Stage level,volume and time‐frequency information content of Lake Tana using stochastic and wavelet analysis methods

Lake Tana is the largest fresh water body situated in the north‐western highlands of Ethiopia. In addition to its ecological services, it serves for local transport, electric power generation, fishing, recreational purposes, and source of dry season irrigation water supply. Evidence shows that the lake has dried at least once at about 15,000–17,000 before present owing to a combination of high evaporation and low precipitation events. Past attempts to understand and simulate historical fluctuation of Lake Tana based on simplistic water balance approach of inflow, outflow, and storage have failed to capture well‐known events of drawdown and rise of the lake that have happened in the last 44 years. This study tested different stochastic methods of lake level and volume simulation for supporting Lake Tana operational planning decision support. Three stochastic methods (perturbations approach, Monte Carlo methods, and wavelet analysis) were employed for lake level and volume simulation, and the results were compared with the stage level measurements. Forty‐four years of daily, monthly, and mean annual lake level data have shown a Gaussian variation with goodness of fit at 0.01 significant levels of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The stochastic simulations predicted the lake stage level of the 1972, 1984, and 2002/2003 historical droughts 99% of the time. The information content (frequency) of fluctuation of Lake Tana for various periods was resolved using Wigner's Time‐Frequency Decomposition method. The wavelet analysis agreed with the perturbations and Monte Carlo simulations resolving the time (1970s, 1980s, and 2000s) in which low frequency and high spectral power fluctuation has occurred. The Monte Carlo method has shown its superiority for risk analysis over perturbation and deterministic method whereas wavelet analysis reconstructed historical record of lake stage level at daily and monthly time scales. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ON SOME KEY SEDIMENTATION PROBLEMS OF THREE GORGES PROJECT (TGP)

I. INTRODUCTIONThe Three Gorges Project (TGP) being planned is to be located on the Yangtze River at Sandouplug, 44 km upstream of Yichang (Fig. l). A scheme studied in the feasibility stage has the crest ofthe dam placed at 185 m with a maximums height o…     

多元素与大骨节病关系的稳定性研究

对内蒙古三个典型大骨节病区<15岁人群发中21个元素和病情进行了三年连续定期观察,统计分析结果表明:(1)病区食物对人体元素含量的影响可以分为二种情况,一是元素在食物链中含量过低,食物的变化虽可使机体该元素发生变化,但变幅甚小,致使其代谢处于缺乏状态;另一类是机体内这些元素的含量因食物的改变而发生较大变化,显示这些元素与病情无内在联系.(2)对发中硒等2l个元素与病情分别作单相关和多元逐步回归分析,结果证明,硒缺乏是导致大骨节病早期病变的基本因素,而其它元素与病情的关系具有不确定性.     

华北晚古生代聚煤盆地造盆构造述略

本文从盆地基底、盆地基盘及盆地发育期构造演化三个层次讨论了华北晚古生代聚煤盆地的造盆构造特征。文中提出了盆地基盘概念，阐述释了华北地台晚古生代积活动肇始的构造机理，对华力西阶段华北板块板缘活动及其板内地层记录进行了对应研究。     

天山地区地震韵律的初步探讨

根据新疆及苏联天山地区的地震目录和古地震研究成果,将整个天山地区的地震韵律划分为地震世、地震亚世、地震期、地震幕、地震阶五级,探讨了各级韵律的特征。估计了我国天山地区未来地震活动趋势。     

山东灵山沟金矿床的矿化阶段划分及成矿意义

灵山沟金矿床位于招掖成矿带中部,是一个兼具“玲珑式”“焦家式”双重矿化特征的典型矿床.该矿床的成矿演化过程大致可划分为4个矿化阶段:I.微量金一黄铁矿一石英阶段;Ⅱ.金一石英一黄铁矿阶段;Ⅲ.金一石英一多金属硫化物阶段;Ⅳ.少量金一黄铁矿一石英一碳酸盐阶段.不同阶段具有不同的矿化特征和成矿意义.Ⅱ、Ⅲ矿化阶段为主成矿阶段.上述认识在整个胶东金矿化集中区具普遍性意义.     

中国东部地洼阶段应力场与锡成矿

中国东部地壳地洼阶段的热塑性变形应力场有利于锡成矿。构造应力场对锡成矿的控制作用,表现为对成矿域的矿液运移势和能量场的控制。推导获得矿液运移势的计算公式:Vi=-(a·K_0/u)·[exp(σ_1-σ_2)]·(σ_1+σ_2),表明地壳构造应力场对成矿域矿液的运移和成矿部位的选择提供了有利的动力学条件。     

腐解9个月后杉木枯枝落叶化感物质对杉木的化感作用

采用有机溶剂与蒸馏水混和浸提杉木枯枝落叶腐解9个月后化感物质,应用杉木种子发芽试验进行生物检测.结果表明:杉木枯枝落叶腐解9个月后,杉木枯枝落叶中的弱极性化感物质对绝对发芽率、绝对发芽势、胚根长、胚轴长及干物质量等指标表现为抑制作用,对鲜物质量则表现为轻微的促进作用;极性化感物质对杉木种子发芽各指标均等表现为抑制作用.腐解土中的弱极性化感物质对杉木种子发芽各指标均表现为抑制作用,极性化感物质对绝对发芽率、绝对发芽势、胚轴长及干物质量等表现为抑制作用,但对胚根长、鲜物质量表现为促进作用.     

利用NOAA NDVI数据集监测冬小麦生育期的研究

探索了利用NDVI研究作物生育期的方法，对黄淮海冬麦区的返青期、抽穗期、成熟期进行了估测，并利用地面实际观测资料进行了验证。结果表明，NDVI数据对大范围农作物生育期监测是可行的。冬小麦遥感反青期由南到北依次推迟，符合春季绿波由南到北推移规律。对冬小麦遥感生育期年际变化分析表明，黄淮海平原返青期变化相对较大，而抽穗期和成熟期变化较小。根据历年月平均温度与返青期分析，冬小麦返青日期与2月份平均温度密切相关。对于局部地区，利用5d合成1km分辨率数据，且按农业生态分区分别制定生育期判别标准，估测效果将更好。