基于PMIP3和CMIP5模拟结果的过去千年特征时段北极涛动的变率特征及成因分析

利用参与第三次古气候模式评估比较计划（Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III,PMIP3）过去千年气候模拟试验以及参与第五次耦合模式评估比较计划（Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5）全强迫历史情景试验的9个地球系统模式模拟试验结果,对过去千年3个特征时段（中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期）北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation, AO）的变率及成因进行了分析。通过与NCEP再分析资料的对比发现,模式能够较好地模拟出AO的空间模态及年际变化周期,且大部分模式能够模拟出过去50年AO的增强趋势。过去千年3个特征时段中,不同模式对中世纪气候异常期AO位相的模拟并不一致,但大部分模式显示小冰期AO基本呈现负位相,而现代暖期则表现为显著的正位相,与重建结果一致。基于多模式集合平均的机制分析表明,中世纪气候异常期北极地区海平面气压变化不显著,小冰期北极地区海平面气压显著偏正,现代暖期海平面气压显著偏负,这与现代暖期北极温度偏高而小冰期北极温度偏低有关。过去千年中,小冰期和现代暖期的AO变率分别受自然外强迫和人为外强迫的影响。     

松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷下白垩统营城组火山机构类型与喷发模式研究

火山岩油气藏已成为我国东部中、新生代陆内裂谷盆地内一种重要的油气藏类型。松辽盆地北部徐家围子断陷营城组火山岩中形成大规模气藏,不同火山岩相对油气的储集性差异很大,因此探究断陷内火山机构类型和喷发模式成为天然气勘探开发的基础。徐家围子断陷发育中酸性火山岩,识别出层状火山、熔岩穹隆、破火山口等3种主要火山机构赋存类型。受区域垂向和斜向两期拉张作用控制,在断裂上盘、下盘和断裂带,火山机构分别以不同形式展布：断裂下盘的掀斜肩部火山机构发育、断裂带火山机构串珠状叠置、断裂上盘火山爆发强烈并形成大型徐东破火山口。徐东破火山口的形成说明岩浆侵位于地壳底部,形成扁平状的岩浆房。岩浆垂直上升喷发或沿断裂喷发,形成徐家围子断陷中心式-裂隙式火山喷发模式。     

长白山天池火山千年大喷发的岩浆过程

千年大喷发是长白山天池火山最近的一次大规模爆炸式喷发活动。本文在天池火口及周边的地质调查中发现,千年大喷发存在碱流质和粗面质两套堆积物,且具有岩浆混合现象。进一步岩相学与地球化学研究,证实千年大喷发应存在先后两个喷发阶段,即碱流质喷发阶段(SiO_2,~75%)和粗面质喷发阶段(SiO_2,~65%)。同时,通过微量元素和斑晶特征等分析认为两阶段的岩浆来自于两个独立的岩浆房,岩浆房平衡温度分别为743℃和862℃,相应深度约为5km和7~9km。另外,根据条带状岩浆的混合特征,认为喷发过程中碱流质与粗面质岩浆混合发生在上升通道中,排除岩浆房内混合的可能性。最后根据喷发过程和岩浆特征,综合提出了千年大喷发的岩浆过程模型。本文对千年大喷发的喷发过程和岩浆过程取得的新认识,增进了对天池火山活动习性的理解。     

Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO STAGES OF FALLOUT PUMICES DEPOSITS FROM THE MILLENNIUM ERUPTION OF TIANCHI VOLCANO IN CHANGBAISHAN AREA

Tianchi volcano in Changbaishan area is located at the border between China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in China. It has experienced several explosive eruptions in late Pleistocene and Holocene, i.e. 50000aBP eruption, 946 AD eruption, 1668 AD eruption, 1702 AD eruption, 1903 AD eruption. Especially, the 946 AD eruption(also known as "Millennium eruption")of this volcano is considered to be one of the largest volcanic eruptions in the world in the past 2000a. The eruption history and strata sequence of Tianchi volcano have long been the focus of attention. The stratigraphic unit division of fallout deposits in the past millennium is controversial, especially for the heterogeneous trachytic pumices(erupted from the Yuanchi stage)above the off-white pumices(erupted from the Chifeng stage). In this paper, through the detailed field exploration and strata comparation, it was found that there was no depositional interval between the two stage eruptions, or the interval was not long, and thus, it is believed that two stages of fallout pumice should be classified into the Millennium eruption. The off-white fallout pumices in Chifeng stage are relatively homogeneous, with angular shape, normal grading and good sorting. The median size(Md_Φ)and the sorting coefficient(σ_Φ)of Chifeng pumice are in the range of -4.25~-1.3 and 0.93~1.53, respectively. The eruption of Yuanchi stage is in pulsing pattern, and the strata show interbedding of rich khaki pumice layer and rich black pumice layer. The pumices with angular shape show inconspicuous grain grading and good sorting. The median size(Md_Φ)and the sorting coefficient(σ_Φ)of Yuanchi pumice are in the range of -2.55~-0.6 and 1~1.68, respectively. Both the granularities of the pumice particles from two stages are normally distributed and fall into the air-fall field in the median diameter versus sorting diagram. The pumices from 50000aBP and pyroclastic flow of Millennium eruption were also shown in the diagram. Phenocrysts in pumices are mainly feldspar and pyroxene, but the phenocrysts with obvious resorbed characteristic in Yuanchi black pumice are bigger, and the phenocryst contents are a little higher than those in others. Feldspar content in off-white pumice in Chifeng stage was 0.24%~1.77%, that in khaki pumice in Yuanchi stage was 0.2%~7.5%, and that in black pumice in Yuanchi stage was 3.02%~8.0%. The phenocrysts in Chifeng pumice are broken, which represents more violent explosion. The vesicles inside the pumice also reflect the intensity of the eruption. The Chifeng pumices have large, continuous vesicles and thin vesicle walls. The Yuanchi khaki pumices have continuous vesicles but thicker vesicle wall than the Chifeng pumices. The vesicularity is the lowest and the vesicle walls are the thickest in the black pumices in Yuanchi stage, indicating the eruption strength become weaker from Chifeng stage to Yuanchi stage. The Chifeng pumices with SiO₂ content of 69.12~72.71wt%, K₂O content of 4.33~4.52wt%, Na₂O content of 5.26~5.39wt%, Al₂O₃ content of 10.32~11.99wt%, CaO content of 0.29~0.95wt%, MgO content of 0.11~0.51wt%, TiO₂ content of 0.23~0.43wt% are comendite in composition. The pumices from 50000aBP eruption are comendite in composition, and their SiO₂ content(65.56~68.28wt%)is slightly lower than Chifeng pumices. The Yuanchi khaki pumices with SiO₂ content of 62.14~63.29wt%, K₂O content of 5.35~5.7wt%, Na₂O content of 5.35~5.62wt%, Al₂O₃ content of 15.00~15.59wt%, CaO content of 1.06~1.61wt%, MgO content of 0.25~0.57wt%, TiO₂ content of 0.4~0.64wt% belong to trachyte in composition, and are close to the composition of the black pumices on the Tianwen Peak. The Yuanchi black pumices are also trachyte in composition, but have obviously lower SiO₂(59.51~60.59wt%), K₂O(4.39~4.84wt%), and Na₂O(4.94~5.08wt%)content, and higher Al₂O₃(15.81~16.42wt%), CaO(2.78~3.66wt%), MgO(1.43~1.9wt%), TiO₂(1.04~1.4wt%)content than the khaki pumices. The above results show that the eruptive intensity of the Yuanchi stage is weaker than that of the Chifeng stage and the several magmatic compositions of pumices from the Millennium eruption reveal a complex magma system under the Tianchi volcano. The magma layers with different compositions may exist in the magma chamber contemporaneously. At Chifeng stage, only the upper comendite magma erupted, but the magma below erupted in the pulsing pattern at the Yuanchi stage.     

TEPHRA RECORD FROM QUANYANG PEAT OF THE CHANGBAISHAN MILLENNIUM ERUPTION

Tephra, usually produced by explosive eruptions, is deposited rapidly, hence, it can serve as a distinctive and widespread synchronous marker horizon correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records. The tephra from Changbaishan Millennium eruption, a widely distributed tephra, is an important marker bed across the Japan Sea, Japan Islands and even in the Greenland ice cores 9000km away from volcanic vent. In this study, a discrete tephra was identified in the Quanyang peat~45km northeast to the Changbaishan volcano. Radiocarbon ¹⁴ C dating on the plant remains constrains an age of 886-1013calAD(95.4%)to the tephra layer, which can correspond to the Millennium eruption of Changbaishan in time. In addition, there was no similar volcanic eruption in the surrounding areas except Changbaishan at the same time. This tephra shows rhyolitic glass shards major element compositions similar to those rhyolitic tephra from Millennium eruption. This study illustrates that tephra from Millennium eruption has been transported to Quanyang peat~45km northwest to the Changbaishan volcano. Additionally, the diameter of the pumice lapilli is up to 0.3cm, implying that the tephra must be transported more distal away from Quanyang peat and formed a widely distributed isochronic layer. Glass geochemistry of the Quanyang tephra, different from the distal tephra recorded at Sihailongwan, Japan, and Greenland ice, shows a close affinity to the pyroclastic flow deposits of the Millennium eruption while not from fall deposits. This may indicate that distribution of the Millennium eruption of Changbaishanin in different directions may be controlled by different stages of eruption. This layer with well-defined annual results can be used to optimize the chronological framework of the corresponding sedimentary environment, thus facilitating more accurate discussion of corresponding environmental changes, which can achieve the contrast of the ancient climate records in the whole Northeast China-Japan and arctic regions.     

长白山天池火山千年大喷发期后火山泥石流沉积特征及其源-汇响应关系

源于长白山天池地区的火山泥石流沉积可分为粗碎屑岩块(岩屑)泥石流和细碎屑浮岩泥石流,它们沿二道白河和松花江水系搬运的路径为从距天池火山口40km的三合水电站经过丰满大坝(360km)和吉林市(380km)到小白旗屯(450km),形成广泛的沉积区域。这两类火山泥石流的沉积成因有两种解释:一是形成于千年大喷发同期,是由一次性洪水事件搬运和沉积形成的;二是形成于千年大喷发期后经过多次搬运和沉积的产物。两个模式的共同问题是都没有考虑天池当时是否有水及其蓄水过程。后一模式在某种程度上,还回避了导致岩屑与浮岩两类泥石流频繁互层的沉积物源和水动力条件以及二者的转换机制,而这恰恰是关于泥石流沉积成因的基本要素。通过重新研究火山泥石流经典剖面(位于天池西北57.73km的水田村),作者发现本区火山泥石流沉积存在明显的物源剥蚀区与沉积堆积区的反剖面关系。即无论是粒径32～500mm的粗碎屑还是0.0625～16mm的细碎屑,成分自下而上(或沉积早期到晚期)呈现规律性变化:剖面下部的碎屑成分以浮岩为主(浮岩在物源区位于顶部),向上粗面岩和玄武岩明显增多(在源区它们位于浮岩之下),而沉积序列上部的碎屑成分是在物源区处于较深层位的岩脉辉绿岩和基底流纹岩。整个序列碎屑成分的沉积分异特征明显。沉积构造和岩相组合特征显示,该火山泥石流剖面的下部和上部碎屑粒度细、分选较好、成层性好、水平状层理发育,主要表现为环境较为稳定的以地面径流为主的河流相和末端扇相背景沉积;中部粒度粗、成层性差、主要表现为突发性洪水作用导致的洪积相事件沉积。沉积序列中频繁出现的冲刷面构造指示水流强度曾出现周期性的快速增加。自下而上冲刷面规模由小变大再变小,指示水流强度由弱变强再变弱。为了探讨天池的积水条件和蓄水过程,作者基于达西定律和质量守恒原理,模拟计算降水量、蒸发量、地表径流量、火山机构整体的平均渗透率和天池积水速率之间的关系。结果显示,当天池火山机构平均渗透率高于6m D(毫达西)时,天池地区降水量减蒸发量即使高达2000mm/y,水亦会全部渗流而出,因此天池不存在积水环境。当降水量减蒸发量小于1500mm/y时,则天池火山体平均渗透率需要小于4m D,天池才可能在200年之内集满现今的水量。当天池降水量减蒸发量小于1000mm/y时,天池火山体平均渗透率需要小于2.5m D,天池才可能在200年之内集满现今的水量。将水田村火山泥石流沉积序列与天池蓄水过程计算结果加以对比,我们提出本区火山泥石流沉积序列的另一种成因解释:(1)这是形成于千年大喷发之后的以地面径流或河流为主的背景沉积与洪水导致的突发性事件沉积互层的序列;上部和下部的细碎屑层主要表现为背景沉积,中部的粗碎屑岩块泥石流主要表现为洪流事件沉积。(2)下部的背景沉积可能对应于天池千年大喷发之后的持续积水过程,时间可能不少于200年;而上部的背景沉积则对应于本区的水系和地貌逐渐稳定并接近于现今条件的稳定型河流沉积。结合天池北坡和西坡古老树木年轮指示的沙松冷杉生长年代(公元1749-1768)同时考虑松柏类植物对水系和地貌稳定性较为敏感等因素,推测上部沉积环境趋于稳定的时间应该不晚于公元十八世纪初。     

Complex proximal deposition during the Plinian eruptions of 1912 at Novarupta,Alaska

Proximal (<3 km) deposits from episodes II and III of the 60-h-long Novarupta 1912 eruption exhibit a very complex stratigraphy, the result of at least four transport regimes and diverse depositional mechanisms. They contrast with the relatively simple stratigraphy (and inferred emplacement mechanisms) for the previously documented, better known, medial–distal fall deposits and the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes ignimbrite. The proximal products include alternations and mixtures of both locally and regionally dispersed fall ejecta, and numerous thin complex deposits of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) with no regional analogs. The locally dispersed component of the fall deposits forms sector-confined wedges of material whose thicknesses halve radially from and concentrically about the vent over distances of 100–300 m (cf. several kilometers for the medial–distal fall deposits). This locally dispersed fall material (and many of the associated PDC deposits) is rich in andesitic and banded pumices and richer in shallow-derived wall-rock lithics in comparison with the coeval medial fall units of almost entirely dacitic composition. There are no marked contrasts in grain size in the near-vent deposits, however, between locally and widely dispersed beds, and all samples of the proximal fall deposits plot as a simple continuation of grain size trends for medial–distal samples. Associated PDC deposits form a spectrum of facies from fines-poor, avalanched beds through thin-bedded, landscape-mantling beds to channelized lobes of pumice-block-rich ignimbrite. The origins of the Novarupta near-vent deposits are considered within a spectrum of four transport regimes: (1) sustained buoyant plume, (2) fountaining with co-current flow, (3) fountaining with counter-current flow, and (4) direct lateral ejection. The Novarupta deposits suggest a model where buoyant, stable, regime-1 plumes characterized most of episodes II and III, but were accompanied by transient and variable partitioning of clasts into the other three regimes. Only one short period of vent blockage and cessation of the Plinian plume occurred, separating episodes II and III, which was followed by a single PDC interpreted as an overpressured "blast" involving direct lateral ejection. In contrast, regimes 2 and 3 were reflected by spasmodic sedimentation from the margins of the jet and perhaps lower plume, which were being strongly affected by short-lived instabilities. These instabilities in turn are inferred to be associated with heterogeneities in the mixture of gas and pyroclasts emerging from the vent. Of the parameters that control explosive eruptive behavior, only such sudden and asymmetrical changes in the particle concentration could operate on time scales sufficiently short to explain the rapid changes in the proximal 1912 products.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

Modelling of thermochemical plumes and implications for the origin of the Siberian traps

Thermochemical plumes form at the base of the lower mantle as a consequence of heat flow from the outer core and the presence of local chemical doping that decreases the melting temperature. Theoretical and experimental modelling of thermochemical plumes show that the diameter of a plume conduit remains practically constant during plume ascent. However, when the top of a plume reaches a refractory layer, whose melting temperature is higher than the melt temperature in the plume conduit, a mushroom-shaped plume head develops. Main parameters (melt viscosity, ascent time, ascent velocity, temperature differences in the plume conduit, and thermal power) are presented for a thermochemical plume ascending from the core–mantle boundary. In addition, the following relationships are developed: the pressure distribution in the plume conduit during the ascent of a plume, conditions for eruption-conduit formation, the effect of the P–T conditions and controls on the shape and size of a plume top, heat transfer between a thermochemical plume and the lithosphere (when the plume reaches the bottom of a refractory layer in the lithosphere), and eruption volume versus the time interval t₁ between plume formation and eruption. These relationships are used to determine thermal power and time t₁ for the Tunguska syneclise and the Siberian traps as a whole.

The Siberian and other trap provinces are characterized by giant volumes of lavas and sills formed a very short time period. Data permit a model for superplumes with three stages of formation: early (variable picrites and alkali basalts), main (tholeiite plateau basalts), and final (ultrabasic and alkaline lavas and intrusions). These stages reflect the evolution of a superplume from the ascent of one or several independent plumes, through the formation of thick lenses of mantle melts underplating the lithosphere and, finally, intrusion and extrusion of differentiated mantle melts. Synchronous syenite–granite intrusions and bimodal volcanism abundant in the margins of the Siberian traps are the result of melting of the lower crust at depths of 65–70 km under the effect of plume melts.     

Tephra Fallout Models: The Effect of Different Source Shapes on Isomass Maps

Numerous tephra dispersion and sedimentation models rely on some abstraction of the volcanic plume to simplify forecasts of tephra accumulation as a function of the distance from the volcano. Here we present solutions to the commonly used advection–dispersion equation using a variety of source shapes: a point, horizontal and vertical lines, and a circular disk. These may be related to some volcanic plume structure, such as a strong plume (vertical line), umbrella cloud (circular disk), or co-ignimbrite plume (horizontal line), or can be used to build a more complex plume structure such as a series of circular disks to represent a buoyant weak plume. Basing parameters upon eruption data, we find that depositions for the horizontal source shapes are very similar but differ from the vertical line source deposition. We also compare the deposition from a series of stacked circular disk sources of increasing radius above the volcanic vent with that from a vertical line source.