利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

GEOLOGICAL MARKS OF A POSSIBLE EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACT EVENT ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SINIAN/CAMBRIAN IN TIANMENSHAN IN WESTERN HUNAN

Geologic marks related to extraterrestrial impact events, such as impact split gravels, impact brecciate layers, impact dikes, microirghizites, microtektites, especially meteoritic residues, were discovered on the boundary between Sinian/Cambrian at Tianmenshan of Western Hunan, which may possibly demonstrate that an extraterrestrial impact event has ever occurred there on the S/C boundary.     

Matuyama-Brunhes reversal and Kamikatsura event on Maui: paleomagnetic directions, Ar/Ar ages and implications

Eighty-nine basaltic lava flows from the northwest wall of Haleakala caldera preserve a concatenated paleomagnetic record of portions of the Matuyama-Brunhes (M-B) reversal and the preceding Kamikatsura event as well as secular variation of the full-polarity reversed and normal geomagnetic field. They provide the most detailed volcanic record to date of the M-B transition. The 24 flows in the transition zone show for the first time transitional virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) that move from reverse to normal along the Americas, concluding with an oscillation in the Pacific Ocean to a cluster of VGPs east of New Zealand and back finally to stable polarity in the north polar region. All but one of the 16 Kamikatsura VGPs cluster in central South America. The full-polarity flows, with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages spanning a total of 680 kyr, pass a reversal test and give an average VGP insignificantly different from the rotation axis, with standard deviation consistent with that for other 0-5 Ma lava flows of similar latitude. Precise ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating consisting of 31 incremental heating experiments on 12 transitional flows yields weighted mean ages of 775.6±1.9 and 900.3±4.7 ka for the M-B and Kamikatsura transitional flows, respectively. This Matuyama-Brunhes age is ∼16 kyr younger than ages for M-B flows from the Canary Islands, Tahiti and Chile that were dated using exactly the same techniques and standards, suggesting that this polarity transition may have taken considerably longer to complete and been more complex than is generally believed for reversals.     

ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水的关系

应用近百年ENSO事件的研究成果和ENSO事件影响年的资料，统计分析近50年来ENSO事件与鲁西北夏季降水关系，为短期气候预测和汛期气象服务提供参考依据。     

2002年6月13日重庆区域大暴雨分析

通过对重庆西部“6 1 3”区域大暴雨的分析 ,发现此次天气过程是一次典型的高原涡与西南涡耦合 ,结合地面弱冷空气条件下产生的 ,同时对ECMWF和T2 1 3数值预报产品进行了简要的分析 ,发现ECMWF和T2 1 3的形势预报能力都比较好 ,但T2 1 3的部分物理量要素和降水量预报能力还有待提高。     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

Seismic image of the deep crust at the eastern margin of the Alps (Austria): indications for crustal extension in a convergent orogen

A 39-km-long deep seismic reflection profile recorded during two field campaigns in 1996 and 2002 provides a first detailed image of the deep crust at the eastern margin of the Eastern Alps (Austria). The ESE–WNW-trending, low-fold seismic line crosses Austroalpine basement units and extends approximately from 20 km west of the Penninic window group of Rechnitz to 60 km SSE of the Alpine thrust front.The explosive-source seismic data reveals a transparent shallow crust down to 5 km depth, a complexly reflective upper crust and a highly reflective lowermost crust. The upper crust is dominated by three prominent west-dipping packages of high-amplitude subparallel reflections. The upper two of these prominent packages commence at the eastern end of the profile at about 5 and 10 km depth and are interpreted as low-angle normal shear zones related to the Miocene exhumation of the Rechnitz metamorphic core complex. In the western portion of the upper crust, east-dipping and less significant reflections prevail. The lowermost package of these reflections is suggested to represent the overall top of the European crystalline basement.Along the western portion of the line, the lower crust is characterised by a 6–8-km-thick band of high-amplitude reflection lamellae, typically observed in extensional provinces. The Moho can be clearly defined at the base of this band, at approximately 32.5 km depth. Due to insufficient signal penetration, outstanding reflections are missing in the central and eastern portion of the lower crust. We speculate that the result of accompanying gravity measurements and lower crustal sporadic reflections can be interpreted as an indication for a shallower Moho in the east, preferable at about 30.5 km depth.The high reflectivity of the lowermost part of the lower crust and prominent reflection packages in the upper crust, the latter interpreted to represent broad extensional mylonite zones, emphasises the latest extensional processes in accordance with eastward extrusion.     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

Chemical Profiles across a Jurassic Stratiform Manganese Deposit at Katsuyama in the Mino Terrane of Central Japan: Implications for Depositional Environment, Diagenetic Metal Redistribution and Paleoceanography

Abstract. Inorganic chemical compositions are determined for a series of rocks crossing an Early Jurassic stratiform manganese ore deposit in a chert‐dominant sequence at Katsuyama, in the Mino Terrane of central Japan. The lithology in the vicinity of the manganese ore bed is classified into lower bedded chert, black shale, massive chert, manganese ore and upper bedded chert, in ascending order. The rocks surrounding the manganese deposit are anomalously high in certain elements: Pb (max. 29 ppm), Ni (1140) and Co (336) in the lower bedded chert, Mo (438), As (149), Tl (29) and U (12) in the black shales, V (210) and Cr (87) in the massive chert, and MnO and W (24) in the manganese ore. The aluminum‐normalized profiles reveal a distinct zonation of redox‐sensitive elements: Pb‐Zn, Ni‐Co‐Cu(‐Zn) and U‐Cr in the lower bedded chert, Mo‐As‐Tl in the black shale, V(‐Cr) in the massive chert, and Mn‐Fe‐Ba‐W in the manganese ore, in ascending order. The lower and upper bedded cherts and manganese ore generally exhibit flat rare earth element patterns with positive Ce anomalies, whereas the uppermost part of the lower bedded chert, the black shale and massive chert have flat patterns with weak or nonexistent negative Ce anomalies and weak positive Eu anomalies. The strong enrichment in Ni, Co, W, Tl and As detected in the Katsuyama section is not recognized in other sediments, including those of anoxic deposition origin, but is identified in modern ferromanganese nodules, suggesting that metal enrichment in the Katsuyama section is essentially due to the formation of ferromanganese nodules rather than to deposition in an anoxic environment. The observed elemental zonation is well explained by equilibrium calculations, reflecting early diagenetic formation and associated gradual reduction with depth. The concentration profiles in combination with litho‐ and biostratigraphical features suggest that formation of these bedded manganese deposits was triggered by an influx of warm, saline and oxic water into a stagnant deep ocean floor basin in Panthalassa at the end of the middle Early Jurassic. Paleoceanographic environmental controls thus appear to be important factors in the formation and preservation of this type of stratiform manganese deposit.     

Amphibole Ar/Ar Geochronology from the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt, South Korea and its Tectonic Implications

An understanding of the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt (OMB) in South Korea is central to unraveling the tectono-metamorphic evolution of East Asia. Amphibole-bearing rocks in the OMB occur as calcsilicate layers and lenses in psammitic rocks, in the psammitic rocks themselves, and in the mafic volcanic layers and intrusives. Most amphiboles fail to show ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages; those that do have ages ranging from 132 to 975 Ma. The disturbed age pattern and wide variation in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages can be related to metamorphic grade, retrograde chemical reactions, excess Ar and amphibole composition. The oldest age (975 Ma) can be interpreted either as an old igneous or metamorphic age predating sedimentation or a false age caused by excess Ar. The youngest age of 132 Ma and the disturbed age pattern found in amphiboles from rocks located close to Jurassic granitoids are the result of retrograde thermal metamorphic effects accompanying intrusion of the granitoids. Some medium- or coarse-grained amphiboles in the calcsilicates are aggregates of fine-grained crystals. As a result, they are heterogeneous and prove to be readily affected by excess Ar. A disturbed age pattern in amphiboles from the calcsilicates occurring in the high-grade metamorphic zone may also be the product of excess Ar. On the other hand, the disturbed pattern of amphiboles present in the calcsilicates from the low-grade metamorphic zone could arise from both excess Ar and mixed ages. However, amphiboles from psammitic rocks and some calcsilicates in the high-grade metamorphic zone and in intrusive metabasites display real plateau ages of 237 to 261 Ma. The temperature conditions in the high-grade metamorphic zone were higher than the argon closing temperature for amphibole, and the amphiboles in this zone give plateau ages only when they are homogeneous in composition, lack excess Ar, and have not been thermally affected by intrusion of the granitoids. The unmodified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages prove rather younger than the age of the Late Paleozoic metamorphic event of 280 to 300 Ma, but they are close to muscovite K-Ar ages of 263 to 277 Ma. These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages are interpreted as the time of cooling that followed the main regional, intermediate-P/T metamorphic climax. The results demonstrate that interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages in an area subjected to several metamorphic events can be accomplished only by undertaking a thorough tectono-metamorphic study, accompanied by detailed chemical analysis of the amphiboles.