基于EEMD-SARIMA的对流层延迟预测模型研究

在无气象数据的条件下,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和季节性自回归移动平均模型（SARIMA）的对流层延迟（ZTD）预报新方法,并分别选取长春、上海、乌鲁木齐3个地区4个季节的ZTD数据进行预测分析。结果表明,基于EEMD-SARIMA的ZTD改正预报模型能够满足不同地区、不同季节下的ZTD估计需求,是一种高精度的ZTD预报方法。     

深水导管架下水扶正过程定量风险分析

运用QRA技术(定量风险评估)对导管架下水过程进行深入分析,提出风险概率评价模型和事故损失综合评估方法。首先辨识潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后量化风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度,最后依据风险量化结果和ALARP(aslow as reasonably practically)原则对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施。通过定量风险分析,达到及时查找并消除各方面事故隐患的目的。     

基于PPGIS的乡村旅游社区景观价值变化研究——以丽江束河古镇为例

景观价值是人对环境的主观感知和效用评价,景观价值变化的研究能够帮助理解旅游社区的社会现象.以丽江束河古镇为例,采用参与式制图与半结构化访谈方法调查当地居民对旅游开发前后的感知景观价值,最终获取的有效问卷与填图为293份,提取空间数据点658个.通过对访谈结果进行编码和归纳得到旅游开发前后各7种景观价值类型.采用质性分析...     

Finite element analysis of the effect of corrosion on the behavior of reinforced earth walls

A simple model for the corrosion‐induced loss of stiffness and strength of the steel strips of earth‐reinforced walls was introduced in a finite element simulation of the long‐term behavior of the wall, in which the backfill‐strips interactions are taken into account by means of a generalized homogenization procedure (called a multiphase model). The results show an initial phase of slow displacements induced by the loss of stiffness, followed after a few decades by a steep acceleration of the displacements, leading to wall failure. The influences of the parameter controlling corrosion, the backfill cohesion and the heterogeneity of the corrosion process are discussed. Results are used to discuss a strategy for reinforced earth wall surveillance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国土地利用效益的时空特征研究

基于经济、社会、生态三维视角构建土地利用效益评价指标体系,运用灰色关联方法测度2004—2014年中国土地利用效益水平,并借助于Arc GIS空间分析技术分析其空间异质性及空间演变格局。从时序特征来看,2004—2014年全国土地利用效益波动性提升。从空间特征来看,中国土地利用效益的空间格局存在差异性,但差异日渐缩小;土地利用效益的增减空间分布不均,随着时间的推移,土地利用效益提升省份增加的幅度越来越大,土地利用效益降低省份的下降幅度越来越小;中国土地利用效益空间集聚特征明显,热点主要分布在内蒙古、辽宁和西藏,冷点主要分布在东南沿海地区;土地利用效益的变化也表现出集聚特征,东南沿海与西部地区为中国土地利用效益变化最强烈的集聚区,其土地利用效益变化呈互逆发展态势;中国土地利用效益变化具有明显的政策导向性。     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

Geochemical reconstruction of late Holocene drainage and mixing in Kluane Lake,Yukon Territory

The level of Kluane Lake in southwest Yukon Territory, Canada, has fluctuated tens of metres during the late Holocene. Contributions of sediment from different watersheds in the basin over the past 5,000 years were inferred from the elemental geochemistry of Kluane Lake sediment cores. Elements associated with organic material and oxyhydroxides were used to reconstruct redox fluctuations in the hypolimnion of the lake. The data reveal complex relationships between climate and river discharge during the late Holocene. A period of influx of Duke River sediment coincides with a relatively warm climate around 1,300 years BP. Discharge of Slims River into Kluane Lake occurred when Kaskawulsh Glacier advanced to the present drainage divide separating flow to the Pacific Ocean via Kaskawulsh and Alsek rivers from flow to Bering Sea via tributaries of Yukon River. During periods when neither Duke nor Slims river discharged into Kluane Lake, the level of the lake was low and stable thermal stratification developed, with anoxic and eventually euxinic conditions in the hypolimnion.     

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。     

中国工业中小企业省区分布及其影响因素

20 世纪90 年代乡镇企业改革以来,中国中小企业空间格局发生了显著变化。现有地理学文献主要关注中小企业空间集聚、集群研究以及八九十年代的中小企业空间分布问题,对于近20 年来宏观层面中小企业空间分布的研究比较薄弱,实证研究尤为缺乏。基于文献回顾,运用GIS 空间分析、测算变差系数CV等方法,分析1997-2010 年中国工业中小企业省区分布的时空格局变化;在此基础上,选取20 个影响因素并建立计量模型,运用SPSS及Eviews软件,系统测算导致中国工业中小企业省区分布变化的影响因素,并根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。研究表明：① 1997-2010 年间,中国工业中小企业的省区分布更加集中、空间差异不断扩大;② 中国工业中小企业省区分布格局是多因素综合作用的结果,其中地区经济实力、金融环境、市场环境及技术创新是首要因素,信息化、劳动力、铁路密度及农业资源是次要因素。     

Research on the Methods of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation for Active Hydrogen Maserstwo

Active hydrogen maser is the main frequency standard for establishing and maintaining the time scale. It has the characteristics of high short-term stability and low phase noise. At present, it plays an increasingly important role in the international atomic time (TAI) and various local time scales. Firstly, in combination with the internal state parameters of an active hydrogen maser, the correlation between the internal state parameters and the comparison data of a hydrogen maser is analyzed, and a method for the performance monitoring of a hydrogen maser is proposed. Secondly, according to the characteristics of hydrogen maser performance, a method for evaluating the performance of a hydrogen maser is given. The hydrogen maser performance includes mainly two aspects, namely the frequency stability and predictability. The performances of two types of active hydrogen masers (CH1-75 and MHM-2010) are evaluated by this method. The correlation analysis of the atomic clock state parameters and comparison data shows that the state parameter monitoring can effectively predict the variation of the hydrogen maser performance. The evaluation results of atomic clock frequency stability and predictability show that the atomic clock with a higher medium-and-long term frequency stability has a better predictability. There are two methods for the predictability evaluation, one is based on the data published by BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Measures), and another one is based on the quadratic model. Both methods are consistent with the weights published by BIPM. Therefore, the two methods can be used as a quantitative method to evaluate the predictability of a hydrogen maser.