Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki,New Zealand

The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO STAGES OF FALLOUT PUMICES DEPOSITS FROM THE MILLENNIUM ERUPTION OF TIANCHI VOLCANO IN CHANGBAISHAN AREA

Tianchi volcano in Changbaishan area is located at the border between China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in China. It has experienced several explosive eruptions in late Pleistocene and Holocene, i.e. 50000aBP eruption, 946 AD eruption, 1668 AD eruption, 1702 AD eruption, 1903 AD eruption. Especially, the 946 AD eruption(also known as "Millennium eruption")of this volcano is considered to be one of the largest volcanic eruptions in the world in the past 2000a. The eruption history and strata sequence of Tianchi volcano have long been the focus of attention. The stratigraphic unit division of fallout deposits in the past millennium is controversial, especially for the heterogeneous trachytic pumices(erupted from the Yuanchi stage)above the off-white pumices(erupted from the Chifeng stage). In this paper, through the detailed field exploration and strata comparation, it was found that there was no depositional interval between the two stage eruptions, or the interval was not long, and thus, it is believed that two stages of fallout pumice should be classified into the Millennium eruption. The off-white fallout pumices in Chifeng stage are relatively homogeneous, with angular shape, normal grading and good sorting. The median size(Md_Φ)and the sorting coefficient(σ_Φ)of Chifeng pumice are in the range of -4.25~-1.3 and 0.93~1.53, respectively. The eruption of Yuanchi stage is in pulsing pattern, and the strata show interbedding of rich khaki pumice layer and rich black pumice layer. The pumices with angular shape show inconspicuous grain grading and good sorting. The median size(Md_Φ)and the sorting coefficient(σ_Φ)of Yuanchi pumice are in the range of -2.55~-0.6 and 1~1.68, respectively. Both the granularities of the pumice particles from two stages are normally distributed and fall into the air-fall field in the median diameter versus sorting diagram. The pumices from 50000aBP and pyroclastic flow of Millennium eruption were also shown in the diagram. Phenocrysts in pumices are mainly feldspar and pyroxene, but the phenocrysts with obvious resorbed characteristic in Yuanchi black pumice are bigger, and the phenocryst contents are a little higher than those in others. Feldspar content in off-white pumice in Chifeng stage was 0.24%~1.77%, that in khaki pumice in Yuanchi stage was 0.2%~7.5%, and that in black pumice in Yuanchi stage was 3.02%~8.0%. The phenocrysts in Chifeng pumice are broken, which represents more violent explosion. The vesicles inside the pumice also reflect the intensity of the eruption. The Chifeng pumices have large, continuous vesicles and thin vesicle walls. The Yuanchi khaki pumices have continuous vesicles but thicker vesicle wall than the Chifeng pumices. The vesicularity is the lowest and the vesicle walls are the thickest in the black pumices in Yuanchi stage, indicating the eruption strength become weaker from Chifeng stage to Yuanchi stage. The Chifeng pumices with SiO₂ content of 69.12~72.71wt%, K₂O content of 4.33~4.52wt%, Na₂O content of 5.26~5.39wt%, Al₂O₃ content of 10.32~11.99wt%, CaO content of 0.29~0.95wt%, MgO content of 0.11~0.51wt%, TiO₂ content of 0.23~0.43wt% are comendite in composition. The pumices from 50000aBP eruption are comendite in composition, and their SiO₂ content(65.56~68.28wt%)is slightly lower than Chifeng pumices. The Yuanchi khaki pumices with SiO₂ content of 62.14~63.29wt%, K₂O content of 5.35~5.7wt%, Na₂O content of 5.35~5.62wt%, Al₂O₃ content of 15.00~15.59wt%, CaO content of 1.06~1.61wt%, MgO content of 0.25~0.57wt%, TiO₂ content of 0.4~0.64wt% belong to trachyte in composition, and are close to the composition of the black pumices on the Tianwen Peak. The Yuanchi black pumices are also trachyte in composition, but have obviously lower SiO₂(59.51~60.59wt%), K₂O(4.39~4.84wt%), and Na₂O(4.94~5.08wt%)content, and higher Al₂O₃(15.81~16.42wt%), CaO(2.78~3.66wt%), MgO(1.43~1.9wt%), TiO₂(1.04~1.4wt%)content than the khaki pumices. The above results show that the eruptive intensity of the Yuanchi stage is weaker than that of the Chifeng stage and the several magmatic compositions of pumices from the Millennium eruption reveal a complex magma system under the Tianchi volcano. The magma layers with different compositions may exist in the magma chamber contemporaneously. At Chifeng stage, only the upper comendite magma erupted, but the magma below erupted in the pulsing pattern at the Yuanchi stage.     

天池火山千年大喷发的岩浆混合作用与喷发机制初步探讨

根据岩浆演化和地球物理深部探测，天池火山之下存在地壳和地幔双层岩浆房。地幔玄武质岩浆向地壳岩浆房的补给，保持了天池火山逾百万年持续不断的喷发活动。本文从天池火山千年大喷发浮岩中的玄武质粗安岩一粗安岩角砾和条带状岩浆的岩相学、矿物学和岩石化学研究，提出地幔的粗面玄武质岩浆向地壳岩浆房的注入，触发千年大喷发，初步探讨了天池火山千年大喷发的岩浆混合作用与喷发机制。     

景谷民乐火山灰流型铜矿地质及成因

民乐浸染状铜矿产于中三叠统灰流型富钠质熔结凝灰岩中。矿区火山岩主体为细碧角斑岩系，矿床的形成与陆内再生地槽海相火山活动及其4后的热液蚀变作用密切相关。矿体分布明显受火山岩岩性、岩相、层位及构造控制，成因上与火山喷发和爆发作用有关。矿床受后期火山热液、次生富集改造后富化明显。     

地壳硅质岩浆演化的动力学机制SCIEI北大核心CSCD

硅质岩浆的成因及演化机制研究是认识大陆地壳成分结构演化机制的关键途径。地壳硅质岩浆储库的基本性质及其演化的动力学过程是制约硅质岩浆演化及其多样性的根本原因,也是受到广泛关注的前沿和热点问题。本文总结了硅质岩浆储库的基本性质及其演化机制研究的相关进展,重点探讨了岩浆体系演化的动力学机制,即其物质成分及温度压力条件的动态演化过程,亦即岩浆储库在补给驱动下的存留、活化、分异、喷发过程。经由累积生长的方式形于地壳浅部的硅质岩浆储库以晶粥为主要赋存形式,具有较低的温度压力范围和高硅高结晶度高粘度的特征。岩浆储库的基本性质导致其自身不具有持续演化的能力,只有在基性岩浆补给的驱动下才能长时间存留分异或快速活化喷发。基性岩浆的补给及其携带的热及流体/挥发份深刻地改变了岩浆储库的物质成分及物理条件,是导致硅质岩浆分异演化或喷发的根本原因。本文还结合研究进展探讨了东南沿海地区中生代火山-侵入岩的成因演化机制及相关问题。     

长白山天池火山千年大喷发期后火山泥石流沉积特征及其源-汇响应关系

源于长白山天池地区的火山泥石流沉积可分为粗碎屑岩块(岩屑)泥石流和细碎屑浮岩泥石流,它们沿二道白河和松花江水系搬运的路径为从距天池火山口40km的三合水电站经过丰满大坝(360km)和吉林市(380km)到小白旗屯(450km),形成广泛的沉积区域。这两类火山泥石流的沉积成因有两种解释:一是形成于千年大喷发同期,是由一次性洪水事件搬运和沉积形成的;二是形成于千年大喷发期后经过多次搬运和沉积的产物。两个模式的共同问题是都没有考虑天池当时是否有水及其蓄水过程。后一模式在某种程度上,还回避了导致岩屑与浮岩两类泥石流频繁互层的沉积物源和水动力条件以及二者的转换机制,而这恰恰是关于泥石流沉积成因的基本要素。通过重新研究火山泥石流经典剖面(位于天池西北57.73km的水田村),作者发现本区火山泥石流沉积存在明显的物源剥蚀区与沉积堆积区的反剖面关系。即无论是粒径32～500mm的粗碎屑还是0.0625～16mm的细碎屑,成分自下而上(或沉积早期到晚期)呈现规律性变化:剖面下部的碎屑成分以浮岩为主(浮岩在物源区位于顶部),向上粗面岩和玄武岩明显增多(在源区它们位于浮岩之下),而沉积序列上部的碎屑成分是在物源区处于较深层位的岩脉辉绿岩和基底流纹岩。整个序列碎屑成分的沉积分异特征明显。沉积构造和岩相组合特征显示,该火山泥石流剖面的下部和上部碎屑粒度细、分选较好、成层性好、水平状层理发育,主要表现为环境较为稳定的以地面径流为主的河流相和末端扇相背景沉积;中部粒度粗、成层性差、主要表现为突发性洪水作用导致的洪积相事件沉积。沉积序列中频繁出现的冲刷面构造指示水流强度曾出现周期性的快速增加。自下而上冲刷面规模由小变大再变小,指示水流强度由弱变强再变弱。为了探讨天池的积水条件和蓄水过程,作者基于达西定律和质量守恒原理,模拟计算降水量、蒸发量、地表径流量、火山机构整体的平均渗透率和天池积水速率之间的关系。结果显示,当天池火山机构平均渗透率高于6m D(毫达西)时,天池地区降水量减蒸发量即使高达2000mm/y,水亦会全部渗流而出,因此天池不存在积水环境。当降水量减蒸发量小于1500mm/y时,则天池火山体平均渗透率需要小于4m D,天池才可能在200年之内集满现今的水量。当天池降水量减蒸发量小于1000mm/y时,天池火山体平均渗透率需要小于2.5m D,天池才可能在200年之内集满现今的水量。将水田村火山泥石流沉积序列与天池蓄水过程计算结果加以对比,我们提出本区火山泥石流沉积序列的另一种成因解释:(1)这是形成于千年大喷发之后的以地面径流或河流为主的背景沉积与洪水导致的突发性事件沉积互层的序列;上部和下部的细碎屑层主要表现为背景沉积,中部的粗碎屑岩块泥石流主要表现为洪流事件沉积。(2)下部的背景沉积可能对应于天池千年大喷发之后的持续积水过程,时间可能不少于200年;而上部的背景沉积则对应于本区的水系和地貌逐渐稳定并接近于现今条件的稳定型河流沉积。结合天池北坡和西坡古老树木年轮指示的沙松冷杉生长年代(公元1749-1768)同时考虑松柏类植物对水系和地貌稳定性较为敏感等因素,推测上部沉积环境趋于稳定的时间应该不晚于公元十八世纪初。     

熔体包裹体对长白山天池火山千年大喷发的指示意义

长白山天池火山在全新世曾有过几次喷发,其中距今约1000年发生过大规模布里尼式爆炸喷发（即“千年大喷发”）,其喷发产物——灰白色碱流质浮岩和喷发柱垮塌形成的火山碎屑流分布范围极广,除长白山区外,在朝鲜半岛和日本北部也有大量浮岩降落和堆积。根据野外较大范围的系统采样、镜下观察和测试分析,在天池火山千年大喷发产物的碱性长石晶屑中发现了两组颜色、形态、化学成分迥异的“火口组”和“圆池组”熔体包裹体,对揭示天池火山千年大喷发的成因具有重要意义。根据电子探针分析结果,“火口组”熔体包裹体成分为英安岩和粗面英安岩,寄主晶多为透长石;“圆池组”熔体包裹体成分为粗面英安岩和流纹岩,寄主晶为歪长石。相对“火口组”熔体包裹体,“圆池组”包裹体具有高SiO2、高H2O和高Cl含量的特点,化学成分也更为演化,可能是天池火山千年大喷发时岩浆结晶分异后期的产物。两组包裹体的存在为千年大喷发前的层状地壳岩浆房和成分并非单一提供了证据,它们可能是在同次大喷发的不同序列中喷出的。由于地幔岩浆注入地壳岩浆房,导致不同层位岩浆的扰动和混合作用,因挥发分出溶在岩浆房最顶部形成挥发分梯度和过饱和,最终触发了天池火山的千年大喷发,对当时的气候环境造成过较大影响。     

Complex proximal deposition during the Plinian eruptions of 1912 at Novarupta,Alaska

Proximal (<3 km) deposits from episodes II and III of the 60-h-long Novarupta 1912 eruption exhibit a very complex stratigraphy, the result of at least four transport regimes and diverse depositional mechanisms. They contrast with the relatively simple stratigraphy (and inferred emplacement mechanisms) for the previously documented, better known, medial–distal fall deposits and the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes ignimbrite. The proximal products include alternations and mixtures of both locally and regionally dispersed fall ejecta, and numerous thin complex deposits of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) with no regional analogs. The locally dispersed component of the fall deposits forms sector-confined wedges of material whose thicknesses halve radially from and concentrically about the vent over distances of 100–300 m (cf. several kilometers for the medial–distal fall deposits). This locally dispersed fall material (and many of the associated PDC deposits) is rich in andesitic and banded pumices and richer in shallow-derived wall-rock lithics in comparison with the coeval medial fall units of almost entirely dacitic composition. There are no marked contrasts in grain size in the near-vent deposits, however, between locally and widely dispersed beds, and all samples of the proximal fall deposits plot as a simple continuation of grain size trends for medial–distal samples. Associated PDC deposits form a spectrum of facies from fines-poor, avalanched beds through thin-bedded, landscape-mantling beds to channelized lobes of pumice-block-rich ignimbrite. The origins of the Novarupta near-vent deposits are considered within a spectrum of four transport regimes: (1) sustained buoyant plume, (2) fountaining with co-current flow, (3) fountaining with counter-current flow, and (4) direct lateral ejection. The Novarupta deposits suggest a model where buoyant, stable, regime-1 plumes characterized most of episodes II and III, but were accompanied by transient and variable partitioning of clasts into the other three regimes. Only one short period of vent blockage and cessation of the Plinian plume occurred, separating episodes II and III, which was followed by a single PDC interpreted as an overpressured "blast" involving direct lateral ejection. In contrast, regimes 2 and 3 were reflected by spasmodic sedimentation from the margins of the jet and perhaps lower plume, which were being strongly affected by short-lived instabilities. These instabilities in turn are inferred to be associated with heterogeneities in the mixture of gas and pyroclasts emerging from the vent. Of the parameters that control explosive eruptive behavior, only such sudden and asymmetrical changes in the particle concentration could operate on time scales sufficiently short to explain the rapid changes in the proximal 1912 products.Editorial responsibility: R. Cioni     

Modelling of thermochemical plumes and implications for the origin of the Siberian traps

Thermochemical plumes form at the base of the lower mantle as a consequence of heat flow from the outer core and the presence of local chemical doping that decreases the melting temperature. Theoretical and experimental modelling of thermochemical plumes show that the diameter of a plume conduit remains practically constant during plume ascent. However, when the top of a plume reaches a refractory layer, whose melting temperature is higher than the melt temperature in the plume conduit, a mushroom-shaped plume head develops. Main parameters (melt viscosity, ascent time, ascent velocity, temperature differences in the plume conduit, and thermal power) are presented for a thermochemical plume ascending from the core–mantle boundary. In addition, the following relationships are developed: the pressure distribution in the plume conduit during the ascent of a plume, conditions for eruption-conduit formation, the effect of the P–T conditions and controls on the shape and size of a plume top, heat transfer between a thermochemical plume and the lithosphere (when the plume reaches the bottom of a refractory layer in the lithosphere), and eruption volume versus the time interval t₁ between plume formation and eruption. These relationships are used to determine thermal power and time t₁ for the Tunguska syneclise and the Siberian traps as a whole.

The Siberian and other trap provinces are characterized by giant volumes of lavas and sills formed a very short time period. Data permit a model for superplumes with three stages of formation: early (variable picrites and alkali basalts), main (tholeiite plateau basalts), and final (ultrabasic and alkaline lavas and intrusions). These stages reflect the evolution of a superplume from the ascent of one or several independent plumes, through the formation of thick lenses of mantle melts underplating the lithosphere and, finally, intrusion and extrusion of differentiated mantle melts. Synchronous syenite–granite intrusions and bimodal volcanism abundant in the margins of the Siberian traps are the result of melting of the lower crust at depths of 65–70 km under the effect of plume melts.     

Tephra Fallout Models: The Effect of Different Source Shapes on Isomass Maps

Numerous tephra dispersion and sedimentation models rely on some abstraction of the volcanic plume to simplify forecasts of tephra accumulation as a function of the distance from the volcano. Here we present solutions to the commonly used advection–dispersion equation using a variety of source shapes: a point, horizontal and vertical lines, and a circular disk. These may be related to some volcanic plume structure, such as a strong plume (vertical line), umbrella cloud (circular disk), or co-ignimbrite plume (horizontal line), or can be used to build a more complex plume structure such as a series of circular disks to represent a buoyant weak plume. Basing parameters upon eruption data, we find that depositions for the horizontal source shapes are very similar but differ from the vertical line source deposition. We also compare the deposition from a series of stacked circular disk sources of increasing radius above the volcanic vent with that from a vertical line source.