Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stormflow concentration–discharge dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved phosphorus in an agricultural watershed

Concentration–discharge (C-Q) relationships are an effective tool for identifying watershed biogeochemical source and transport dynamics over short and long timescales. We examined stormflow C-Q, hysteresis, and flushing patterns of total suspended sediment (TSS) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in two stream reaches of a severely impaired agricultural watershed in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. The upper watershed reach—draining a relatively flat, row crop-dominated contributing area—showed predominantly anti-clockwise TSS hysteresis during storms, suggesting that particulate materials were mobilized more from distal upland sources than near- and in-channel areas. In contrast, the incised lower watershed reach produced strong TSS flushing responses on the rising limb of storm hydrographs and clockwise hysteresis, signalling rapid mobilization of near- and in-channel materials with increasing event flows. C-Q relationships for SRP showed complex patterns in both the upper and lower reaches, demonstrating largely non-linear chemodynamic C-Q behaviour during events. As with TSS, anti-clockwise SRP hysteresis in the upper reach suggested a delay in the hydrologic connectivity between SRP sources and the stream, with highly variable SRP concentrations during some events. A broad range of clockwise, anti-clockwise, and complex SRP hysteresis patterns occurred in the lower watershed, possibly influenced by in-channel legacy P stores and connection to tile drainage networks in the lower watershed area. Total suspended sediment and SRP responses were also strongly related to precipitation event characteristics including antecedent precipitation, recovery period, and precipitation intensity, highlighting the complexity of stormflow sediment and phosphorus responses in this severely impaired agricultural stream.     

The Upstream “Strong Signals” of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.     

敦密断裂带白垩纪两期重要的变形事件

本文报道了敦密断裂带糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar定年结果和大规模走滑-逆冲断裂的几何学、运动学特征及其形成时代,以便揭示断裂带两期变形事件的构造属性。黑龙江省密山市花岗质糜棱岩中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar加权平均年龄为132.2±1.2Ma,它是敦密断裂带经历伸展事件的冷却年龄,也是东北亚大陆边缘在早白垩世Hauterivian期-Albian期发生强烈区域伸展作用的产物。密山市至辽宁省清原县系列大型走滑-逆冲断层和断层相关褶皱揭示出在晚白垩世晚期-末期发生右旋走滑-逆冲事件,该事件规模大,影响范围广,导致整个断裂带遭受到强烈改造,形成对冲式断裂系统。将研究区走滑-逆冲断裂与山东省郯庐断裂带中段挤压构造对比,认为郯庐断裂带北段和中段在晚白垩世末期都发生了强烈的走滑-逆冲事件,它们具有相同的构造特征和构造属性。     

辽南金州拆离断层带中花岗质岩石的变形:显微构造、组构与年代学分析

花岗岩(脉)在中下地壳韧性剪切带中普遍发育,如何正确鉴别剪切带中剪切前、剪切期及剪切后花岗岩(脉)以及正确理解剪切过程中构造变形与岩浆作用之间的关系一直是一个重要课题。本文以辽南金州拆离断层带为研究对象,选取中部地壳伸展作用过程中具有不同变形表现的花岗岩(脉)开展宏观-微观构造观察、石英EBSD组构分析及锆石LA-ICP-MS年代学测试等工作,从而进一步丰富构造-岩浆关系判别准则。剪切前花岗岩(脉)多变形强烈且具有后期固态变形叠加在早期高温岩浆组构之上的特点,而剪切期的花岗岩由于侵位的时间不同,岩石的变形程度也会不同。剪切晚期侵入的岩脉遭受了较弱的晶内塑性变形,而剪切早期的岩脉可以显示岩浆流动或结晶后高温至中温固态变形。从组构特点上看,剪切前和剪切期花岗质岩石石英c轴组构大多表现为中高温组构叠加有低温组构的特点。剪切后的花岗质岩石仅发生微弱的晶内变形或未变形而显示低温或无规律的组构特征。对五个典型的样品进行年代学测试,其结果符合相应的期次划分类型。应用宏观构造、显微构造与组构分析,结合年代学测试综合分析,对于辽南变质核杂岩构造-岩浆活动性进行了精细划分,包括134~130Ma初始伸展阶段,130~115Ma峰期伸展与强烈岩浆活动阶段,以及115Ma前后伸展作用结束。     

阴山陆块武川石榴基性麻粒岩P-T条件及其变质时代:来自相平衡模拟与锆石U-Pb定年的约束

武川高级片麻岩地体中石榴基性麻粒岩的变质用与同位素年代学研究对于揭示阴山陆块新太古代构造演化过程具有十分重要的研究意义。它们主要以不规则透镜体或变形岩墙/岩脉群的形式赋存于新太古代晚期英云闪长质片麻岩或变质表壳岩系之中,并切割近南-北向的区域性片麻理。岩相学观察、矿物相转变分析与矿物化学研究表明,武川石榴基性麻粒岩保留了十分典型的高压麻粒岩相矿物:石榴石+单斜辉石+斜长石+角闪石+石英+铁-钛氧化物。其中,粗粒石榴石边部常发育微弱的扩散环带,表现为从幔部至边部,镁铝榴石组分不断减少,相应地铁铝榴石组分不断增加,而钙铝榴石与锰铝榴石组分基本不变,指示晚期冷却降温作用对石榴石成分产生一定影响。斜长石具有细粒包体型与粗粒基质型两种不同的类型,它们具有十分相似化学成分,均为An=35~45的中长石。在NCFMASHTO(Na_2O-CaO-FeO-MgO-Al_2O_3-SiO_2-H_2O-TiO_2-Fe_2O_3)体系下,利用THERM OCA LC 3.33软件,对两件石榴基性麻粒岩样品进行了相平衡模拟,模拟的峰期矿物组合为:石榴石+单斜辉石+斜长石+角闪石+石英+铁-钛氧化物,与岩相学观察十分一致。采用石榴石中最小x(g)Fe~(2 +)/(Fe~(2 +)+Mg))与斜长石是中最小ca(pl)(Ca/(Ca+Na))等值线,将本区石榴基性麻粒岩峰期高压麻粒岩相的温压条件限定在P=1.31~1.40GPa,T=770~840℃的范围内。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年结果表明,两件石榴基性麻粒岩麻粒岩中发育的变质锆石分别记录了2517±6Ma(BT58-1,MSWD=0.66,n=21)与2512±16Ma(LH66-1,MSWD=0.26,n=42)的加权平均年龄,与阴山陆块其它新太古代岩石记录的约2500Ma变质年龄一致,被解释为本区石榴基性麻粒岩遭受高压麻粒岩相变质时代。结合本区其它新的研究资料,本文认为武川石榴基性麻粒岩形成可能与区内新太古代晚期造山作用有关。     

Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.