Qualification of residential land from the viewpoint of liquefaction vulnerability

While the assessment of liquefaction potential by using borehole data has a long history since 1970s, its target users are still limited to professional engineers and experts. This situation is not favored by ordinary people who are seriously concerned with the reliability and preservation of their real estates during strong earthquakes. The demand of the people is that the liquefaction vulnerability of their residential land is precisely and clearly but concisely demonstrated so that people without engineering background can understand the real extent of risk. In this regard, the authors, under the governmental support, proposed a simple manifestation of the extent of liquefaction vulnerability of private houses in terms of the thickness of the surface unliquefiable crust and the vertical weighted average of the factor of safety or its equivalence. This achievement was made possible by introducing the ageing effects of soil on liquefaction resistance in addition to using geotechnical data base of subsoil conditions. During the work, it was found that existing borehole data may not be fully reliable and that experts who have sufficient knowledge of the local subsoil should assess the vulnerability. This requirement is satisfied by the qualification of special engineers that has been initiated by the Japanese Geotechnical Society in conjunction with several other institutions. The proposed method of subsoil qualification is used not only for individual residential land but also for regional hazard assessment.     

Determination of background concentrations of hydrochemical parameters and water quality assessment in the Akhuryan River Basin (Armenia)

The determination of background values of hydrochemical parameters, to distinguish between natural concentration and anthropogenically-influenced concentrations, is highly relevant. In presented study, to estimate the background values of hydrochemical parameters in Akhuryan River Basin, log-normal probability functions on the hydrochemical parameters concentrations was applied. The study is carried out on the basis of hydrochemical data of surface water quality monitoring for the period of 2010–2013. This study highlights the usefulness of application of site-specific background concentrations for the evaluation, interpretation of surface water quality and for determination of pollution sources.     

祁连山中部亚高山草地土壤呼吸及其组分研究

草地碳通量组分的区分及其与环境因子的关系是了解生态系统碳循环的重要环节。于2013年6-8月在祁连山中部亚高山草地开展了土壤呼吸及其组分研究,利用根去除法区分根系自养呼吸和土壤微生物异养呼吸。采用LI-8100土壤碳通量系统测定生态系统呼吸、土壤呼吸及土壤微生物呼吸速率,同时测定10cm处土壤温度和5cm处土壤湿度。分析呼吸速率和环境因子的昼夜变化动态,自养呼吸和异养呼吸速率占土壤呼吸速率的比例,呼吸速率与土壤温湿度及与生物量的关系。结果表明：生态系统呼吸、土壤呼吸和土壤微生物呼吸速率的日变化趋势均呈单峰型曲线,具体表现为生态系统呼吸（11.07μmol · m^-2 ·s^-1）>土壤呼吸（6.31μmol·m^-2·s^-1）>异养呼吸（4.92μmol·m^-2 ·s^-1）>自养呼吸（1.39μmol·m^-2·s^-1）;自养和异养呼吸速率分别占土壤呼吸速率的22.03%和77.97%;呼吸速率与10cm处土壤温度呈指数相关,Q₁₀值排序为：土壤微生物呼吸（Q₁₀=3.74）>土壤呼吸（Q₁₀=2.76）>生态系统呼吸（Q₁₀=2.49）,呼吸速率与5cm处土壤湿度呈显著线性负相关关系,双因素模型明显提高了呼吸速率与温湿度的相关性,能够分别解释土壤微生物呼吸,土壤呼吸和生态系统呼吸速率变异的89%,79%和62%;地上生物量和呼吸速率之间存在显著线性正相关关系,地下生物量与呼吸速率之间呈二次回归关系（P=0.01）,未刈割草地呼吸速率大于刈割草地土壤呼吸速率,刈割一年的土壤呼吸速率大于刈割两年的土壤呼吸速率。     

Clarifying the distal to proximal tephrochronology of the Millennium (B–Tm) eruption,Changbaishan Volcano,northeast China

Tephra dispersed during the Millennium eruption (ME), Changbaishan Volcano, NE China provides one of the key stratigraphic links between Asia and Greenland for the synchronization of palaeoenvironmental records. However, controversy surrounds proximal-distal tephra correlations because (a) the proposed proximal correlatives of the distal ME tephra (i.e. B–Tm) lack an unequivocal chronostratigraphic context, and (b) the ME tephra deposits have not been chemically characterized for a full spectrum of element using grain-specific techniques. Here we present grain-specific glass chemistry, including for the first time, single grain trace element data, for a composite proximal sequence and a distal tephra from Lake Kushu, northern Japan (ca. 1100 km away from Changbaishan). We demonstrate a robust proximal-distal correlation and that the Kushu tephra is chemically associated with the ME/B–Tm. We propose that three of the proximal pyroclastic fall units were erupted as part of the ME. The radiocarbon chronology of the Kushu sedimentary record has been utilised to generate a Bayesian age-depth model, providing an age for the Kushu tephra which is consistent with high resolution ages determined for the eruption and therefore supports our geochemical correlation. Two further Bayesian age-depth models were independently constructed each incorporating one of two ice-core derived ages for the B–Tm tephra, providing Bayesian modelled ages of 933–949 and 944–947 cal AD (95.4%) for the Kushu tephra. The high resolution ice-core tephra ages imported into the deposition models help test and ultimately constrain the radiocarbon chronology in this interval of the Lake Kushu sedimentary record. The observed geochemical diversity between proximal and distal ME tephra deposits clearly evidences the interaction of two compositionally distinct magma batches during this caldera forming eruption.     

基于GIS的白龙江流域甘肃段滑坡易发性评价

在甘肃省白龙江流域地质灾害资料收集及现场调查的基础上, 统计分析了该区滑坡发育与地层岩性、坡度、坡向、高程、断裂、植被等因素之间的关系, 建立了白龙江流域滑坡易发性评价指标体系。采用基于GIS的层次分析法评价模型, 完成了滑坡易发性分区评价, 将研究区滑坡按易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和极低易发区, 其中, 高易发区占研究区总面积的13.59%, 主要分布在断裂带、白龙江两侧以及软弱岩土体分布的区域; 中易发区占27.85%;主要分布在白龙江支流以及主要道路两侧的一定范围内; 低易发区占33.09%, 主要分布在海拔相对较高、植被覆盖度较高、基本上无断裂带通过的区域; 其余区域为极低易发区, 占25.46%。对比分析显示评价结果与实际滑坡发育情况吻合, 可以较好地反映区内滑坡灾害发育的总体特征。      

海岸带土地发展潜力评价——以杭州湾南岸为例

土地潜力评价是编制土地利用规划的前提,把握土地的潜在经济效能是城镇化、工业化快速推进背景下土地资源合理配置的重要命题。本文甄选自然条件、生态敏感性、经济发展和空间结构指标建立了土地发展潜力评价体系,分别采用模糊综合评价法与网络层次分析法赋权指标体系与计算权重,测度发展潜力值并划分了杭州湾南岸余姚、慈溪和镇海的海岸带土地发展潜力区。结果显示:(1)低发展潜力区面积为237.14 km²,占比为17.73%;中发展潜力区面积为323.08 km²,占比为24.15%;高发展潜力区面积为473.34 km²,占比为35.38%;极高发展潜力区面积为304.27 km²,比例为22.74%。(2)按照地类的级别面积分析,交通运输用地和自然保留地面积在极高潜力区中达到峰值,呈由高向低等级面积递减态势;耕地、其他农用地、城乡建设用地和其他建设用地在高潜力区中占比最大,且基本布局于极高、高潜力区;园地、河流水面、水利建设用地集中于中潜力区,而沿海滩涂与林地基本分布于低、中潜力区。(3)余姚、慈溪和镇海海岸带土地发展潜力分区呈现不同特点,余姚属于待提升型,慈溪为均衡发展型,镇海是高质发展潜力型。     

基于地理探测器的大熊猫生境适宜度评价模型及验证

动物生境适宜度评价对于野生动物生境保护十分重要。基于物种活动点来建模的生态位模型是目前应用最广泛的动物生境评价方法,但该方法不能直接表达生境适宜度与环境因子间具有生态学意义的数量关系。本文以雅安地区为例,提出一种新的大熊猫（Ailuropoda melanoleuca）生境适宜度评价方法,选取海拔、坡度、坡向、地形指数、距水源距离、植被类型、主食竹及距公路距离8个环境因子,引入地理探测器,在分别基于MAXENT模型和层次分析法（The Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP）所构建生境适宜度模型的基础上,通过4个地理探测器（风险探测器、因子探测器、生态探测器和交互作用探测器）探寻大熊猫生境与各环境因子间的关系以及环境因子对大熊猫生境的影响机理,并将其预测结果与单一MAXENT模型和AHP法进行对比。结果表明：（1）AHP、AHP-Geogdetector、MAXENT和MAXENT-Geogdetector模型总体评价精度分别为85.6%、86.5%、91.3%和94.2%,kappa系数分别为0.699、0.718、0.821和0.882,AUC值分别为0.902、0.928、0.949和0.966,模型所预测的适宜和较适宜区与实际分布区重叠比分别为63.66%、61.30%、76.70%和90.10%,说明AHP-Geogdetector和MAXENT-Geogdetector模型精度均比相应的单一模型有所提高,且MAXENT-Geogdetector模型精度最高;（2）基于地理探测器的大熊猫生境适宜度评价模型能以“生境适宜度和环境因子间具有生态学意义的数量关系”的形式直接体现环境因子对动物生境利用的生态学作用,具有较好的生态学可解释性。因此,用地理探测器进行大熊猫生境适宜度评价具有较好的可行性。     

基于Bayes理论的星间链路自主定轨误差评估方法

针对导航星座自主运行期间因缺乏外部基准而导致自主定轨结果不能得到有效评估的问题,提出一种基于Bayes理论的自主定轨结果评估方法。一方面充分考虑定轨误差的先验统计特性,以提供先验位置基准;另一方面以卡尔曼滤波中定轨协方差的迹作为定轨URE的表征量,解决了自主定轨中对定轨误差没有观测信息的问题。利用自主定轨的仿真数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明,对于单颗卫星,在24 d内,由该方法得到的URE估计误差不超过±0.5 m,验证了该方法的可行性。     

测站间高差对短时段GPS基线解算的影响

基于美国CORS网数据,分别选取平均基线长度和站间高差均不相同的6个GPS实验网,使用GAMIT/GLOBK软件,从基线较差、基线重复性、NRMS值以及解算中误差等方面分析站间高差对短时段（4 h）GPS基线解算的影响及削弱这些影响的方法。结果得出,当测站间高差大于100 m时,如果不估计对流层参数,即使是短基线也会使解算基线在高程方向的偏差达到1 cm,而对平面分量影响很小。此时,必须通过估计天顶方向的对流层参数来削弱其影响,才能保证最终解算的基线结果在高程方向的误差小于1 cm。