The fisherly imagination: The promise of geographical approaches to marine management

The management of the sea has increased exponentially in the last half-century, and different academic disciplines have been vital in shaping this management. Human geography, despite its explicit focus on the human–environment nexus, has so far had little impact on human relations with the sea. Based on empirical research conducted in England and Scotland, we argue that human geography is uniquely placed to offer effective solutions to marine resource management problems, and that geographers have the potential to offer key insights into how human populations can best interact with the living seas. Three of the most important current scholarly ‘imaginations’ of the sea, and the policies they inform (economics and market-based management, conservation biology and area based protection, and anthropology and community management), are outlined. A potential ‘geographical imagination’ of the sea, drawing on key themes in contemporary scholarship is then presented, and grounded in empirical research. It is argued that human–ocean relations should be a key feature of geographical research agendas.     

Origin and quantitative source assessment of deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift,Tarim Basin

A large amount of deep oil has been discovered in the Tazhong Uplift, Tarim Basin whereas the oil source is still controversial. An integrated geochemical approach was utilized to unravel the characteristics, origin and alteration of the deep oils. This study showed that the Lower Cambrian oil from well ZS1C (

_1x) was featured by small or trace amounts of biomarkers, unusually high concentration of dibenzothiophenes (DBTs), high δ³⁴S of DBTs and high δ¹³C value of n-alkanes. These suggest a close genetic relationship with the Cambrian source rocks and TSR alteration. On the contrary, the Middle Cambrian oils from well ZS1 (

_2a) were characterized by low δ¹³C of n-alkanes and relatively high δ³⁴S of individual sulfur compounds and a general “V” shape of steranes, indicating a good genetic affinity with the Middle–Upper Ordovician source rocks. The middle Cambrian salt rock separating the oils was suggested to be one of the factors responsible for the differentiation. It was suggested that most of the deep oils in the Tazhong Uplift were mixed source based on biomarkers and carbon isotope, which contain TSR altered oil in varied degree. The percentage of the oils contributed by the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician was in the range of 19–100% (average 57%) controlled by several geological and geochemical events. Significant variations in the δ³⁴S values for individual compounds in the oils were observed suggesting a combination of different extent of TSR and thermal maturation alterations. The unusually high DBTs concentrations in the Tazhong-4 oilfield suggested as a result of mixing with the ZS1C oil (

_1x) and Lower Ordovician oils based on δ³⁴S values of DBT. This study will enhance our understanding of both deep and shallow oil sources in the Tazhong Uplift and clarify the formation mechanisms of the unusually high DBTs oils in the region.     

2000—2016年中国再分析辐射资料与观测值对比

大气再分析辐射资料克服了传统的地面观测资料缺乏和台站分布不均的缺点,以及卫星遥感反演算法的适用性和传感器精度等问题,采用不同的模型对太阳辐射状况进行动态模拟,并结合实际观测数据对模型进行校正,建立了长时间序列和不同分辨率的数据产品。尽管目前再分析辐射产品评估已经有较多的研究,但是针对我国长时间序列太阳辐射变化的不同再分析辐射资料间的精度对比评估较少,尤其缺乏不同再分析辐射资料空间差异性研究。选取2000—2016年NCEP/DOE、ERA-Interim、GLDASV2.1三种不同空间分辨率的再分析辐射资料,通过对比三种资料与我国辐射观测数据的差异,对三种再分析辐射资料在空间分布和时间序列的适用性进行详细的精确度评估。结果表明,从年资料对比来看,2000—2016年中国区域NCEP辐射资料显著高于其他三种资料,与观测值平均偏差约为1 342.2 MJ/（m2a）,东部地区高估现象严重。ERA辐射资料平均偏差为681.8 MJ/（m2a）,中国西部、华北及华中地区高估严重。GLDAS辐射资料平均偏差最小为130.2 MJ/（m2a）。从月资料对比来看,三种再分析数据在夏秋季月份的精度比冬春季月份要高。冬半年,三种再分析资料在海拔>1 000 m的东北大兴安岭、西北和云南等地相对误差低于海拔 < 1 000 m的华北、华中、华东、西南和华南地区;但夏半年这种分布现象不明显。      

基于深度学习和雷达观测的华南短临预报精度评估

利用最新的深度学习算法,即卷积长短期记忆(Convolution Long-Short Term Memory)神经网络,构建基于深度学习的人工智能短临预报系统,以广州地区2019年3-5月雷达观测的数据为输入进行训练,然后进行短期1h内的降水预报。利用常用的统计评分指标(探测率POD、误报率FAR、临界成功指数CSI,相关系数CC)检验模型。结果表明,预报结果与实际观测的相关系数在1h内预报均保持在0.6以上,在1h内预报探测率均保持在80%以上,临界成功指数在降水强度为10mm·h^-1时,基本保持在60%,误报率均小于40%。     

Evaluation of Agricultural Climatic Resource Utilization During Spring Maize Cultivation in Northeast China Under Climate Change

Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources.     

Climate mitigation finance across developing countries: what are the major determinants?

This empirical study assesses the relationship between the characteristics of developing countries and the amount of official climate mitigation finance inflow. A two-part model and robustness checks were used to analyse 1998–2010 Rio Marker data on 180 developing countries. The results show that developing countries with higher CO₂ intensity, larger carbon sinks, lower per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and good governance tend to be selected as recipients of climate mitigation finance, and receive more of it. CO₂ emission is not used as a determinant of mitigation finance until the actual financial disbursement. Poverty aid tends to be allocated to countries with low CO₂ emissions, possibly to avoid diverting aid from poorer developing countries. However, such a diversion is unavoidable if the share of mitigation finance in climate finance and in overall official development assistance (ODA) continues to escalate. This study calls for an equitable allocation of total ODA mitigation and adaptation finance in addition to the 0.7% ODA/gross national income target, and for transparent criteria and the verification of reporting on the allocation of mitigation finance.     

Equity and efficiency in adaptation finance: initial experiences of the Adaptation Fund

The Adaptation Fund, established under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), has now been approving funding for adaptation projects for more than two years. Given its particular institutional status and specific focus on concrete adaptation, it is particularly relevant to study the initial experiences of it for any future upscaling of international adaptation finance, despite the fact that its own resources are getting scarce. Alternative rationales for allocating funds, based on equity and efficiency concerns at both international and subnational levels, are here tested against the criteria and priorities of the Fund and decisions made on project approval. It is concluded that equity concerns appear to be the primary motivation and that allocation is de facto made between states rather than by considering inequity between subnational communities. However, the currency of vulnerability for determining equitable outcomes in allocation decisions has not been formalized, despite its central importance to the Fund. Instead, uniform national caps have been introduced. Such an equality approach can be considered inequitable. Finally, it is noted that although the Adaptation Fund Board has continuously developed its proposal review practices and adopted a learning-by-doing approach, it should provide both a further specification of the evaluation criteria and a compilation of best practices from approved proposals, and moreover enhance the transparency of the review process, all of which would clarify its core priorities for current and future project proponents.     

Living with limits: growth,resources, and climate change

Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity.     

The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO₂ concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.