Movements of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Centroid and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Ni(n)o Regions

By using monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) data for the years from 1950 to 2000, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) climatology and anomalies are studied in this paper. The analysis of WPWP centroid (WPWPC) movement anomalies and the Nino-3 region SST anomalies( SSTA) seems to reveal a close, linear relation between the zonal WPWPC and Nino-3 region SSTA, which suggests that a 9' anomaly of the zonal displacement from the climatological position of the WPWPC corresponds to about a 1 ℃ anomaly in the Nino-3 region area-mean SST. This study connects the WPWPC zonal displacement with the Nino-3 SSTA, and it may be helpful in better understanding the fact that the WPWP eastward extension is conducive to the Nino-3 region SST increase during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.     

南黄海西部2007年4月的逆温跃层

利用南黄海西部2007-04的温盐实测资料,采用海洋层结谱表达法及自适应识别,得到逆温跃层的"五点三要素",形成强度要素平面分布图.分析表明,逆温跃层的存在与黄海暖流水有直接的关系:1)4月份,黄海暖流水受到的海面冷却仍是产生逆温跃层的普遍原因,在该海区黄海暖流向北延伸和向两侧拓展的区域都有该种类型的逆温跃层存在,位置相对较浅;2)但在偏南的黄海暖流主干区,海面冷却产生的效应被主流区的热量补充所抵消,逆温跃层很弱甚至消失,这是该月份逆温跃层分布区向北退缩并在南部中心附近呈现缺失区的主要原因;3)南下的鲁北沿岸流水的冷水叠加在黄海暖流水的暖水上方,使逆温跃层加强,使得冷暖水的作用区成为强逆温跃层区;4)黄海暖流左侧冷沿岸流水及右侧冷水的前端向黄海暖流楔入,其前端往往覆盖在底层高温高盐的黄海暖流水上方形成下逆温跃层,从而形成双逆温跃层.这些特点,较以前认知更加客观、全面、细致和准确.     

WAVEWATCHIII模式在渤海海浪预报的应用与检验

大连黄海、渤海海浪数值预报系统采用WAVEWATCHIII模式进行海浪预报,预报产品包括48 h内浪高、周期、浪向的逐3 h预报,并对其进行检验。结果表明：WAVEWATCHIII模式对渤海中部浪高模拟较好,浪高预报TS为71.7 %,对近岸海区浪高模拟相对差些。个例的检验表明,浪高最大值模拟较好,模拟浪高最大值出现的时间与实况基本吻合,浪高变化趋势预报也较好。AVEWATCHIII模式对两个周期个例进行检验,预报误差最低可达到0.17 s,预报效果较好。     

气候变化因素在蒙古西征中的可能作用研究

13世纪上半叶蒙古帝国发动的3次西征极大地改变了欧亚大陆的政治格局和历史进程,成为世界最为重大历史事件之一; 其发生原因一直是学术界关注的焦点,人们提出了各种假说,其中气候变化驱动说,即干旱或/和降温事件触发蒙古西征说最具影响力。文章依据古气候研究进展对蒙古西征的动因进行了重新研究,首先对蒙古西征各种假说进行了回顾,重点介绍和评述了气候变化驱动说,然后根据我国高分辨率气候重建资料,结合欧亚大陆其他地区的古气候重建成果,恢复了蒙古西征时期的气候背景; 结果发现蒙古西征并非发生在传统上所认为的干旱或/和降温期,而是发生在相当于中世纪温暖期中的中后期,而且当时蒙古民族主要生活住居地区还比较湿润。研究结果对传统的气候驱动说提出了挑战,认为蒙古西征并非干旱或/和降温事件所触发,相反,当时温暖而湿润的气候环境为蒙古西征提供了良好的物质基础。研究结果较好地解释了蒙古当时征讨的重点地区为什么是西北方而不是东南方的印度和南宋地区之谜。     

环境考古视角下的丝绸之路早期城址:从河西走廊到中亚

根据年代和考古遗址的空间分布,对河西走廊东部民勤三角城、金昌三角城,新疆的奎玉克协海尔古城,以及中亚的Kyzyl tepa古城的年代、形状、筑造方式等做了对比,并分析了不同时期的古城址和同区域的考古文化遗址之间的空间关系.结果 表明,这3个地区的古城址大致形成于相近的时代,且都是就地取材,充分利用原始的地势而筑城.城墙...     

2010年2月辽宁地区冻雨天气诊断分析

应用常规天气资料,从天气、气候及大气物理量场等方面,对2010年2月下旬发生在辽宁地区历史罕见的冰冻雨雪灾害性天气发生发展的成因、主要特征以及造成严重灾害的主要原因进行诊断分析。结果表明：500 hPa低涡分裂的小槽东移是冻雨天气的环流背景;700 hPa源源不断的水汽输送和低层辐合作用是降水产生的基本条件。地面强冷空气是冻雨天气的触发机制;高层为冷的冰晶层,对流层中低层有温度t>0℃的暖的融化层,近地面1-2 km为气温t<0℃的冷层,同时地面达到 0℃以下,这种复杂的逆温层是冻雨产生的天气条件。高层暖平流是维持中空暖层结构的重要条件之一,对暖层的建立和破坏起较大作用,暖层消失冻雨天气也随之结束。中低空水汽饱和度、地面温度和中低空上升、下沉运动与冻雨的强度有密切关系。     

阻尼连体结构地震响应影响参数研究

针对阻尼连体结构,采用串并联质点系层模型,沿连体设置方向施加El Centro1940地震波,讨论了毗邻结构自振周期比与连接体阻尼刚度变化对阻尼连体结构地震响应的影响。研究结果表明:毗邻结构自振周期比与连体阻尼刚度对结构的地震响应影响较大,存在一个使结构地震响应为最优的周期比与阻尼刚度值,为实际工程应用和研究提供一些参考。     

利用珊瑚生长率重建西沙海域罗马暖期中期海温变化

珊瑚生长率是记录海水表层温度（SST）的一个重要代用指标。本文以南海中北部西沙永兴岛罗马暖期期间发育的3个澄黄滨珊瑚（Porites lutea）为材料,测量它们的骨骼生长率,并利用珊瑚骨骼生长率与SST的关系式定量重建海温年际变化序列。结果显示：3个滨珊瑚（生长于120-59 BC、46 BC-14 AD和30 BC-28 AD期间）的平均生长率分别为0.88 cm/a（变化于0.53~1.24 cm/a之间）、0.90 cm/a（变化于0.58~1.53 cm/a之间）和1.12 cm/a（变化于0.71~1.46 cm/a之间）。据此重建同时段年平均SST,相应结果分别为26.7℃、26.8℃和27.3℃。2 kaBP前后（120-59 BC,46 BC-28 AD）西沙海域平均SST为26.9±0.4℃,低于现代（1981-2010 AD）约0.7℃。     

Relationships between southern Chilean varved lake sediments,precipitation and ENSO for the last 600 years

In this paper, the relationships between paleo-precipitation and the regional influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in South America are assessed from a high-resolution calendar varve-thickness record. Two short laminated sediment cores (53 and 61 cm length) from Lago Puyehue (40° S) are analysed by continuous varve measurements through the last 600 years. The calendar varve years are determined by the occurrence of graded planktonic-rich layers. The annual sediment accumulation rates are reconstructed by using the standard varve-counting methods on thin sections. The 1980–2000 varve-thickness record is interpreted in terms of climate through correlation with limnological and local monthly instrumental climate databases. The comparison between the standardized varve thickness with the instrumental records reveals a strong correlation (r = 0.75, р = 0.07) between the total varve thickness and the austral autumn/winter precipitation. We argue that strong austral winter winds and precipitation are the forcing factors for the seasonal turn-over and phytoplankton increase in the lake sediments. During strong El Nino events the precipitation and the winds decrease abnormally, hence reducing the thickness of the biogenic sediments deposited after the winter turn-over. Our results show one significant regional maximum peak of winter precipitation (>900 mm) in the mid 20th century and a significant period with lower winter precipitation (<400 mm) before the 15th century, i.e., the late Medieval Warm Period. The first peak in the mid 20th century is confirmed by the regional precipitation database. The influence of ENSO cycles over the last 600 years is assessed by spectral analysis in Fagel et al. (2007). The possible influence of the regional volcanism and/or the seismic activity on the local climate record is also discussed. This is the sixth in a series of eight papers published in this special issue dedicated to the 17,900 year multi-proxy lacustrine record of Lago Puyehue, Chilean Lake District. The papers in this special issue were collected by M. De Batist, N. Fagel, M. -F. Loutre and E. Chapron.     

Heavy mineral stratigraphy of sediments from the southern outer shelf of the East China Sea since the last glaciation using fuzzy C-means cluster method

Correspondence analysis and fuzzy C-means cluster methods were used to divide the stratigraphy of heavy mineral assemblages,and the sediment sources and depositional dynamics of the environment reconstructed.The assemblages were taken from marine sediments from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene in Core Q43 situated on the outer shelf of the East China Sea.Based on the variable boundaries of the mineral assemblage at 63 and 228 cmbsf (cm below sea floor),the core might have previously been divided into th...