从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

沙尘天气频率与相关气象因子的关系

基于北京及其周边14个国家基本气象站1971—2000年气象资料的相关分析,指出风速、相对湿度是影响沙尘天气的关键气象因子,用这两个气象因子构建了月沙尘气象指数。月沙尘气象指数与沙尘天气频率具有较一致的周期性,沙尘天气日的沙尘气象指数是非沙尘日指数的倍数关系。另外,根据月沙尘气象指数在不同月份的分布特征,给出了相应的季节性气象指数计算方法,对14个站计算的结果显示,季节性气象指数与沙尘天气频率有很好的线性关系,这种线性关系具有明显的区域特征。     

基于本底趋势线的秦俑馆旅游危机后评价研究

分析了相邻年比较法在旅游危机评价中的不足,提出了基于本底趋势线的旅游危机后影响评价方法。以陕西秦始皇兵马俑1980~2005年统计数据,建立了入境旅游、国内旅游、客流总量和旅游收入4条本底趋势线,对1989年北京6.4风波、1998年亚洲金融危机、2003年SARS瘟疫三个突发事件旅游危机在本景区的响应进行后评价研究,揭示了秦兵马俑景区在三次危机中所造成的客流量损失、旅游收入损失及冲击时间表,为突发事件旅游危机的后评价研究提供了新的理论与方法。     

2008年广西严重低温雨雪冰冻天气过程分析

利用T213、ECMW F数值预报资料和MICAPS提供的常规观测资料,对这次极端天气事件成因进行分析,表明造成这次长时间低温雨雪冰冻天气的主要原因有:(1)北半球东亚倒Ω流型使大气环流长时间稳定,使北支、南支锋区偏南,极地冷空气不断补充南下影响到江南、华南,华南静止锋在沿海长时间维持,锋区强度大;(2)南支槽活跃,西南暖湿气流持续向我国南方输送,冷暖空气在华南上空交汇,导致广西出现长时间的降水;(3)逆温层维持时间长,长时间的降水普遍以小雨为主,容易形成过冷水滴,雨淞范围从贵州、湖南南扩至广西北部,造成道路结冰、电线积冰等次生灾害,灾情严重。     

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。     

Provenance of freshwater pulses in the Gulf of Mexico during the last deglaciation

During the last deglaciation, the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) delivered huge volumes of meltwater toward the Gulf of Mexico. The present investigation of clay mineralogy and grain-size characteristics of terrigenous sediments deposited in the Orca Basin (Gulf of Mexico) offers a unique opportunity to link the marine record of these meltwater floods with the reconstructed continental glacial history and the modeled drainage patterns. Five peculiar sedimentary levels, characterized by high smectite content and low CaCO₃ content, were identified and occurred simultaneously with major meltwater floods. According to recently published clay mineral distribution maps for North America, these results help to pinpoint the southwestern margin of the LIS as a main contributor to most of the meltwater discharges. In addition, the peculiar mineralogical composition (illite and chlorite-rich) of the sediments characterizing the meltwater episode associated with Heinrich event 1 suggests a provenance from the Great Lakes area, supporting the interpretation of destabilization of the LIS southeastern margin during this event. Decreased terrigenous contribution associated with changing provenance of sediments after 12.9 cal ka BP suggests strong modifications of the continental hydrography in relation to Lake Agassiz history and changes in the morphology of Mississippi delta due to rising sea level.     

东亚季风“2.8ka”事件高分辨率的石笋记录

据湖北省神农架永兴洞一支石笋的8个230Th年龄、648个δ18O数据,建立了晚全新世4.40～ 1.75ka B.P.时段平均分辨率为4a的东亚夏季风演化序列,其中在2.92～ 2.74ka B.P.期间,δ18O发生显著正偏,幅度达2.5‰,指示一个显著的弱季风事件(这里称之“2.8ka”事件).该事件以夏季风缓慢减弱开始,迅速增强结束,事件内部有两个次一级的振荡旋回(两峰三谷结构),在内部细节与转型特征上类似湖北和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的“8.2ka”事件,暗示发生在全新世这两个冷事件的驱动机制基本一致.这两个弱季风事件都发生在太阳活动明显减弱时期,并分别与北大西洋Bond 2和Bond 5冰漂碎屑事件同步,表明百年尺度的东亚季风环流的演化由太阳活动和北高纬气候共同驱动.     

泥盆系弗拉阶/法门阶之交事件沉积和海平面变化

在华南板块南部被动大陆边缘和西伯利亚板块南部活动大陆边缘弗拉阶/法门阶之交识别出7种物理事件相: 细粒钙屑浊积岩相、钙质角砾岩相、软变形灰岩相、含微球粒的粒泥灰岩相、凝灰质砾岩相、黑色页岩相和火山喷溢相.它们在法门阶下Palmatolepis triangularis带底部和/或上Palmatolepis rhenana带底部具有广泛的分布, 可能是两次陨击事件记录, 是良好的高分辨率年代地层对比标志.弗拉期/法门期之交的海平面变化不具有同步性和一致性, 可分辨出2种型式(阶跃型和渐进型) 和5种状态(弗拉期最末期下降→法门期最初期上升、弗拉期最末期上升→法门期最初期下降、弗拉期最末期上升→法门期最初期上升、弗拉期最末期下降→法门期最初期下降、弗拉期最末期与法门期最初期海平面变化不明显).弗拉阶/法门阶之交生物的阶梯状绝灭可能与从上Palmatolepis rhenana带底部至Palmatolepis crepida带不均匀分布的6次陨击事件密切相关.      

祁连山西段及酒西盆地区第四纪构造运动的阶段划分

通过沉积地层、地貌、构造形变等的综合研究，对祁连山西段及酒西盆地区第四纪构造运动的期次和阶段进行了划分。上新世晚期以来，这一地区至少经历过６次显著的构造变动或构造事件，其中以玉门、酒泉和白杨河运动最为强烈。针对上述构造事件进行了古地磁、孢粉、红外释光和热释光等方法的综合研究和年龄测定，论述了各阶段构造运动的方式、性质和其它有关特征。