The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

内蒙古化德县沙拉哈达石英脉型钨矿床成矿地质特征

沙拉哈达钨矿区处于内蒙地轴北缘和大兴安岭地槽褶皱系的交接处.矿化主要分布在安山玢岩内,矿体主要由含矿石英脉组成,矿脉中普遍含黑钨矿、白钨矿、黄铁矿及多金属硫化物.与钨矿有关的侵人岩体主要是燕山期黑云母花岗岩及花岗斑岩.围岩蚀变以硅化、云英岩化、绢云母化为主.该矿床属高温热液成因类型.     

有孔虫壳体的Mg/Ca比值在古环境研究中的应用

有孔虫壳体的Mg/Ca比值测定是目前估算海水古温度最受重视的方法,适用于低纬和高纬、表层和深层海水古温度的测定。该方法理论误差仅为±1.1℃,考虑到盐度以及海水pH值的影响,其误差为±1.3℃。运用此法推算出的热带海区表层海水温度领先于全球冰盖的变化,是热带过程调控冰期旋回最强有力的证据之一;与氧同位素相结合,还成功地运用于全球冰量的估算,是目前古环境研究中较常用的古温度测试手段。     

青藏高原湖泊Mg~(2+)、Ca~(2+)和Mg/Ca盐度指示意义的初步分析

总结了青藏高原地区400多个湖泊湖水的Mg2+、Ca2+和Mg/Ca等水化指标与湖水盐度的相关关系,以及这种关系随着湖水变化(不同采样时间和采样点以及自然蒸发)而产生的变化规律.结果表明:青藏高原湖泊湖水的Mg2+浓度与盐度具有较为稳定的正相关关系,而Ca2+和Mg/Ca与盐度的相关性较弱.在对于某一特定水化学类型的湖泊,一般碳酸盐型湖泊的Mg2+、Ca2+以及Mg/Ca等指标与盐度均没有明显的相关性;硫酸盐型湖泊中Mg2+浓度和盐度呈现较高的正相关关系,而Ca2+以及Mg/Ca与盐度的相关性仍很弱;而在氯化物型湖泊中,Mg2+浓度与盐度呈更高的正相关性,Ca2+浓度也与盐度呈一定的正相关性,Mg/Ca这一指标与盐度的相关性依然很弱.而对某一特定湖泊,在不同演化阶段或不同的采样地点,Mg2+浓度与盐度仍然保持明显的正相关关系,而Ca2+以及Mg/Ca与盐度的相关性仍然不稳定或很弱.在青藏高原作古环境重建应用的时候,湖水Mg2+浓度是古盐度一个较好的转换指标,而Ca2+以及Mg/Ca的古盐度指示意义相对较弱.     

大兴安岭中段突泉盆地玛尼吐组火山岩地球化学特征及成因

突泉盆地玛尼吐组安山岩位于内蒙古东部兴安盟突泉县,大地构造位置属华北板块北缘晚古生代陆缘增生带,大兴安岭构造岩浆岩带中段.安山岩样品的SiO₂、Al₂O₃、Na₂O、K₂O含量分别为60.64%~64.36%、15.84%~17.38%、3.76%~5.30%、2.44%~3.81%,为过铝质、高钾钙碱性岩石,轻稀土元素富集,重稀土元素亏损,无Eu异常和Ce异常,富集大离子亲石元素（Rb、K、Ba、LREE）和化学性质活泼的不相容元素（U、Th）,相对亏损高场强元素（Nb、Ta、P、Ti）和重稀土元素（如Y、Yb、Lu）.原始岩浆来源于地壳岩石部分熔融源区,是蒙古-鄂霍次克洋闭合后岩石圈伸展环境下的产物.     

碳酸盐型盐湖卤水的模拟太阳池结晶试验

在碳酸盐型盐湖提锂工艺中, 太阳池是一个重要组成部分, 目的是储存太阳能能量以结晶析出碳酸锂。文章利用加热方法首次在实验室条件下进行模拟太阳池结晶试验, 试验的蒸发量随着温度的升高而加大, 但蒸发量的不同对析盐结晶影响不大。在不同时间段模拟试验中, 24 h时间段的Mg2+析盐浓度较Li+大, 且随着时间的延长逐渐降低, 而Li+则相反;Mg2+析出速率随着时间的增加而逐渐降低, 而Li+析出速率基 本保持一致。在不同温度模拟试验中, 卤水主要组分总析出率与温度的升高呈正相关, 卤水中CO32?和Li+的浓度降低速度大于其他组分, CO32?和Li+的析出率远大于其他组分, 析出主要矿物鉴定结果均为扎布耶石     

利用F10.7和Mg II构建太阳极紫外辐射长时间序列

利用SOHO/SEM在1996-2008年的太阳EUV观测数据,比较和评估F10.7和Mg II作为EUV代理参数的代表性,不能支持Viereck等关于Mg II是比F10.7更好的代理参数的结论.通过比较对两种参数的多种回归计算结果,确立双因子极大似然估计方法构建EUV计算模式,通过模型计算结果与SEM观测数据比较,表明该模型能够很好地重建EUV数据系列.利用该模式,构建了1978年11月以来的太阳极紫外辐射数据序列.     

Mg-Sr isotopes of low-δ26Mg basalts tracing recycled carbonate species: Implication for the initial melting depth of the carbonated mantle in Eastern China

ABSTRACT

Recent studies show that crustal carbonates recycled into the mantle can be traced using Mg isotopes of basalts. However, the species of recycled carbonates are poorly constrained. Carbonates have lower δ²⁶Mg values and higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios relative to the mantle, but different carbonate species display different mixing curves with the mantle in the Mg-Sr isotopic diagram because of differences in their Sr and Mg contents. Thus a combined study of Mg-Sr isotopes can constrain the species of deeply recycled carbonates. Here, we present newly determined ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the <110 Ma basalts from Eastern China, and together with published Mg isotopic data we evaluate the species of recycled carbonates in the mantle and discuss their implication. The <110 Ma basalts display low δ²⁶Mg values of ?0.60 to ?0.30‰ and relatively low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70328 to 0.70537, suggesting that their mantle source was hybridized by recycled carbonates with a light Mg isotopic composition which had more significant effects on Mg than Sr isotope ratios. Mg-Sr isotopic data indicate that the recycled carbonates consist of magnesite and aragonite, but the possibility of calcite and dolomite cannot be eliminated. Based on the carbonated peridotite solidus, the equilibrium line between dolomite and magnesite + aragonite, as well as the mantle adiabat, the initial melting depth of the carbonated mantle, the source region of the studied basalts, was constrained at ~300–360 km. Thus, the subducted depth of the west Pacific slab underlying the carbonated mantle and supplying recycled carbonates should be greater than ~300–360 km, consistent with the seismic tomography result that the west Pacific slab now stagnates in the mantle transition zone.     

湘南宜章地区辉绿岩、花岗斑岩、安山岩的形成时代和成因——锆石U-Pb年龄和Hf同位素组成

湘南宜章县长城岭地区广泛出露以辉绿岩、花岗斑岩为主的燕山早期岩体,而宜章平和地区主要分布安山岩体,其年龄和成因有待进一步研究。分别用SHRIMP和LA-ICP-MS法测试了它们的年龄和Hf同位素组成,长城岭辉绿岩的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb年龄为153.7Ma±3.1Ma、227.0Ma±4.2Ma;长城岭花岗斑岩的LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果为153Ma±14Ma和231.58Ma±0.67Ma;平和安山岩的SHRIMP锆石U-Pb测年结果为159Ma±14Ma和229.3Ma±7.6Ma,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果为161Ma±1Ma,显示为燕山早期岩浆侵位和印支期基性岩浆底侵。锆石Lu-Hf同位素原位分析结果表明,εHf(t)值在正值和负值范围内变化,指示岩浆为壳幔混合来源。结合长城岭花岗岩体中继承锆石的年龄信息,认为花岗质岩石可能来源于中元古代基底的重熔。岩体岩浆很可能是由元古宙火成岩石部分熔融形成的,并伴有年轻或新生幔源物质的加入,岩浆上升侵位的过程中发生了混合作用。     

Block‐and‐ash flow deposit of the Narcondam Volcano: Product of dacite–andesite dome collapse in the Burma–Java subduction complex

Narcondam Island in the Andaman Sea represents a dacite–andesite dome volcano in the volcanic chain of the Burma–Java subduction complex. The pyroclasts of andesitic composition are restricted to the periphery of the dome predominantly in the form of block‐and‐ash deposits and minor base surge deposits. Besides pyroclastic deposits, andesitic lava occurs dominantly at the basal part of the dome whereas dacitic lava occupies the central part of the dome. The pyroclasts are represented by non‐vesiculated to poorly vesiculated blocks of andesite, lapilli, and ash. The hot debris derived from dome collapse was deposited initially as massive to reversely‐graded beds with the grain support at the lower part and matrix support at the upper part. This sequence is overlain by repetitive beds of lapilli breccia to tuff breccia. These deposits are recognized as a basal avalanche rather than lahar deposit. This basal avalanche was punctuated by an ash‐cloud surge deposit representing a sequence of thinly bedded units of normal graded unit to parallel laminated beds.