测度函数。由待测对象指标的综合未确知测度与各分类指标的未确知测度间的距离来确定待预测对象所属等级,给出了预测值的计算公式。经计算验证,该方法的正确率为75％。但在实际应用中,为了保证地表建筑设施等更加安全,允许预测级高判,则正确率可达100％。针对某铁矿一观测点进行预测,并与实测数据比较,结果表明,未确知聚类预测的结果是令人满意的,为开采地面沉陷的预测提供了一种新思路。     

黄河长江珠江三角洲近30年海平面上升趋势及2030年上升量预测

黄河、长江和珠江三角洲由于地面沉降等原因,过去30年的相对海平面上升率远大于全球或全国海平面上升率（约1.5mm/a）。下一世纪,根据IPCC的最佳估计,至2030年全球海平面将上升18cm。我国三大三角洲,根据目前地面沉降情况、发展趋势及政府的控制措施,估计2030年相对海平面上升量老黄河三角洲（天津地区）为60cm,现代黄河三角洲（山东省东营市地区）为30—35cm,长江三角洲（上海地区）为30—40cm,珠江三角洲20—25cm,以上估计数可供沿海有关决策部门制订今后长远发展规划及拟订政策时的参考。     

人工神经网络在天津市区地面沉降预测中的应用

在分析天津市区地面沉降特点的基础上，结合人工神经网络原理，选择1961-1980年的天津市区降水量、地下水开采量、前年沉降量、固结度作为训练样本的输入量，以这20年的地面沉降量作为输出量，用贝叶斯正则化算法训练BP网络，得到沉降的仿真模型。并把1981-1993年的资料用来进行预测检验，结果表明这是一种比较理想的地面沉降预测方法。最后在不同的降水量保证率下，预测了到2010年天津市区地面沉降的情况。     

基于多源数据的山西省采煤沉陷区调查监测体系构建北大核心CSCD

为助力健全自然资源监测体制、落实生态文明建设各项要求、提供优质高效的用地保障服务,采煤沉陷区调查监测意义重大。本文基于多源遥感数据,结合传统测量和现代遥感技术,构建了山西省采煤沉陷区调查监测体系。研究结果表明,本文基本摸清了山西省采煤沉陷区分布情况,其总面积为6500 km^(2),与山西省矿区及采空区分布高度重叠;土地利用以林地、耕地及草地为主;土地损毁以轻、中度为主。受采煤沉陷的影响,拟搬迁村庄1221个,仍有400多个村庄未搬迁。     

蒙脱石脱水作用与地面沉降关系的研究展望

粘土矿物在地面沉降中的作用、粘土矿物的脱水作用对地面沉降的影响等日益成为评价和防治地质、工程、水文、环境等问题的关键,也一直是相关领域的研究难题而逐渐引起高度重视。本文回顾了蒙脱石层间水性质、层间水化膨胀和脱水收缩的影响因素,提出蒙脱石层间的固溶体特征,在总结蒙脱石脱水作用与地面沉降关系研究成果的基础上,提出了用蒙脱石脱水作用研究地面沉降的思路。最后讨论了用蒙脱石的脱水作用研究地面滞后沉降及沉降趋势预测的可能性。     

地基土沉降对复合地基影响的三维数值模拟

通过对复合地基在正常使用条件下和地基土沉降后的三维数值模拟,研究了复合地基由地下水位下降引起的地基土沉陷后的沉降、桩体摩阻力分布和桩身轴力分布的变化。分析表明：随着地基土沉降的增加,加固桩体和基础的沉降加大,中性点位置逐渐下降,桩身轴力有所增大;在加强桩中,中心桩的中性点最低,边桩次之,角桩最高;随着地基土沉降的增加,各桩中性点位置差异逐渐减小,桩体上部负摩阻力作用的桩身长度更长,负摩阻力值逐渐增大。     

Reservoir sediments – a witness of mining and industrial development (Malter Reservoir, eastern Erzgebirge, Germany)

The Malter Reservoir is situated about 30 km south of Dresden (eastern Germany) in a historical mining area of the eastern Erzgebirge. It was built in 1913 for the protection from floodwaters, droughts and for generating electricity. The river Rote Wei?eritz is the main source of clastic input into the lake. Geochemical and sedimentological data of gravity-and piston-cores, recovered from the deepest point of the lake, document the environmental history of the drainage area since 1963. ¹³⁷Cs dating gives an average sedimentation rate of ∼2.9 cm/year. Within the whole core, heavy metals are strongly enriched (parentheses refer to enrichment factors as compared with average shale): cadmium (290), silver (140), bismuth (90), antimony (25), lead (21), zinc (14), tin (13), uranium (9), tungsten (9), molybdenum (5), copper (4), thallium (3) and chromium (2). Enrichments are detectable for the whole registered time-period of 81 years. Peaks of up to 27 mg/kg silver, 37 mg/kg bismuth, 91 mg/kg cadmium, 410 mg/kg chromium, 240 mg/kg copper, 20 mg/kg molybdenum, 14000 mg/kg phosphorus, 740 mg/kg lead, 6,5 mg/kg antimony, 74 mg/kg tin, 52 mg/kg tungsten and 1900 mg/kg zinc reflect local events caused by human impact. Inputs from different pollution sources at different times are represented by highly variable elemental concentrations and ratios within the core. High pH values within the water and the sediment column, the large adsorption capacity of the fine-grained C_org.-rich sediment, and the presence of low Eh-values and sulphide ions in the sediment prevent the remobilisation of the toxic elements. Erosion of these contaminated sediments during floods, channel flows or resuspension during removal of the sediments may lead to a downstream transfer of pollutants. Contents of P and C_org., as well as diatom abundance, indicate a change from oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions in the lake during ∼1940–1950. This was mainly caused by high agricultural activity in the drainage area. Reduced contents of Cu, Zn, Cd and Cr since the reunification of East and West Germany are obviously caused by increasing environmental protection measures, such as wastewater purification and especially the closing of contaminating industries. Revision received: 23 September 1999 · Accepted: 17 December 1999     

深层地热水开采与地面沉降的关系研究

本文根据天津塘沽区深层地沉观测标观测到的地面沉降数据,分析了深层地下热水开采对地面沉降的影响比例.在分析地热水开采引起地面沉降机理的基础上,通过统计回归方法建立了深层孔隙型地热水开采量与地面沉降量的相关模型;提出了进行地热尾水回灌和建立深层沉降监测网以加强综合研究的防治对策.     

Impact of mining activities on soils and sediments at the historical mining area in Podljubelj,NW Slovenia

The abandoned Hg mine in Podljubelj was in operation with interceptions from 1557 to 1902. The entire operating period yielded about 110 000 tons of ore, from which 360 tons of Hg was produced. The objective of the research project was to establish the contents and spatial distribution of Hg in soils and stream sediments in the vicinity of the mine. On an area of 88 ha the soil was sampled in a 100 × 100 m grid. Two soil horizons (0–5 cm and 20–30 cm) were sampled in order to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic Hg sources. It was established that on an area of about 9 ha Hg content in soil exceeds The New Dutchlist action value for Hg (10 mg/kg). Total Hg concentrations in soil samples vary between 0.17 and 719 mg/kg, with a mean of 3.0 mg/kg. Mercury contents in stream sediments range from 0.065 to 1.4 mg/kg, with a mean of 0.64 mg/kg. The highest determined value in soils was found in the area around the former roasting furnace, where the ore was processed. Increased Hg concentrations were also found on the mine waste dump (108 mg/kg). Mercury contents in soils generally decrease with soil profile depth and with the distance from the mine and from the roasting furnace location. Mercury also appears in higher concentrations along the road that runs through the valley, which results from the use of Hg-bearing ore residues in road construction. The average enrichment factor (EF) of Hg in topsoil with respect to subsoil is 3.3. Calculated enrichment factors show higher values also for Cd (3.2), Pb (2.7), Ca (2.4) and P (1.9). The average enrichment factor of Hg in topsoil with regard to the established Slovenian soil averages (EF_slo) is 19. EF_slo of other determined chemical elements do not exceed 3.0.     

基于基坑降水优化设计的地面沉降数值模拟

深基坑降水引起的地面沉降给工程和周边环境带来很大的危害,以天津地铁 XX站深基坑为例,通过使用有限差分模拟软件Processing Modflow建立三维地下水渗流场与地面沉降耦合模型,利用抽水试验数据反演识别场区的水文地质参数,对基坑降水对周边环境的影响进行预测。结合施工要求,本着在规定时间内用最少的抽水量完成降水要求,并对基坑周围造成的环境影响最小的原则,对基坑降水进行优化设计。